At least, it will not be a sign of softening, liberalization of the regime.

Neither the mass release of political prisoners nor the release of iconic figures from prison should be expected.

Lukashenka is not one of those who forgives and shows mercy: he is one of those who punishes and takes revenge.

From time to time, Lukashenka utters the right words about national unity, reconciliation, the need to

"turn the page"

(something that advisers and consultants are obviously advising to say, but one's own intuition cannot help but suggest - with such political experience).

But in the end, his inner essence still prevails, a nature in which there is so much vindictiveness, hatred and malice.

SEE ALSO: Run away and never return.

Why Lukashenka is troubled by the topic of "fugitives"

"Conscious" are enemies

During the first three weeks of September, Lukashenka repeatedly spoke about a quick amnesty for "political" people.

And each time these statements were extremely contradictory.

  • Then he says:

    "If these people repented, started on the path of correction, fully atoned for their guilt, they can be shown mercy."

  • That warns the "security forces":

    "We cannot let go of everyone left and right.

    Whoever should be in prison should be."

  • He promises:

    "There are people whom we can freely release early... Sometimes our supporters indulge in excesses: they wet everyone, imprison them, and so on.

    You know, unity in society has never been added to it."

  • And a few days later, on September 20, during a meeting with the State Secretary of the Security Council, Alyaksandr Valfovich, he already listed everyone as enemies:

    "And these "conscious" are enemies... They will constantly twist and torment us and throw these questions at us.

    And then, at the right moment, they will go again to thunder, bomb, make fun of people."

And if all "conscious" are enemies, then how to release them?

In order to "twirle and stir" and prepare to "thunder, bomb and mock"?

SEE ALSO: Philosopher Matskevich from behind bars: "Where Lukashenka is, there is conflict, crisis and repression"

It is terrible to release the innocent

Over the past 28 years of Lukashenka's presidency, thousands of his political opponents have gone through prisons.

There were well-known, little-known, and completely unknown persons among them.

There were amnesties and pardons.

But this happened mainly when the West "pressed", when it was a subject of trade - and for every "head" of an oppositionist, you could get something material in return: the lifting of sanctions, the possibility of contacts with the civilized world, loans.

Every time it was "forgiveness through the teeth".

Andrei Sannikov, a political prisoner, was released from prison on May 15, 2012

Even if Lukashenka released some of his political opponents early, it was not because he felt sorry for them, because he forgave them, because he was guided by the motives of mercy, humanism and compassion.

SEE ALSO: "Well, sign it, you don't want to go home?".

A former political prisoner tells how he was asked to write a request for pardon

Well, it is impossible to imagine him as merciful and indulgent, magnanimous, unforgiving and unforgiving.

Over three decades, Belarusians had the opportunity to see this many times.

Let's at least mention the fate of his closest associates who led him to power, to whom he owes his career rise, with whom he went and traveled to the cities and villages of Belarus to pre-election meetings in 1994.

They sat at the same table in his hotel room at the "Kastrychnitskaya" hotel, laughed together over jokes, had fun together and drank vodka until morning on those memorable evenings and nights in July 1994, when everything was decided.

They hugged, congratulated each other (and especially him).

They were considered almost friends!

SEE ALSO: Who, how and why?

20 years ago, ex-Minister of Internal Affairs Zakharanka was kidnapped

And then... Then the executioner's hand did not flinch as he raised the shooting gun aimed at Viktar Hanchar and Yury Zakharanka.

And no sentiments prevented the sick literary critic Alexander Fyadut from being sent to a camp for 10 years.

And there is no doubt that the same fate would have befallen Valery Tsapkala, if he, knowing well the disposition of his former "friend", had not managed to escape abroad.

SEE ALSO: The real conspirators are in power.

What do the sentences of Fyadut-Kastusev-Ziankovich testify about

All of Lukashenka's latest contradictory statements about amnesty indicate one thing: after taking a step forward, he immediately takes two steps back, looking around and as if asking if he looks too generous and humane.

He is afraid to release the innocent.

After all, behind their figures are the shadows of August 2020.

In general, looking back at his political biography, it is difficult to remember any broad and noble gestures.

If he extended his hand to an opponent defeated in a fair fight.

Did he recognize the merits and talent of world-famous persons (even political opponents): as was the case with Vasyl Bykov and Svetlana Aleksievich.

Or would just sincerely sympathize with someone else's grief.

How often in 30 years has he been seen at the funerals of famous people (even his closest associates)?

SEE ALSO: Lukashenko may become the first victim of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukrainian political scientist Magda

Hitler's humanism and Stalin's compassion

Hitler and Stalin also held some kind of amnesties from time to time and mercifully pardoned some of their victims.

For example, in 1935,


pardoned the convicted SS members of the Hanstein concentration camp - the notorious camp sadists who were responsible for the torture and death of many prisoners.

And once he even saved the life of a Jew - a doctor from Linz,

Eduard Bloch

, who treated Hitler's mother when she was dying of breast cancer.

When Germany annexed Austria in 1938, Hitler personally protected Bloch from arrest.

And later he was even allowed to emigrate to the USA.

