Briefly:

- In a joint statement, Putin, Aliyev and Pashinyan bypassed the most acute problems in relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

- Armenia's hopes for CSTO support turned out to be in vain.

— The CSTO is unable not only to guarantee the security of its member countries from external threats, but even to prevent conflicts between the members themselves.

— Lukashenka shouted at Pashinyan at the CSTO summit because he was dissatisfied with Armenia's position.

Is Putin a peacemaker?

Today it sounds like a political joke.

But different things happen in international life.

From the very beginning of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, it was Russia that acted as a peacemaker, moderator, and mediator.

And now she is trying to continue to perform this function.

On October 31, negotiations took place in Sochi between the President of Azerbaijan

and the Prime Minister of Armenia

with the mediation of Putin.

Recently, there has been an aggravation of the conflict over Karabakh in the region.

Therefore, great hopes were placed on the Sochi meeting.

As a result of the negotiations, a joint statement was adopted.

The first impression of this document is rather skeptical.

Reminiscent of a declaration of peaceful intentions.

The most acute problems in relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been overcome.

Nothing is said about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh: it is not clear how this issue will be resolved.

How will the Azerbaijani transit to its exclave Nakhchivan through the Armenian territory be implemented?

Russia's peacekeeping role was only mentioned, without specifying the role and functions of Russian peacekeeping forces.

For some reason, the "importance of launching tripartite inter-parliamentary contacts" was noted.

This is strange, because if Armenia has a full-fledged parliament, then in Azerbaijan (as well as in Russia) the parliament is approximately the same as in Belarus.

That is, none.

For Armenia, Russia remains the only hope and guarantor of security in a geopolitically hostile region.

Therefore, Russian support is very important for the Armenian side.

But the fact is that after the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia's geopolitical role weakened.

Even in the post-Soviet space, Moscow is no longer perceived as a reliable source of support.

Very distinctive critical statements against Russia, which were heard recently by the presidents of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.

Moscow failed to prevent the recent military conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

If we return to the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, Turkey, which has squeezed Russia in this region, is exerting an increasing influence on it.

It is very telling how on October 28 (i.e. three days before the negotiations in Sochi) an extraordinary CSTO summit was held online at the initiative of Armenia.

The report on the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border prepared by the CSTO mission headed by CSTO Secretary General

.

According to the website of the Armenian government, Yerevan had "clear expectations that, firstly, the CSTO would give a certain political assessment of the incident, and, secondly, adopt a road map in the matter of restoring the territorial integrity of Armenia."

That is, the Armenian side hoped that the CSTO would condemn Azerbaijan and support Armenia.

The very fact that Pashinyan appeals to the CSTO means a certain disappointment in Russia's position.

Armenia counted on at least the psychological support of the allies.

But it did not wait.

It should be noted here that out of six CSTO member countries, three are Muslim (including Azerbaijan).

In the East, it has a certain meaning.

And Russia and Belarus do not care about Karabakh now.

They would somehow get out of the Ukrainian trap, into which they drove themselves.

On November 1, Lukashenka, receiving Zasy, actually admitted that the CSTO is not capable of fulfilling the role of a guarantor of the security of the member countries against external threats, but even preventing conflicts between the members themselves.

However, he did not dare to conclude that the main reason for the transformation of the CSTO into a "paper tiger" is the weakening of Russia's geopolitical role.

A notable episode is how Lukashenka shouted at Pashinyan at the CSTO summit on October 28.

Apparently, he considered it permissible, because he considers himself a patriarch (he has held the post of president longer than other leaders of the post-Soviet space).

Therefore, by the right of an elder, he has the right to shout at the young, to teach them about life.

Second, he is trying to play the role of Putin's right-hand man.

And, as Moscow's only ally, he considers it possible to speak in the voice of the Russian president.

The phrase "we are with Putin" has become almost a meme.

Thirdly, it follows from Lukashenka's statements during the meeting with Zasem that he is completely on the Azerbaijani side, justifies him (they say, "they put the president of Azerbaijan in a corner").

Finally, fourthly, the meaning of this sentiment of Pashinyan also lies in the fact that, as they say, Putin and I are now waging a historic battle with the West, and you are fumbling under your feet with your petty problems.

Yes, you are still trying to appeal to European structures: "Why did they involve the European Union, why do they involve the OSCE?".

A rather specific attitude towards an ally.

(Let me remind you that Nikol Pashinyan is one of the few leaders of foreign states who congratulated Lukashenka on his victory in the presidential elections in 2020).

And one more remark of Lukashenka during the meeting with Zasem draws attention.

Speaking about Azerbaijan's war with Armenia, he said: "Almost 300 people have been killed and they are still thinking about something else."

Against the background of the fact that tens of thousands of people have already died in Ukraine as a result of Russian aggression, to which Belarus is directly involved, this reproach sounds quite cynical.

That's why the role of peacemaker is bad for both Putin and Lukashenka.

This is clearly a foreign image for them.

The opinions expressed in the blogs represent the views of the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect the position of the editors.

• Valer Karbalevich

  He was born in 1955.

  Graduated from the history faculty of BSU, candidate of historical sciences, associate professor.

  Radio Svaboda political commentator.

  
  
  

  karbalevich@gmail.com

  Subscribe