The Chinese military conducted naval exercises along the southeast coast in July 2019.

(Reuters file photo)

[Compiled by Chen Chengliang/Comprehensive Report] The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (the 20th National Congress) is about to be held. Experts have analyzed that in the years after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it is a time when the US military's military power is transformed, its equipment is upgraded, and China's military power continues to rise. The situation in the Taiwan Strait may enter a critical period, and the United States maintains a strong enough deterrence and denial force to prevent China from rashly using force, which is crucial to maintaining stability and peace in the Taiwan Strait.

"Voice of America" ​​(VOA) reported that despite various indications that China will not use force against Taiwan in the near future, since last year, high-level U.S. military and intelligence circles have successively pointed out the possibility of the next few years. Among them, the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. Army The chairman of the conference, Milley, said in testimony to the House Armed Services Committee in June last year that Chinese leader Xi Jinping has advanced the development of the ability to attack Taiwan from 2035 to 2027; CIA Deputy Director David Cohen (David Cohen) In an interview in September, it was revealed that Xi had instructed the People's Liberation Army to prepare for the occupation of Taiwan in 2027, earlier than the United States expected.

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John Aquilino, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, shared the same sentiment, describing 2027 as a "military task."

In recent years, in response to China's challenges, the United States has stepped up research and development of a large number of new weapons, but most of them have not yet been put into production service. 2's B-21 tracking strategic bomber is not expected to become effective until the early 2030s, while the planned new generation destroyer (DDG-X) is not expected to start construction until fiscal year 2028.

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Committee (USCC) reported last year that the deterrence challenge facing U.S. and Taiwanese leaders will become more severe in the coming years.

The report said that in the next five years, the United States plans to eliminate a number of old combat platforms to create a smaller, more modern force, which is regarded as a "window of opportunity" for Chinese leaders. During this period, the US military the least capable of intervention.

Therefore, Melanie Sisson, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, advocates that the United States should formulate a comprehensive plan including diplomatic, economic, and military operations, and make it clear to Beijing that a violent attack on Taiwan will pay a huge price. .

The report mentioned that, including war games and other research and analysis, regardless of the outcome, the cost of the US involvement in the Taiwan Strait conflict is very heavy. Therefore, compared with whether the US military is capable of defending Taiwan, it is more important whether the US military can maintain a strong enough deterrence against China. and deterrence, so that the Communist army did not dare to use force rashly.

Michele Flournoy, the former undersecretary of the US Department of Defense for Policy, published a special article in June last year, pointing out that if the US can convince the outside world that the US military is capable of sinking all Chinese ships and merchant ships in the South China Sea within 72 hours, it may effectively deter the Communists invade Taiwan.

He believes that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is the most likely candidate for a third world war, and that the United States now needs to execute several different investments and look beyond domestic politics to achieve a deterrent outcome.

For a long time, deterrence strategy has been one of the important concepts underpinning the US military's superiority.

In the case of Taiwan, the deterrence that makes China understand that it will lose a war in the Taiwan Strait is called "deterrence by denial." Another deterrence strategy, "deterrence by punishment," refers to trying to persuade China, leading it to believe that even the costs of winning would far outweigh any possible gains.

Simeone argues that the strategy of punitive deterrence is pragmatic, and even if it fails, it preserves options for U.S. policymakers—it neither starts war immediately nor precludes a subsequent decision to go to war to defend or expel the aggressor.