Briefly

  • In his opening speech at the negotiations in Sochi, Lukashenka did not speak about Belarus' participation in the war, nor about the recognition of the results of the quasi-referendums on the annexation of the occupied regions of Ukraine to the Russian Federation.

  • Makei said the other day that Belarus will decide the issue of this recognition based on "national interests".

  • Lukashenko announced last week that there will be no mobilization in Belarus.

  • Russia's partners and allies have declared that they do not recognize the results of the quasi-referendums.

    Self-proclaimed South Ossetia, a satellite of the Russian Federation, supported the "referendums".

  • After mobilization, Russia may not really need Belarusian soldiers at the front.

    Reducing the status of Belarus to the status of South Ossetia will not necessarily be in the interests of the Kremlin.

  • According to the results of the negotiations in Sochi, the Belarusian side did not make any statements either about direct participation in the war or about recognizing the results of the quasi-referendums.

Today in Sochi, Russia, Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin held talks - their seventh meeting since the beginning of the year and the first after the announcement of mobilization in Russia.

The negotiations were held a day before the end of the quasi-referendums on the accession of four regions of Ukraine to the Russian Federation.

The main questions are whether Belarus will enter the war with its troops, whether it will mobilize itself, whether it will recognize the annexation of four regions of Ukraine to Russia.

But at the beginning of the negotiations in Sochi, Lukashenka talked about something completely different: that not so many people fled from Russia due to mobilization;

recalled that a certain number of people left Belarus after the 2020 protests, and no harm happened.

Like, the fact that both Belarus and Russia are getting rid of such individuals is even for the best.

In a word, he spoke as the co-ruler of Russia, talking about the consequences of the new mobilization political reality for the Russian Federation.

And what about Belarus?

In the context it was said - "we are intimidated by mobilization."

So what?

Will she be?

At least at the beginning of the negotiations, Lukashenka did not say anything about it.

Before that, at the end of last week, he said that there would be no mobilization in Belarus.

However, he did not deny his statement in Sochi either.

Last week, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, Vladimir Makei, said in an interview with French television that Minsk's recognition of referendums in 4 regions of Ukraine depends on "national interests".

He did not say that they would recognize it, he did not say that they would not recognize it.

And Lukashenko in Sochi did not touch on this topic at all in his introductory speech.

It is interesting to compare the reaction of the Belarusian authorities with the reaction of other states - recognized and unrecognized.

Western countries declared that they would not recognize the results of quasi-referendums as soon as this initiative was announced.

Serbia, Russia's partner, said today that it "cannot accept the results of the referendum in the Ukrainian regions."

Russia's ally Kazakhstan also stated today: "As for holding referendums on joining Russia by the self-proclaimed states of the LPR and DPR and the military administrations of the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, Kazakhstan is based on the principles of territorial integrity of states, their sovereign equality and peaceful coexistence."

It is not directly said that it does not recognize, but the wording about "self-proclaimed states" and "military administrations", and not at all about the will of the inhabitants of these regions, indicates that it is about non-recognition.

Finally, today's reaction of the satellite of Russia, the self-proclaimed South Ossetia.

Its president Alan Gagloev said: "The leadership and people of the Republic of South Ossetia fully support the holding of referendums on September 23-27, 2022, on the question of joining the Russian Federation in the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions."

Clearly and unambiguously.

The same as in Serbia, only with the opposite content.

And the Belarusian official position is between the position of Kazakhstan and the self-proclaimed South Ossetia.

We will see, we will follow, we will make a decision based on "national interests".

But it is important that the reaction of Lukashenka and the Belarusian authorities is not the same as that of the undisputed satellite of Russia, which, moreover, does not have wide international recognition.

Even after the negotiations with Putin, Lukashenka did not make any statements today, similar to today's statements of Gagloev.

It may happen that he will do tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, what he will do after the official announcement in Russia about the annexation of four regions of Ukraine.

It cannot be ruled out.

But it is also impossible to state categorically.

By the way, Lukashenka never visited Crimea after the declaration of its recognition as Russian.

Moscow also knows that its other partners and allies - internationally recognized states - are not going to recognize the results of quasi-referendums.

It is not obvious that it is in the interests of Moscow to reduce the status of Belarus to the status of South Ossetia.

It is the same with the mobilization in Belarus.

The motive for mobilization in Russia was the lack of manpower in the Russian army on the battlefield.

The involvement of the Belarusian army in the war made military sense in a situation where there was a shortage of "cannon fodder".

But even then Lukashenka was not forced to send Belarusians to fight.

Now there is no military sense in this.

One way or another, mobilization will give Russia a lot of soldiers.

The political meaning of involving Belarus in the war is directly for the Kremlin.

But he was there before.

However, in the last 7 months, he has not become so vigilant as to really involve her.

Because from the point of view of Moscow, there are risks in this.

Not that they were sure that in case of closer involvement of Belarus in the war, the country will rise, and the Belarusian army will turn its weapons against Lukashenka and Putin.

But they are not sure that this will not happen.

And then we will have to carry out not a metaphorical, but a real occupation of Belarus.

And for this you need troops, it entails additional international costs.

In a word, it is not a fact that for Moscow the pros outweigh the cons.

If Lukashenka announced today in Sochi: we recognize the results of the referendums in 4 regions of Ukraine, the Belarusian army enters the battle, joins the Russian "brothers in arms" in a "special military operation", Belarus conducts mobilization - then my analysis would be completely inappropriate and wrong.

But he didn't say that.

So, uncertainty remains, Belarus has not yet turned into South Ossetia.

Tomorrow, maybe, it will change.

But today - not.

The opinions expressed in the blogs represent the views of the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect the position of the editors.