Russian military expert Yuri Fedorov

answers these questions of

on the Svaboda Premium channel .

Briefly

• We will find out from Putin's speech whether the plans for referendums are real.

• If the respective territories are declared parts of the Russian Federation, attacks on them will be considered as an attack on Russia.

• This is the way to transition from a "special military operation" to a war with Ukraine and the announcement of mobilization.

• 100,000 to 200,000 people can be drafted into the army.

• If this does not stop the offensive of the Ukrainian army, the Kremlin may consider the possibility of using nuclear weapons.

- On September 20, the pro-Russian occupation administrations in the east of Ukraine and in the Russian-controlled Kherson region announced the dates of referendums on joining Russia.

They were scheduled for September 23-27.

Are these real plans or a means of pressure on the West or Ukraine?

Yuri Fedorov

- There is no clear answer to this question yet.

We will get it when

or his press secretary

So far, only the deputy secretary of the Security Council,

But his tirades often do not correspond to the president's line.

Medvedev is one of the leaders of the "war party".

She has many supporters in the Russian leadership, but they are not the ones who make the decisions.

— Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin has already spoken.

In addition, it is clear that the idea of ​​referendums did not come to the heads of the leaders of the "LDNR" and the occupation administrations.

This idea came from Moscow.

- In my opinion, the decision has already been made.

Preparation for it is almost complete.

The military situation of Russia in the Luhansk and Kherson regions of Ukraine is becoming more difficult.

It is possible that the Russian military expects a serious defeat in the south and east.

The Russian army suffered a terrible defeat in the Kharkiv region.

Two more defeats would mean defeat in the war.

The situation is escalating, bringing it to the limit.

And the goal is to get Ukraine, and first of all, from the West, to agree to the Russian version of the ceasefire and to the actual surrender of Ukraine from this new level.

The scheme, which I believe is being discussed and probably already accepted in the Kremlin, is as follows.

Referendums - if it is possible to call it a referendum, of course, because what will happen in the occupied territories of Ukraine has nothing to do with a referendum as a legally justified procedure that has legal significance.

But it doesn't matter.

After that, the occupied territories will be declared part of the Russian Federation, it will be said that an attack on the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation is the reason for the transition from a "special military operation" to a declaration of war on Ukraine.

The declaration of war provides a legal basis for mobilization - perhaps not complete, partial, but nevertheless.

Such mobilization will be carried out.

Probably, it is supposed to draft into the army at least several tens of thousands, and maybe 100-200 thousand reserve soldiers and officers.

And with their help, we will solve the very problem that worries the Russian military and the Kremlin - to try to stop the offensive of Ukraine.

If this fails, if this offensive continues, then I do not rule out that the Kremlin is considering the issue of the possible use of nuclear weapons.

- Medvedev hinted at the use of nuclear weapons in his Telegram post.

"An attack on the territory of Russia is a crime, the commission of which allows the use of all self-defense forces," he wrote.

- Medvedev is not right.

The Russian nuclear doctrine states: "The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use against it and/or its allies of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, if the very existence of the state is threatened."

Ukraine has no weapons of mass destruction.

Neither the USA, nor France, nor Great Britain are going to use nuclear weapons against the Russian Federation, at least not first.

If there is talk about the offensive of the Ukrainian army on certain areas of the Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhansk and Donetsk regions, even the de-occupation of these regions does not endanger the existence of Russia as a state.

- And who decides what to put and what not to put at risk the existence of Russia?

- The use of nuclear weapons requires the decision of the president, the commander-in-chief.

The direct order for the use of these weapons is given by the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff.

War will be declared, mobilization will take place.

If the goals set before the army are not fulfilled, it is possible to move to the next stage - nuclear.

- How significant is the peculiar burning of bridges in this decision?

When Russia was kicked out of Kharkiv region, it left the occupied territory.

If the referendums are held and the relevant territories are annexed to the Russian Federation, then leaving them, retreating from there, returning these territories is, from the point of view of domestic Russian legislation, giving the territory to Russia.

- This motive is important.

In Moscow, there is now a debate between the conventional "party of war" and "party of peace".

The President of Ukraine,

, made it clear that there will be no negotiations with Russia until it releases all Ukrainian territories within 1991.

"Burning bridges" aims to prevent potentially possible negotiations.

The purpose of announcing the occupied territories by Russia is to prevent negotiations in the long term.

- If war is declared after such fast-moving referendums, will it not cause an explosion of indignation in Russian society?

Throughout the months of this war, experts said that Putin did not announce mobilization because he was afraid of the public reaction of indignation.

And now she won't be?

To announce a referendum, in three days, "on the knees", to hold it under the fire of Ukrainian troops and to quickly annex the relevant territories to the Russian Federation - will the Russians psychologically consider them Russian?

- Mobilization can cause an explosion of discontent.

But not because of the legal error of the planned "referendums".

This is not what worries the Russian "deep people", the Russian citizen.

It worries me that my son, father, and husband can be conscripted into the army at any moment and sent to war in Ukraine.

And evading military duty means a serious prison term.

This prospect will not please not only those who will be sent to fight, but also their relatives.

To be sent to war for an unknown reason - this prospect can cause dissatisfaction among the broad circles of the population, which until recently had a neutral attitude towards the war and even welcomed it.

But it's one thing to cheer while sitting in front of the TV, and another to fight in the fields of Ukraine.

Until now, people went to this war voluntarily, expecting to earn a lot of money.

- Perhaps the Kremlin is counting on a surge of patriotic feelings: they say that enemies have attacked Russia - it is our duty to protect the fatherland, the Russian land.

- In my opinion, it will not work very well.

This kind of demagoguery will affect the Russian citizen last.