The latest polls show that Shen Huihong, a candidate for the mayor of Hsinchu from the Democratic Progressive Party, leads with 30.4%, Gao Hongan, a candidate for the People's Party, ranks second with 27.3%, and Lin Gengren of the Kuomintang ranks third with 17.9%.

(Provided by China Asia-Pacific Elite Exchange Association)

[Reporter Chen Yufu/Taipei Report] There are less than 2 months left in the nine-in-one election battle. The China Asia-Pacific Elite Exchange Association announced the latest poll today. Shen Huihong, a candidate for the mayor of Hsinchu from the Democratic Progressive Party, led by 30.4%, and the People's Party ran for the election. Gao Hongan ranked second with 27.3%, and Kuomintang candidate Lin Gengren ranked third with 17.9%.

According to the poll, among the voters who "will definitely vote", Shen Huihong slightly leads Gao Hongan with 30.4% with 33.5%, and Lin Gengren is at the bottom with 19.2%.

Among the voters who "may go to vote", Shen Huihong 35.4% and Gao Hongan 22.9%, Shen Huihong's lead has widened.

In terms of optimism, Gao Hongan leads Shen Huihong with 35.8% and 24.5%.

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Cross analysis shows that the support of 20-29-year-olds is 30.8% for Shen Huihong, 37.7% for Gao Hongan, and 10.7% for Lin Gengren; the support for 30-39 years old is 38.9% for Shen Huihong, 29.4% for Gao Hongan, and 14.2% for Lin Gengren; 40-49 years old support Degree, Shen Huihong 28.2%, Gao Hongan 34.6%, Lin Gengren 16.7%; 50 to 59 years old support, Shen Huihong 24.5%, Gao Hongan 28%, Lin Gengren 21.4%; 60 to 69 years old support, Shen Huihong 30.5%, Gao Hongan 16.9%, Lin Gengren 27.4%.

Fan Shiping, a professor at the Institute of Political Studies at National Taiwan Normal University, said that in terms of support, Shen Huihong jumped to the lead, the Kuomintang supporters were divided, and the DPP supporters still supported Shen Huihong.

Among those who will definitely go to vote, Shen Huihong is slightly ahead of Gao Hongan. As for the number of people who are optimistic about Gao Hongan, it is mainly due to the media effect. The Kuomintang will form a split voting model this time.

Zhang Yushao, a researcher at the Cross-Strait Policy Association, pointed out that the China Asia-Pacific Elite Exchange Association is going to release a poll today. There was a news report at 6:00 in the morning. Gao Hongan announced that a pro-green unit would do a fake poll. Respect, why did you say it was a fake poll before you saw the poll?

Zhang Yushao criticized Gao Hongan, claiming to be a big data expert. He held a press conference last week to say that he was attacked by the Internet, and also announced the ranking list of Facebook fans. As a result, the Internet celebrity "Four Forks Cat" did a cross-analysis and found that the results were not praised, Those who questioned Gao Hongan were listed as a negative attack by her. This is the cheap dichotomy. If you haven't seen the polls, you will directly say that the polls are fake. This reflects Gao Hongan's political character, and now it is Ke Wenzhe's upper body.

Chen Lifu, vice president of the Taiwan Association of Professors, analyzed that Gao Hongan was in the lead in the polls of other units in the past few weeks, but after the plagiarism incident broke out, Gao Hongan has fallen behind. Today's poll is very meaningful and can reflect the votes of all parties. Intention, at present, the support of Shen and Gao is already within the margin of error.

Issues such as essays, resource policy meetings, and interviews with the president began to affect the impression of middle voters on Gao Hongan.

Is there a "pig brother ticket" advantage for Gao Hongan?

Chen Lifu pointed out that from the polls, young votes are optimistic about Gao Hongan, but they do not really support her, so the young "pig brother vote" does not actually exist.

From the cross analysis, if it is a supporter of the People's Party, between the ages of 40 and 60, this "pig brother vote" exists.

Because women in their 30s, young, and technological backgrounds have some longing for this group of middle-aged people, and it is rare.

However, for people in their 20s and 30s, it is not uncommon for women to be engaged in the technology industry, and they will not strongly project that Gao Hongan is the "flower of the technology world", while people over 60 are less engaged in the technology industry, and they will not be interested in Gao Hong'an. Gao Hongan had an imagination.

Chen Lifu believes that the support of Lin Gengren of Blue Camp has not risen, Gao Hongan's momentum is declining, and KMT supporters may not come out to vote. For the People's Party, Hsinchu City used to be governed by the Kuomintang for a long time. Although Lin Zhijian of the DPP served as mayor for 2 terms, Lin was re-elected because of his political achievements. The Kuomintang will not give up the basics and support Gao Hongan.

Zeng Guanqiu, a professor at the Department of Public Consular Affairs of National Taiwan Normal University, analyzed that Shen Huihong's supporters are mostly over 60 years old. This group has a higher proportion of voting. Young people support Gao Hongan, but they may not vote.

Shen Huihong's advantage lies in the continuity of governance. She wants to get rid of the unfavorable influence of the age group by putting forward more beef, and what advantages the ruling party can bring to the government, such as Hsinchu transportation and construction, etc., can get rid of the age group problem. It is not the looks of the candidates, but the administrative experience and the continuity of governance. If there is a break in the governance, it will have an adverse impact on the construction of Hsinchu City.

Wu Se, a researcher at the Cross-Strait Policy Association, questioned that Gao Hongan's comments on the poll were very disappointing from a scholar's point of view.

Gao Hongan believes that the polls are not credible. This trick Han Guoyu has also used in 2020 is a candidate's "attitude" issue.

This poll was conducted from September 28 to 29, 2022, and successfully interviewed 1,018 people over the age of 20 who have the right to vote in Hsinchu City. Taking Hsinchu City's residential phone number as the matrix, at the 95% confidence level, the sampling error is plus or minus 3.07%.

The survey data has been weighted for the gender, age and region of the respondents after the sample representativeness test.

In response to Gao Hongan's disdain for Chung Hwa University's speech, 47.7% thought it was inappropriate, and 18.2% thought it was appropriate.

(Provided by China Asia-Pacific Elite Exchange Association)