The holding of President
Xi Jinping
's third term under the absolute consolidation of power in both political and economic terms.
Which direction is going to lead China?
and will cause conflicts with the United States
expand more or not
Including what risks lurking under the clutches of such a great power today,
"we"
go to listen to the analysis.
A difficult and challenging problem of the current Chinese leader from
"Assoc. Prof. Dr. Somchai Pakhaphaswiwat", academician in international economics and politics,
in Part 2 of this discussion...
"Assoc. Prof. Dr. Somchai Phakhaphaswiwat" Academician on International Economics and Politics
Read more: What will Thailand gain from APEC 2022 meeting?
Xi Jinping and the Conflict with the United States
“In my personal opinion, I think Probably worse than before That's because what Xi Jinping is doing is what the US side has. see it as a challenge.”
What are these challenges? :
1. Investment uncertainty in China
Xi Jinping's rise to power in the third term had one very important policy,
"refocusing on socialist domination of capitalism"
.
including until
China's internal capital group
must not only hope for profit
But the ideology of China's security needs to be taken into account as well.
According to the principle of mutual prosperity or
Common Prosperity
2. Expanding the Role of the Communist Party
What is now evident is that China is expanding the role of the Communist Party in an attempt to tell the world that
"China's system of governance is better than that of the United States,"
thus equating to a direct ideological confrontation with the United States.
3. The absolute consolidation of power
Before Xi Jinping
's 3rd period of power came into power ,
within China, there was a very pronounced division of power between the government and the Communist Party.
while the Chinese government
will have a duty to implement the policy
made earlier, it was clearly noticed that
China's president always walks alongside the prime minister.
But by the time
"Xi Jinping"
came to power as the president of China.
This is a position that holds power as both the Communist Party's secretary-general, the president, and the military's highest authority.
One thing to note is that
Chinese Premier
Li
Keqiang is
very distant from
Xi Jinping
.
"Xi Jinping"
And this point is even more pronounced.
After coming to power in the third term, because what happened was
that Li Keqiang
was never seen near China's supreme leader.
It is expected that in March next year (2023), when the General Assembly of the Communist Party of China will be held,
Mr. Li Qiang
, a close friend who is very close to
Xi Jinping
, will be elected. be the next prime minister
This means that
Xi Jinping
will have more comprehensive power over the Chinese government.
“Xi Jinping's decision on economic administration by the Chinese government in the third era will no longer be an economic point of view. but will be viewed primarily in the perspective of communist ideology which this obsession means Once the economic domination It may be a technology obtained from the private sector. to use in the development of the armed forces. Therefore, conflicts arising from mistrust will be very high. And this is why Why does the US have to continue to block China's access to technology? especially in the semiconductor industry.”
Xi Jinping on the mark of making China a superpower :
China's vision now:
1.
By 2035
, China will be modern socialism.
It is a socialist that views the economy under the supervision of socialism.
This may cause the economy to expand slowly but with quality, that is, capitalism must be consistent with the stability of China and
2.
By 2049,
China will have to become a world power.
For this reason, he began to see the phenomenon.
Expanding the influence of the Chinese army into different territories
Especially Africa, ASEAN and Latin America
, both of which are issues that create dissatisfaction with the United States.
both in terms of economy and security at all
And will definitely expand the conflict between the two sides in the future.
Xi Jinping on the issue of the consolidation of power:
politics :
“The absolute consolidation of power On the one hand, it could make Xi Jinping stronger in both political and security matters. but on the other hand This kind of strength can also bring risks.”
Political strength under the control of the Communist Party
Even if it could make the interior of China calm for a while
But it may be to keep the dissatisfaction secretly.
In addition, one thing must not be forgotten is the intensive examination that this
Corruption checks are often included.
which, on the one hand, is acting in a straightforward manner
But on the other hand, it must be acknowledged that this issue is being used as a pretext to eliminate political opponents as well.
which is equivalent to gradually increasing the enemy by default
Both of these issues could become fuel for future eruptions.
economy :
In addition, one thing that must not be forgotten is
"Trouble with the stomach"
because China is currently facing the lowest economic growth in
50 years
and most analysts.
It is also estimated that from now on, about
5-10 years
from now , China's economic growth rate
At best, it might only grow by
4%
, if that's true.
In addition to keeping China out of the middle-income trap of its vision of becoming a modern socialist country by 2035, it has succeeded.
At present, China is still beset by various economic problems.
The trade war with the United States, the deprivation of the semiconductor industry, the high public debt at 300% of GDP, the impact of the Covid-zero policy, and the bad debt crisis in the real estate sector.
“When politically blocked but the economy is good People may be able to accept it, but on the other hand, if politically blocked, the economy is still not good. I believe there is definitely a problem. And this is a very challenging question for Xi Jinping to be able to manage the economy under the pressure of this geopolitical conflict. How to respond to the direction of becoming a superpower and maintain peace in the country?”
Xi Jinping with BRICS partners :
“In my personal opinion, I think the BRICS are unlikely to go very far. Because it is a group that has internal conflicts already.”
It is very unlikely that the
BRICS
will be closely integrated.
Because India has no way of trusting China, or South Africa and Brazil.
It wouldn't have given Russia much of a benefit, so it could only come together for a certain amount of reciprocity, such as building bargaining power with the United States and its allies, as well as having enough talks. will be able to negotiate amongst themselves in terms of trade cooperation
But to achieve a quintessential integration is difficult because the five countries, namely China, Russia, India, South Africa and Brazil, have different geopolitical and security orientations.
Xi Jinping and the APEC meeting in Thailand :
“There may be a strong role played by Russia. But there will be no full assistance to the Russian side.”
in fact
Russia relies more on China.
But at this time, China and Russia simply are on the same side of the conflict with the United States.
The two sides therefore seem close to each other.
However, it must be admitted that in terms of economic issues
China has more ties with the United States and Europe than Russia.
This is confirmed by the latest.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
recently traveled to China for the first time.
To enter into an agreement with China's
COSCO SHIPPING Lines for a
44.9%
stake
in the Hamburg container terminal.
Therefore, China is not fully with Russia.
And this role will continue during the participation of the APEC meeting in Thailand.
or at best
China may say broadly, for example, asking for cooperation in solving the food crisis.
This is partly the result of the Ukrainian war or calls for both sides to turn to talks only.
Special news team, Thairath Online reports.
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