- I have a feeling that just as Putin believed that he would defeat Ukraine in three days, today the Russian leadership believes that it will not break through anywhere, it is going its own way, but in the same direction as the rest of the world.

That's why I wouldn't say that there is a situation of conscious reverse movement here: in fact, it is happening, but the management, in my opinion, is not aware of it at all.

They believe that they can create an independent Internet, that they have the technological opening for some huge breakthroughs.

Here, it is rather a huge self-deception, self-suggestion, than a conscious policy of modernization.

Russia miscalculated here in the same way as with the war in Ukraine.

She completely underestimated Europe's ability to survive, she was so convinced for many years that the West is hopelessly dependent on its energy sources that the possibility of Europe's existence without Russian supplies is not considered in principle.

And this also had an effect on Putin: he considers himself and Russia too powerful, influential, the world's necessary economy.

This is also the moment that leads to the wrong decisions we see.

Undoubtedly, the blow to Russia will be very strong.

Now Russian oil in large volumes is purchased in the same Europe on the eve of the embargo;

I think the situation will worsen after the New Year.

In March, when the war began, I published an article in Novaya Gazeta entitled "The Russian economy will die before winter."

My prediction, unlike many at the time, was that we would more or less survive for about a year, but after that the situation would be very difficult.

- That is, the moment of truth will probably come sometime in the spring of 2023?

- It will be precisely in January-February, when the embargo will come into force, when Europe will, of course, survive the winter without gas, and all kinds of terror that Putin arranges in the hope that a certain Scholz will open the "Nordic Stream - 2" to him... When all these illusions end and it becomes clear that the budget is far and away in the red zone, then the first attempts to cut costs, cut all kinds of government liabilities, and reduce investments will begin to appear.