Briefly:

• By the process of accepting "LPR", "DNR", Zaporizhia and Kherson regions into the Russian Federation, the Kremlin seeks to repeat history with the "Crimean consensus".

• Moscow also wants to demonstrate to Ukraine and the West that Russia is ready to fight the war to a victorious end, regardless of any sacrifices.

• Ukraine accepts the challenge.

  Kyiv has applied for NATO membership.

• Belarus is getting more and more involved in this vortex, it is forced to fit in more actively in support of Russia.

• Lukashenka's frequent meetings with the security forces play the role of a certain psychotherapy, in order to give oneself confidence in their loyalty.

On October 4, the Federation Council, following the State Duma of the Russian Federation, ratified the agreements on the admission of the "LPR", "DPR", Zaporizhia and Kherson regions into the Russian Federation.

After Vladimir Putin signs them, Russia will consider these territories as its own.

The tragicomedy is that the borders of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions are not defined in the documents.

What did the senators vote for then?

Such forcing of the process of joining Russia of four Ukrainian regions should solve several problems for the Kremlin.

First of all, the Russian authorities are trying to neutralize the anger in society due to the announced mobilization.

That is, Putin is showing the Russians that the war is not pointless, that there is already a result, Russia has acquired new territories, the sacrifices are not in vain.

Therefore, let the war be not small, but big, but victorious.

By the way, contrary to experts' predictions, the mobilization did not cause mass rejection of the war in Russian society.

According to sociological polls of the Levada Center, support for the "special operation" decreased by only 6 percentage points.

And until the people come to their senses, it is necessary to give them gingerbread in the form of captured territories.

Second, the Kremlin seeks to repeat history with the "Crimean consensus."

Let me remind you that in 2014, Russian society enthusiastically accepted the annexation of Crimea.

Then the support of the Kremlin amounted to 86%.

Now Putin wants to repeat all this.

It is expected that the Russian population will accept the annexation of new Ukrainian territories to Russia with the same enthusiasm and forgive Putin for the death of Russian soldiers at the front, and the drop in the standard of living in the Russian Federation due to Western sanctions, and international isolation.

Thirdly, now that four Ukrainian regions are declared part of Russia, any attempt by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to enter this territory will be declared an attack on Russian lands.

And then Ukraine can be called the aggressor, and Russia - the victim of aggression.

There will be a reason to declare war on Ukraine, to carry out not partial, but full mobilization, to raise a wave of patriotism in the Russian Federation: they say, look, we were attacked, we need to defend the Motherland.

And the use of nuclear weapons can be justified if Ukraine begins to conquer the territory that the Russian Federation will consider its own.

Fourthly, the Kremlin went all-in, dramatically raising the stakes in the big geopolitical game.

Moscow seeks to put the world in front of the fact, to demonstrate to Ukraine and the West that Russia is ready to lead the war to a victorious end, regardless of any sacrifices.

But the decision to join four Ukrainian regions, and especially the way it was done (they didn't even begin to imitate the expression of the people's will), made an unfavorable impression on the foreign audience.

After all, the initial explanation of the need for war, offered by the Kremlin, was a little different.

Putin talked about the "denazification" of Ukraine, the fight against the treacherous West, the need to create a multipolar world, and other lofty motives.

And now everything has come down to a banal seizure of the territories of the neighboring state.

As in medieval wars.

This decision will only expand Russia's international isolation, increase the vigilance of all neighbors, and become a strong obstacle for integration processes in the post-Soviet space.

After all, according to such a scheme, with the help of such "referendums", any territory of another country can be annexed.

The Kremlin's course to raise the stakes in this war caused a corresponding reaction in Ukraine.

Since the Ukrainian society does not recognize Russia's decision to annex the territory of Ukraine, Ukraine accepts the challenge.

Kyiv has applied for NATO membership.

President Vladimir Zelensky signed a decree on the impossibility of "negotiations with the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin."

That is, the way to a compromise is cut off from both sides.

Now negotiations are impossible.

The probability that the war will lead to the victory of one of the parties increases sharply.

And Belarus is drawn into this vortex, which is forced to fit in more and more in support of Russia.

It can be assumed that during the recent meeting in Sochi, Putin demanded from Lukashenka a more active and consistent fulfillment by Belarus of its duty as an ally, resolutely supporting the Russian Federation in its conflict with Ukraine and the West.

It is no coincidence that right after that Lukashenka had to go to Abkhazia.

There is more and more information about the possible appearance of new Russian military formations on the territory of Belarus.

On October 4, Lukashenka held a meeting with security forces at the Ministry of Defense.

Actually, he did not say anything particularly new.

He once again called on the generals to be vigilant.

He admitted the involvement of Belarus in the war in Ukraine: "As for our participation in the special military operation in Ukraine, we participate there.

We don't hide it."

If earlier Lukashenka mentioned at the same time that we are for peace, now that was not the case either.

A lot of attention was paid to the issue of fighting "fugitives".

Apparently, this worries him even more than the war with NATO.

But it seems that these frequent meetings with the security forces with the repetition of the same appeals and incantations play the role of a kind of psychotherapy.

Apparently, Lukashenka has no conviction in the dedication and loyalty of the leadership of the security forces at a critical moment.

Therefore, these permanent meetings should increase his confidence.

These generals are sitting here, carefully writing down everything that Lukashenka tells them.

And the impression is created that they will not betray.

It seems that there is no other meaning in these meetings.

The opinions expressed in the blogs represent the views of the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect the position of the editors.

• Valer Karbalevich

  He was born in 1955.

  Graduated from the history faculty of BSU, candidate of historical sciences, associate professor.

  Radio Svaboda political commentator.

  
  
  

  karbalevich@gmail.com

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