In order to attack Ukraine, Belarus
In order to attack Ukraine, Belarus
needs to partially or fully mobilize its troops, but it will probably not be possible to provide everyone with the necessary weapons, because Lukashenko is giving them to Russia in echelons.
And the formation of a joint group with the troops of the Russian Federation for Belarus will actually be an occupation of its territory.
Military expert Oleg Zhdanov expressed this opinion in an interview with TSN.ua.
"More adequate and with a logical meaning is the statement of the Minister of Defense of Belarus, in which he expressed that we do not want to fight if you (Ukrainians - Ed.) do not fight. And Lukashenko makes political statements in the context of Putin. He tries to play for two fronts - on the one hand, he distributes all military supplies as much as possible.
He gives ammunition in echelons
, he is now giving
long-term storage equipment
in echelons . And how will he deploy the army?
If you go on the offensive, you have to announce mobilization, either partial or full.
What are they for plant? Distribute rifles and form marching companies, as it was in 1941? No, it won't be like that," Zhdanov says.
The expert also refers to the report of the head of the State Border Service of Blorus, which, according to him, says that Ukraine has turned the border into a fortress.
"Our border is equipped, all roads are mined, bridges are blown up, there are minefields all around - this is what the Belarusian chief border guard reports.
We cannot cross
it ourselves, because we are fenced there with barbed wire and why do we need Belarus. But, if they will to try (to go on the offensive - Ed.), then they understand," Zhdanov says.
In his opinion, Putin and Lukashenko will deploy a joint grouping of troops to attack Ukraine if the second wave of mobilization is successful.
"Lukashenko announces the formation of a joint grouping of the allied state, but
they will form it if the second wave of mobilization is successful
and they bring 120,000 Russian conscripts there. By the way,
for Belarus this will be an actual occupation of its territory.
Because 120,000 Russian soldiers will exceed three times the strength of the military component of the Armed Forces of Belarus. So, I think that Lukashenko is continuing his game in the sense that "
I am preparing for war, but I am still a little bit not ready
," concluded the expert.
Threat from Belarus
According to the Ministry of Defense of Belarus, on October 10,
Putin and Lukashenko deployed a joint group of troops near the border of Ukraine.
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Putin is trying to persuade Lukashenka to enter into an open war against Ukraine.
6 battalions of enemy troops
are concentrated near the border of Ukraine .
The head of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin ,
recorded a video
message in which he stated that the Republic of Belarus does not want to fight "either with Lithuanians, nor with Poles, nor even more so with Ukrainians."
The "Belarusian Gayun" monitoring group drew attention to the fact that the video appeal of Lukashenka's officials is a "rare story".
Adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Vadym Denisenko, suggested that
Lukashenko could send up to 7,000 of
his soldiers to the Russian army.
According to the advisor of the President's Office Oleksiy Arestovych, there will be no attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus in the near future, because
the Belarusian army is not ready for this
- Lukashenka's regime has simply already given Putin stocks of weapons and equipment.
At the same time, the director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, Mykhailo Samus, believes that the
probability of involving the troops of Belarus in a direct conflict with Ukraine is increasing
due to the newly appointed commander by Russia.
However, if the Belarusians dare to do this, it will be the downfall of Lukashenka.
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