True, all these years the ovens of Auschwitz and Majdanek, in which millions of innocent compatriots of Eduard Bloch were burned, were continuously smoking.

Adolf Hitler in 1938

And Stalin in 1938–1939.

gave permission for the mass release of those "counter-revolutionaries" who did not have time to shoot in 1937.

From 100 to 150 thousand innocent "enemies of the people" were released.

"It was Yezhov who destroyed many innocent people.

We shot him for that," Comrade Stalin regretfully lamented in 1941.

At the same time, the Gulag he created continued to grind millions of innocent victims in its belly for almost a decade and a half.

Nikolai Yazhov and Joseph Stalin, 1937

SEE ALSO: In the Horaden region, the cemetery of the soldiers of the Regional Army was destroyed again.

This is already the seventh case

After Lukashenka

It is unlikely that Belarus after Lukashenka will be any different than in the USSR after Stalin.

I mean not the first amnesty after the death of the tyrant, not the "cold summer of 1953".

(Then, according to Beria's hasty and chaotic decisions, mostly criminals, hundreds of thousands of people, were released. It is true that there were also political prisoners among those released, but only those sentenced to a term of less than 5 years. Such were the minority: the "anti-Soviets" were usually measured by much heavier terms, as they do now in Belarus regarding "protesters".)

SEE ALSO: Year of revenge and revenge.

Repression: merciless and senseless

The mass release and rehabilitation of the prisoners of Stalin's Gulag took place later, already as a meaningful and purposeful action, as part of the "debunking and overcoming the consequences of the cult of personality" announced by Khrushchev.

Nikita Khrushchev and US President John Kennedy, 1961

Khrushchev's rehabilitation did not take place through amnesty, but on an individual basis.

Nikita Sergeevich was well aware of the mechanism of Stalin's political repressions (because he himself took an active part in them), so he ordered the re-establishment of "troikas" made up of party functionaries, prosecutors and police chiefs, who quickly made decisions without cumbersome legal procedures.

These commissions "for verification of cases and rehabilitation" have been operating since 1953.

SEE ALSO: Between Gulag and Akrestin.

Why was it better in the Brezhnev USSR than in today's Belarus

They worked properly: during the years of Khrushchev's rule, according to historians' estimates, the number of acquitted and rehabilitated people ranges from 800,000 to two million people.

At the same time, what is remarkable, the conversation was not about the complete restoration of the rights of former political prisoners: often the punishment was not canceled at all, but only softened.

This allowed people to be set free, but at the same time there was no talk of compensation for the innocent convicted, nor of the responsibility of those who carried out political repression.

Such inferior rehabilitation was explained very simply: thousands of party functionaries, prosecutors, investigators, and policemen stained with Stalin's crimes remained in the "clamp".

If they really started to investigate and punish those guilty of crimes, they themselves would have to be thrown into prison.

SEE ALSO: Jealousy and revenge of a polenophobe.

Why does Lukashenko dislike Poland and Poles so much

Every Stalin has his own Khrushchev

Something similar can most likely happen immediately after Lukashenka.

The scale of political repressions taking place in Belarus is quite comparable to Stalin's.

Is there a prosecutor, policeman, investigator, "vertical worker" in the country today who is not involved in the political persecution of dissidents in one way or another?

SEE ALSO: "Gorbachev left without blood, Lukashenka would not have been able to do that," - Tsikhanovskaya's advisor Alexander Dobravolsky recalls the last head of the USSR

The new Belarusian Khrushchev who will come after Lukashenka will most likely be from his current entourage: this happened most often in the former USSR.

And it is very likely that he, like Khrushchev in the USSR, will renounce Lukashenka's dictatorial legacy and make a name for himself by rejecting totalitarianism.

And he will begin to release, amnesty, rehabilitate thousands of political prisoners - victims of Lukashenka's regime.

But, as under Khrushchev, that first post-Lukashenka amnesty is unlikely to be complete and consistent.

Most likely, the same people who were imprisoned on false charges will be released and rehabilitated.

Others will simply have nowhere to start at first.

They planted themselves - they will produce them themselves.

... Autocratic rulers of Russia in the 19th century, it happened, more than once magnanimously forgave their enemies.

And what an enemy!

The officers who, with weapons in their hands, brought their regiments to the Senate Square, who really prepared to destroy the emperor for the sake of the high ideals of the freedom of the Motherland and the liberation of fellow citizens.

The first amnesty in the Russian Empire was held by Alexander II in 1856: he freed the Decembrists, Petroshevites and participants in the Polish uprising of 1831.

That amnesty became a landmark event that started the first Russian "thaw".

Alexander Lukashenko gets on the plane at the Balbasava airfield for the flight to the SCO summit, September 15, 2022

Lukashenka punishes with long prison terms, as if terrorists and dangerous state criminals, those who took off their shoes during the peaceful marches of 2020, stepping on the bench to wave a flag or a ball;

who painted white and red hearts on the windows or hung laundry "according to the BCHB scheme".

Another king - other enemies.

A false king is a false amnesty.

SEE ALSO: Lukashenka no longer says that Belarus is not participating in the war, and is silent about amnesty.

This is alarming, - Rudkovsky

The opinions expressed in the blogs represent the views of the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect the position of the editors.