Greenland.

Photo: File.

Scientific research has shown that

sea level rise caused by the loss of the Greenland ice sheet is already inevitable

, even if the burning of fossil fuels that is causing the climate crisis ended overnight.

The research shows that the global warming recorded to date will lead to an

absolute minimum sea level rise of 27cm in Greenland alone, as 110 tonnes of ice melts.

If carbon emissions, melting of other ice sheets and thermal expansion of the ocean continue, sea level rise by several meters seems likely.

Billions of people live in coastal regions, making flooding caused by rising sea levels one of the most important long-term effects of the climate crisis.

If Greenland's record-breaking 2012 melt becomes a routine occurrence by the end of this century, which is possible, then

the ice sheet will cause a "staggering" 78cm rise in sea level, scientists say.

Previous studies have used computer models of ice sheet behavior to estimate future losses, however the physical processes are complex and this leads to significant uncertainties in the results.

Instead, the study published in the journal

Nature Climate Change

used satellite measurements of Greenland ice losses, as well as the shape of the ice sheet between the years 2000 and 2019. These data allowed scientists to calculate how far To this extent, the global warming recorded to date has thrown the ice sheet out of an equilibrium in which snowfall coincides with ice loss.

This allowed calculation of the amount of ice that must be lost to regain stability.

"This is a very conservative minimum," said Professor Jason Box of the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (Geus), who led the research.

“Realistically, we will see this figure more than double this century.”

The 27 cm estimate is a minimum because it only accounts for global warming recorded to date

and because it does not include some ways in which ice from glaciers is lost to ice sheet margins.

The advantage of this study is that it provides a robust estimate of the inevitable rise in sea level, although the method used does not give a time frame in which the ice will be lost.

However, based on scientists' general understanding of how ice sheets like Greenland lose ice to the ocean,

the researchers suggested that most of the increase would occur relatively soon.

In 2021, other scientists warned that a significant part of the Greenland ice sheet was on the brink of a critical point.

“The 27 cm minimum is the sea level rise deficit we have accumulated to date and we are going to pay for it, regardless of what we do from here on out,” said Dr. William Colgan, also of Geus.

“Whether it's 100 or 150 years from now, it will happen.

And the sea level rise that we are committed to is growing today, because of the climate trajectory that we are on.”

Colgan explained: “If (2012) becomes a typical year, then the committed loss increases to 78 cm, which is staggering, and the fact that we are already hovering in that range (of ice loss) is shocking. .

But the difference between 78 cm and 27 cm shows the (difference) that can be achieved with the application of the Paris agreement.

There is still a lot of room to minimize the damage.”

The Himalayan and Alpine glaciers are already on track to lose a third and half of their ice, respectively

, while some scientists believe that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is past the point where significant losses are unavoidable.

The warming of the oceans also expands, raising the sea level.

"There is growing support in the scientific literature for levels of increase of several meters in the next 100 to 200 years," Colgan noted.

Taking swift climate action could prevent the collapse of the colossal East Antarctic Ice Sheet

, which would cause a 52-meter rise in sea level if it were to melt completely.

Professor Gail Whiteman, from the University of Exeter, who was not part of the study team, commented:

“The results of this new study are hard for all business and political leaders who care about the future of humanity to ignore.

“This is bad news for the nearly 600 million people who live in coastal areas around the world.

As sea levels rise, they will become increasingly vulnerable, and this threatens roughly $1 trillion of global wealth."

He noted that political leaders must rapidly increase funding for climate adaptation and damage.

(With information from The List)