Reuters quoted a senior Taiwanese security official as assessing that China may launch military intimidation before Taiwan enters the 2024 presidential election.

The picture shows the Chinese People's Liberation Army exercises near Pingtan, Fujian on August 4.

(AFP)

[Compiled by Yang Fuyi/Taipei Report] "Reuters" quoted an unnamed senior Taiwanese security official today (23) as saying that if China blocks Taiwan or seizes outlying islands, it will be regarded as an act of war, and Taiwan will not surrender. However, as Taiwan enters the 2024 presidential election cycle, Taipei does not rule out the possibility of Beijing launching large-scale military exercises close to Taiwan next year.

"This is our biggest concern right now," the official said, adding that other possible Chinese actions could include adding "gray zone" tactics, harassment by warships near Taiwan, or cyber attacks.

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Still, warships from countries other than the U.S. sail through the Taiwan Strait about once a month, officials said, in response to Beijing showing that once China launches an attack on Taiwan, such an act of war will not be without an international response.

The official said that "the establishment of deterrence is very important for China, and not only the United States, but also European countries and Japan should join this deterrent force".

U.S. President Biden said in an exclusive interview with the CBS program "Sixty Minutes" on the 18th that if China invades Taiwan and an unprecedented attack occurs, the U.S. military will defend Taiwan.

This is Biden's clearest statement on the issue since he took office last year.

The top Taiwanese security official said that the world's most advanced semiconductors are produced in Taiwan, and ensuring the stability of the Taiwan Strait is a shared interest for the world. "The pressure on the Taiwan Strait is the pressure on the supply of chips."

After the U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in early August, China deliberately raised tensions across the Taiwan Strait and launched a series of provocative military exercises in the waters and airspace around Taiwan, including test-firing missiles in adjacent waters adjacent to Taiwan's territorial waters, resulting in a similar partial blockade rehearsal phenomenon.

This has made Taiwan and the governments of friendly countries such as the United States and Japan focus their attention on how a conflict with China might emerge.

How should Taiwan and allies respond?

The Taiwanese official said that China's series of military exercises after Pelosi's visit showed how the worst could happen, while thinking focused on how Taiwan would reflect, "Blockade is an act of war; seizing an outlying island is a an act of war," and Taipei believes Beijing is unlikely to take any of these actions at this time.

"The sole purpose of their seizure (outlying islands) is to force us to negotiate or surrender. But we will not surrender or negotiate," the official said. "These are military operations, and there is no room for ambiguity."

Many military strategists have said that Chinese military operations may not directly attack Taiwan in a full frontal attack. Actions may include, for example, imposing a blockade or possibly attempting to seize one of Taiwan's outlying islands, such as Kinmen or the Matsu Islands, to force Taiwan to accept Chinese rule.