◎John J. Tkacik

◎John J. Tkacik

In covert operations, they used to say, "Once it's a coincidence. Two times it's a coincidence. The third time, it's hostilities."

And in the foreign service, "the President of the United States has said the same thing four times in a row, and that is policy".

Please read on...

Saying the same thing four times in a row is policy

On August 19, 2021, in an exclusive interview with George Stephanopoulos, host of ABC News, US President Biden talked about the necessity for the US to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan. The chaos it has caused, but also insists that the U.S. global defense commitment remains rock-solid.

"The United States has a sacred commitment to Article 5 (NATO) that if anyone invades or takes action against our NATO allies, the United States will respond, and the same is true for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. There is simply no way (with Afghanistan) Compare."

Now, for those readers who don't know much about U.S. defense treaties, let me explain what President Biden refers to as "Article 5": In the format of the U.S. defense treaty, Article 5 consistently states that "in the event of an armed attack in", the States parties "will act in accordance with their constitutional procedures to confront this common danger".

This is the diplomatic term for "war on the aggressor".

However, in the case of Taiwan, the United States Congress enacted certain provisions in the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to replace the Article V Commitment of the 1955 Mutual Defense Treaty between the Republic of China and the United States of America; Items 4 and 6 of Article 2, paragraph 2, replace the first half of the old mutual defense treaty "Article 5" on "armed attack" and "dealing with common danger", and Article 3, paragraph 3, replaces the first half on "armed attack" and "dealing with common danger". the second half of the Constitutional Process.

We can understand that President Biden directly equates the defense commitments to Taiwan under Articles 2 and 3 of the Taiwan Relations Act with the US's Article 5 defense commitments to its formal treaty allies.

When media reporters called the White House national security staff for comment, the best they could get was "our policy on Taiwan has not changed" and "we still have lasting interests in peace and stability on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, and we believe this is of great importance to more The security and stability of the wider Indo-Pacific region is of paramount importance," explained.

Most of the media agreed that this should be a euphemism for "the president's slip of the tongue," and concluded that the White House was "taking back" the president's position.

Still, forty-three years ago, President Biden voted for the Taiwan Relations Act when he was a young senator from Delaware, so he can certainly make a credible claim that he has both No mistakes were made and no attempt was made to change policy.

In any case, a few weeks later, on September 9, 2021, President Biden held a 90-minute one-on-one video conference with Chinese President Xi Jinping, in which he believed that the two sides reached a consensus on the Taiwan issue.

The president later said: "I talked to Xi about Taiwan. We agreed ... we will abide by the Taiwan agreement." He also said, "I made it clear that I don't think he (Xi Jinping) should do anything but abide by the agreement."

What "agreement"?

Allow me to repeat a point I made repeatedly in my previous week's monograph, the agreement is: "As long as China claims to have a 'basic policy of seeking a peaceful resolution of its differences with Taiwan', the United States will also pretend to have a 'one China' "policy."

Last October's "Citizens' Assembly" made a firmer statement

I don't want to speculate on what President Xi Jinping might have done soon after that angered Biden (perhaps the Oct. 13 headline "Chinese troops conduct beach-landing exercises about 100 miles from Taiwan"), but A year ago, on October 21, 2021, at CNN's "town hall meeting" in Baltimore, Maryland, President Biden made this firmer. 's statement.

"Can you commit to defending Taiwan?" asked one attendee. The president replied without hesitation, "Yes, I will." CNN host Anderson.

Anderson Cooper was startled: "So you're saying, if China attacks Taiwan, will the United States defend Taiwan?" Mr. Biden said, "Yes." Cooper then asked again, and Biden said: "Yes, we have a commitment to that." Cooper quickly switched to an ad, after which he asked the former vice president to recount how the late Secretary of State Colin Powell was in the Secret Service at an unknown location. On the racing track, driving their Chevrolet Corvette sports car embarrassingly.

The story of the Corvette's embarrassing car didn't make the news.

But the next afternoon, the media asked the White House to clarify Biden's remarks on the Taiwan issue.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki took the trouble to repeat that "our policy has not changed," adding that "he has not expressed an intention to change policy, nor has he made a decision to change policy." As expected, the Wall Street Journal reported, "The White House retracts Mr. Biden's remarks about Taiwan."

However, either the White House did not "take back" the president's speech, or President Biden did not receive the memo prepared for him by his staff.

