Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to blackmail Ukraine and its allies with nuclear weapons.

However, the preparation of a nuclear attack is complex and multi-stage, and it is unlikely that it will be possible to hide it from Western intelligence.

Experts debate whether the Kremlin would dare to issue such an order. 

TSN.ua investigated whether there are signs of Russia's preparation for the use of nuclear weapons and what the relevant procedure is.

Grounds for a nuclear strike

In the summer of 2020, the President of the Russian Federation,

Vladimir Putin

, signed a decree on the foundations of the state policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence.

The document lists

four reasons for using nuclear weapons

.

In particular, it is:

  • a) receipt of reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies;

  • b) the enemy's use of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction on the territories of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies;

  • c) the influence of the enemy on critically important state or military facilities of the Russian Federation, the disabling of which will lead to the disruption of retaliatory actions of nuclear forces;

  • d) aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened.

According to the decree, the decision to use nuclear weapons must be made by the President of the Russian Federation

.

The Ministry of Defense of Russia, through the General Staff, "carries out direct planning and implementation of measures of an organizational and military nature in the field of nuclear deterrence."

Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation,

Sergey Lavrov

, stated that all Russian laws and doctrines, including the nuclear one, will also apply to the territories of Ukraine annexed through fake "referendums" after they are enshrined in the Russian constitution.

If Putin gives the order

Military expert

Oleg Zhdanov

said in a commentary on TSN.ua that Vladimir Putin will not be able to prepare a nuclear attack by surprise so that the West does not find out about it.

According to him, "

as soon as the question of the use of nuclear weapons is raised in the Kremlin at a meeting, Western intelligence will already know about it

."

Zhdanov also explained the procedure for returning and executing the order to use nuclear weapons:

"

From giving the order to use can take from several hours to several days

. This will depend, firstly, on what type of weapons will be chosen, and secondly - on the technical readiness of the means of its use. For example, all places of storage of Russian of nuclear weapons are beyond the Urals. So the issue of transportation will be the main one to deliver this charge to a place where the means of application and the nuclear warhead itself can be combined."

The military expert did not rule out that

Putin's entourage might get scared and block his order

.

When asked whether such a scenario is possible, he replied:

"Quite likely. By the way, the further the events on the front develop in our favor, the greater the probability that this team may simply not reach the executor."

According to Zhdanov, the Kremlin's threats to use nuclear weapons should not be taken seriously yet.

"

As long as no practical steps have been taken to use nuclear weapons, it all looks like bluff and blackmail

. As soon as Putin, after announcing the use, starts discussing it in meetings with security forces, then we can perceive it as a real threat. So far, it's bluff and blackmail ", he emphasized.

Will the Kremlin dare: opinions for and against

The head of Ukrainian military intelligence,

Kyrylo Budanov

, believes that the Russian Federation will not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine in the near future.

"I can say only one thing: as of now, there is no reason to believe that a nuclear strike can be carried out on the territory of Ukraine in the near future," Budanov assured.

British Defense Minister 

Ben Wallace

assesses the likelihood of Putin's use of nuclear weapons as highly unlikely.

"Putin got a very clear idea at the meetings with the leadership of India and China, what is acceptable and what is not acceptable," - noted Wallace, but added that Putin is not acting rationally.

Former CIA Director and retired Army General

David Petraeus

says there is currently no real evidence that the Russian Federation is going to use weapons of mass destruction.

"If we hypothetically imagine that Russia will launch a nuclear attack on Ukraine, the United States and NATO countries will join forces to destroy the Russian army in Ukraine, as well as every ship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation in occupied Crimea and the Black Sea," the general said.

In turn, Russian political analyst

Valery Solovei

believes that the Kremlin has already decided on the use of nuclear weapons.

"The decision on the use of tactical nuclear weapons has been made. It's a question of time and place," Solovei claims.

What targets can Russia choose?

Analysts at the American

Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

claim that Putin may decide to use tactical nuclear weapons if he is sure that NATO and the West will not give him an answer.

"According to our estimates, Putin has two main options for using tactical nuclear weapons: targeting key Ukrainian land lines of communication and command centers in order to paralyze offensive operations, and targeting large concentrations of Ukrainian forces near the contact line," analysts say .

Citing military sources, The

Times

reported that Putin intends to demonstrate his readiness to use weapons of mass destruction with a nuclear test on Ukraine's borders.

According to the publication, for this purpose the President of the Russian Federation directed the so-called "nuclear train" in the direction of the front line.

However, the use of such weapons on the battlefield is associated with great risk - 

in the event of a mistake, Russian cities on the border with Ukraine may suffer

, writes The Times.

Bloomberg 

reports

that the low-yield tactical nuclear weapons are located in more than a dozen warehouses across Russia and it will take time to get them to the launchers.

"At a certain level of readiness, weapons are taken out of storage and moved to some other place. This will be detected with the help of satellites or other means," said Pavlo Podvig, a nuclear security expert at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva.

An agency source close to the Russian Ministry of Defense said that if Putin had decided on a demonstration nuclear strike, he

would have struck a military facility on the territory of Ukraine

.

Read also:

  • "Putin is angry and humiliated, so he is capable of any decisions" - a Western expert

  • Where will Russia aim and what might a nuclear strike on Ukraine look like: analysts' forecast

  • Dangerous moment or bluff: how the world reacts to Putin's nuclear blackmail and mobilization in the Russian Federation