Currently, there is no immediate danger of ground action from Belarus.

The Belarusian army is not ready to invade the territory of Ukraine.

This was stated by the advisor of the Office of the President Oleksiy Arestovych.

"The Belarusian army is not ready (for an invasion. - Ed.) and is not willing, the Russian leadership is willing, but not ready," Arestovich noted.

According to his information, about ten thousand Russian servicemen are currently in Belarus.

But this is not a single group, but a "pickle" from different units with different tasks.

Some of them generally solve the problems of rear and infrastructural support.

According to the OP adviser, in order for the danger from the north to become significant, the number of ground troops of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus should reach at least 20-25 thousand troops formed into a strike group.

"This is still a long way off, if it is generally in the plans. So far, everything looks like the main task of the Belarusian group of Russian troops is to create a threat without an invasion, so that we cannot withdraw troops from the defense of the north to other directions," Arestovych believes. .

What is possible?

At the same time, the OP adviser does not rule out new strikes by Iranian drones, Iskander-type missiles, and Russian aircraft from the airspace of Belarus.

Is an attack being prepared from Belarus?

On October 10, it became known that Lukashenko and Putin agreed on the deployment of a joint regional grouping of troops within the borders of the Union State.

On October 15, the first echelons of Russian troops arrived in Belarus. 

At the same time, the Belarusian monitoring group "Belarusian Gayun" recorded that in mid-October, Belarus transported by rail the majority of military equipment from the border regions back to the places of permanent deployment.

The group also reported that Lukashenka's regime sent tanks and Urals removed from storage warehouses to occupied Donetsk and Luhansk.

Vadym Mozheyko, an analyst at the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Studies, confirmed that Russia exports, not imports, military equipment from Belarus.

Today, Ukrainian military officer Valery Markus said that residents of the Volyn and Rivne regions, which border Belarus, should leave for a while to safer places. 

At the same time, the head of the Rivne OVA Vitaly Koval assured that the situation on the border with Belarus is calm.

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