Kupchan: Serbia will recognize Kosovo in exchange for EU membership

Charles Kupchan, from the American Council on Foreign Relations, expresses his belief that Serbia will, in the end, recognize the independence and sovereignty of Kosovo, in exchange for membership in the European Union. But it remains to be seen how and when this goal will be realized. Considering the mood of the Serbian public, which is against the entry of...

But it remains to be seen how and when this goal will be realized.

Taking into account the mood of the Serbian public, which is against Serbia's entry into the EU, if the condition for this is the recognition of Kosovo, the question arises as to whether Serbia can renounce European integration?

"I think there is little chance for this", says Kupchan in an interview for Radio Evropa e Lire.

According to him, the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, was "capable of balancing and sitting on two chairs".

How do you comment on the letter of the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, sent to the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia, which emphasizes that the full normalization of relations between Pristina and Belgrade is essential for the Western Balkans?

Charles Kupchan:

Macron and Scholz's letter comes at the right time and carries the right message.

Rising tensions between Serbia and Kosovo – and across the region in general – require greater engagement, both European and transatlantic.

Both Macron and Scholz are right when they say that what is needed is the complete normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia.

It is time for Belgrade and Prishtina to make difficult decisions and reach the necessary compromises for this purpose.

From September 1, Kosovo and Serbia have started to implement the agreement for free movement, without entry/exit papers.

How do you comment on the fact that Pristina and Belgrade, after several months and years of tension, have at least agreed on something?

Charles Kupchan:

Kosovo insists on full sovereignty.

Whether personal documents or license plates are in question, it is understandable that Kosovo wants to function as a normal country.

It is positive to reach an agreement on personal documents, at least.

We will see if there is an agreement on license plates in the next couple of months.

But there is some progress, at least in the narrowest sense of the word.

In a broader sense, we are witnessing the resurgence of tensions between different groups throughout the region - which affects the situation in Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, then the relations between Serbia and Kosovo, Bulgaria and North Macedonia... So the tensions in the region are increasing, instead of decreasing.

There are several reasons for this.

One is the pandemic, which has led to economic decline.

There is also the war in Ukraine, which has caused political polarization at the global level, including the Balkans, forcing Serbia and the Bosnian Serbs to make some difficult decisions.

Therefore, Moscow is possibly intensifying its activities to manipulate the situation in that region.

Also, the Balkans now feel somewhat neglected by the US and the EU, because they pay a lot of attention to world events, after the 9/11 attacks – first in the Middle East, and now in Ukraine.

So, for many reasons, we are witnessing an increase in tensions in the Western Balkans, and Kosovo is only one part.

Kosovo and most Western countries insist that the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade ends with a comprehensive agreement, with mutual recognition... Serbia rejects this and demands that Pristina fulfill the provision of the Brussels Agreement for the formation of the Association of Serb-majority municipalities in Kosovo .

The Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, does not accept.

Is there a risk of increased tensions and even armed conflicts?

Charles Kupchan:

There is a model for overcoming the impasse in relations between Kosovo and Serbia, but not much progress has been made in its implementation.

There are some developments, like this one with personal documents, then for economic issues during the administration [of former American president, Donald] Trump, but the economic normalization program has not been implemented, just as the Association of municipalities with a Serbian majority has not been formed either.

But, there is a plan and I am very confident in how the whole process will end.

Serbia will finally recognize the independence and sovereignty of Kosovo and one of the key elements of this effort will be its integration into the European Union.

However, it remains to be seen how and when this goal will be achieved.

Mention the recognition of Kosovo by Serbia.

Are you talking about formal recognition, or tacit recognition, i.e. the model of two Germanys?

Charles Kupchan:

I believe formal recognition should be a prerequisite.

This is the leverage that the European Union has in relations with Serbia: full membership in exchange for the recognition of Kosovo.

However, there are two negative trends.

First, the EU's own enlargement fatigue.

On the other hand, while it becomes more and more clear that Serbia will have to recognize Kosovo in order to enter the EU, the enthusiasm of its citizens for European integration is decreasing.

Research shows that more than 50 percent of them are against EU membership.

Therefore, the question arises whether EU membership is a sufficient impetus for the Serbian leadership to recognize Kosovo...

Charles Kupchan:

I believe that, in the end, it will be a strong and sufficient incentive for Serbia to normalize relations with Kosovo.

Currently, these processes are in regression and the war in Ukraine is attracting the most attention.

The mass influx of Ukrainian refugees could slow down European integration.

However, I consider it a temporary pause.

It should be borne in mind that in addition to the war in Ukraine, the world is also going through a pandemic with all its consequences, including economic ones.

This may take some time, but it will not become a permanent operating rule.

The President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, has been trying to balance between the EU and Russia for years.

But now, because of the war in Ukraine, he can no longer sit on two chairs.

Taking into account the mood of the public, which is against Serbia's entry into the EU if the condition for this is the recognition of Kosovo, could it happen that, in the end, it will give up on European integration?

Charles Kupchan:

I think there is little chance of that.

Vučić has proven to be skilled in balancing and sitting on two chairs.

However, I do not believe that Serbia would like to be in a strategic limbo for a long time, or in an alliance with China and Russia, when the rest of the region is directed towards Euro-Atlantic integration.

Although Serbia has not imposed sanctions on Russia, the war in Ukraine has shown the true face of Moscow.

It is a reckless act of aggression against the neighbor.

The invasion of Ukraine and the destruction it has caused will damage Russia's reputation and damage Russia's position in the Balkans – which will accelerate the region's turn towards Europe and away from Moscow.

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Kupchan: Serbia will recognize Kosovo in exchange for EU membership