Because on the evening of Monday, November 15, 2021, Biden and Xi Jinping held another lengthy video conference.

"It was a good meeting," Biden told a group of reporters.

However, Xi Jinping will certainly not agree with what Biden calls "a very good meeting."

"Is there any progress on the Taiwan issue?" the crowd asked.

Biden assured them (permit me to quote): "Yes. We've been very vocal about our support for the Taiwan Act (referring to the Taiwan Relations Act), that's it. It's independent and it makes its own decisions."

Unable to believe what they heard, the American news media collectively dismissed the president's remarks as yet another slip of the tongue.

But on February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine and the situation changed catastrophically.

On the third day after the Russian invasion, the US State Department was so engrossed in the crisis that it completely forgot to celebrate the fiftieth anniversary of the Shanghai Communiqué.

Then, the State Department launched a campaign to refute the Chinese Foreign Ministry's misinterpretation of the meaning of the U.S. "One China Policy."

By May 2022, the truth finally began to emerge in global news media coverage.

On May 23, the New York Times reported from Seoul, South Korea, that "perhaps President Biden was not speaking off-script at all. Maybe he just didn't take his speech seriously at all."

At a major press conference in Tokyo the day before, and after insisting that U.S. policy toward Taiwan "has not changed at all," President Biden declared that the U.S. "made a promise" that "if China launches a military aggression, we will intervene to defend Taiwan".

This statement is not ambiguous at all.

The president explained his thinking to the media: "The idea that it can be taken by force and can be taken by force is not appropriate." He also said that an attack on Taiwan "would destabilize the entire region, like another actions in Ukraine (invaded), and that would be an even greater burden.”

Some White House aides may be trying to "back off" the president's remarks, but according to the New York Times, many of the president's aides accused colleagues who deliberately stepped on the brakes of "not only not supporting, but undermining the boss's statement."

Then again, on Sunday, September 18, 2022, on "60 Minutes," the nationally popular Sunday night news program, Biden was asked, "Will the U.S. military defend Taiwan? He replied, "Yes, if in fact there is an unprecedented attack." The president reiterated that the United States still adheres to the "one China" policy and said the United States does not encourage Taiwan's independence.

He then explained: "We're not going to take action, we're not going to encourage them to be independent ... that's their decision."

Whatever the White House tried to take back was gone by the next day.

President Biden's chief Indo-Pacific policy aide, Kurt Campbell, reminded authoritatively, "The president's speech was very clear. I do think our policy has been consistent, has not changed, and will continue to be so in the future."

A week later, the scene shifted to the State Department, where spokesman Ned Price was once again pestered by his nemesis, Associated Press reporter Matt Lee: "I just wanted to make sure that my understanding was correct, that your '' One China' policy means that Taiwan is part of China and you respect China's territorial integrity and sovereignty over Taiwan."

Price responded tactfully: "Matt, the 'Our One China' policy has not changed. For forty years, the 'Our One China' policy has not changed." Li Yi further pressed: "So, your 'One China' policy has not changed. What is China's policy regarding China's territorial integrity...?"

State Department: No position on Taiwan sovereignty

Hearing this, Price interrupted him: "It is very, very basic that we have not taken a position on the issue of sovereignty. But the 'our one China' policy has not changed. This is a position that we have expressed very clearly in public. ”

Moreover, Price also disclosed an extraordinary message: "Secretary Blinken made this position very clearly privately when he met (Chinese Foreign Minister) Wang Yi on Friday (September 23)... It did not take a position. However, this policy has been at the heart of the US approach to Taiwan since 1979 and is still valid today.”

First of all, "independence is their decision"!

And now "we don't take a stand on sovereignty"!

This is a statement that has not been made publicly by a State Department spokesman in half a century.

Coupled with the president's four promises that "US troops" will defend Taiwan, the State Department spokesman's statement was finalized: US policy toward Taiwan has not changed in the past four decades.

What has changed is the "don't talk about it" policy.

(The author Tan Shenge is a retired U.S. diplomat who worked in Taipei and Beijing respectively. He is currently the director of the "Future Asia Program" of the Center for International Assessment and Strategy of the United States. Translated by Chen Hongda, International Press Center)

On Sunday, September 18, 2022, US President Joe Biden said in an exclusive interview with the news program "Sixty Minutes" that "if Taiwan is attacked like never before, the United States will send troops to defend Taiwan".

(reproduced from CBS channel)