American analyst Janusz Bugajski, senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, says that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Russian President Vladimir Putin are playing the Kosovo card to rally nationalists and create discord.

"Belgrade and Moscow are counting on the escalation of the conflict in northern Kosovo to prevent Western officials from making any tough decisions on mutual recognition due to fear of violence," he says.

Bugajski warns that "the stage has been set for new crises in the Western Balkans, which may turn violent."

He estimates that the combination of the inadequacy of the European Union, American inattention and growing local tensions have empowered "the nationalist government of Serbia to escalate its claims to neighboring territories."

In his latest monthly column for the Sarajevo portal istraga.ba, Buganjski says the region is full of unresolved disputes that offer Moscow a wealth of opportunities even as it is losing the war in Ukraine.

"The Kremlin sees the Balkans as a strategic asset where it can undermine the role of Western institutions and claim that NATO has failed to provide stability", emphasizes Bugajski, Telegrafi reports.

"Putin's main ally in the region is Aleksandar Vučić, with whom he is in symbiosis.

Moscow is helping Belgrade build a 'Serbian world', according to which all Serbs should live in an enlarged state.

In return, he says, Serbia allows Russia to expand its regional reach through energy deals, intelligence penetration, military cooperation and disinformation.

Buganjski says Belgrade recently signed a new gas supply contract with Russia's Gazprom and is rebroadcasting the Kremlin's propaganda TV channels RT and Sputnik despite their ban across Europe.

According to him, the recent visit of Serbian Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin to Moscow pointed to Belgrade's strong support for Russian imperialism in return for the Kremlin's help to "freeze" Kosovo and defend Serbia in the event of a direct confrontation. with NATO.

"While the Serbian media is constantly releasing disinformation against Kosovo, Vučić is recycling the excuses that led to war and genocide in the 90s when he was Milosevic's Minister of Information.

The notion that Serbs are being persecuted in Kosovo should also reflect Russia's fabricated claims against Ukraine," says Buganjski, Telegraph reports.

He further says that the EU-mediated negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina may record some agreements, as in the recent agreement on freedom of movement, but without a definite deadline for interstate recognition, they will continue indefinitely.

Vucic and Putin, Bugajski points out, are playing the Kosovo card to rally nationalists and create discord.

"Belgrade and Moscow are counting on the escalation of the conflict in northern Kosovo to prevent Western officials from making any tough decisions on mutual recognition due to fear of violence."

He says Moscow also works closely with the head of the Serb entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Milorad Dodik, whose ambition is to split Bosnia and create another Serb state.

According to Bugajski, Moscow offers Dodik various forms of economic, military and propaganda assistance.

"Half-hearted EU sanctions failed to deter Dodik, while Croatian nationalist ambitions to create a third ethnic entity in Bosnia also helped him and his clients in Moscow."

He also says that “paradoxically, the moves to undermine Bosnian integrity were also aided by the Office of the High Representative (OHR), whose officials apparently do not understand that the consolidation of ethnic fiefdoms in Bosnia through unilateral elections is a recipe for armed conflict".

"Montenegro is also destabilized by the attack on its independent institutions by the Serbian nationalist parties that are closely linked to the Russian regime", emphasizes the American expert and a good acquaintance of the situation in the Balkans.

According to him, this includes recent demands for Serbian autonomy in some southern municipalities.

"Unfortunately, the faith of Western governments that supposed anti-corruption activists will be effective leaders has failed.

The short life of Dritan Abazovic's government is not surprising given its willingness to undermine Montenegrin sovereignty by signing privileged agreements with the Serbian Orthodox Church - an organization that does not recognize Montenegrin citizenship," Telegrafi reports.

"Furthermore, claims that the government has fought corruption are barren and hypocritical when its closest allies are party and religious leaders who were bribed by Moscow and in collaboration with Serbian officials," says Bugajski.

The American analyst estimates that "an investigation into the illegal Russian connections of any major political player would be a worthy cause for Montenegrin journalists and non-governmental organizations, as well as for all other Balkan countries."

According to him, Albania will be able to enter the regional conflict by Russian subversion.

"The recent penetration of the Albanian military facilities and the attacks on three of its soldiers is a clear provocation to disturb the country and create new problems for NATO.

The attack on the [military] base was aimed at provoking conflicts between the authorities and the opposition and diverting attention from the Serbian irredentist campaigns."

Buganjski estimates that "Tirana's support for the Open Balkans initiative, a geostrategic project designed to increase Serbia's regional role and Moscow's economic penetration, will not ensure Albania's immunity from the conflict."

According to him, the claims of some EU leaders about Europe's "strategic autonomy" sound absurd when they are unable to ensure security in a region that wants to join the EU.

Buganjski says that the European Union has dragged out the accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania, while membership for Bosnia and Kosovo is a distant prospect.

"Stability in North Macedonia has been undermined by EU member Bulgaria, whose government remains mired in unresolved historical disputes with Macedonia and is unwittingly helping Moscow further destabilize the region."

Bugajski says the Biden administration is also allowing Russia to penetrate the region by accepting Vucic's claims that he is pro-Western and does not want to alienate his supporters by sanctioning Russia.

"It is worth remembering how Slobodan Milosevic first deceived Washington when he said that he was the guarantor of the peace and integrity of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. The time of balancing has passed - either Serbia is a European country or it is connected to imperial Russia, which seeks to dismantle the Western world", says Bugajski.

"To avoid a new fire, the objectives of Serbia's aggressive policy must be fully protected."

"Both Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo need a path to NATO membership, and pro-Western forces in Montenegro need stronger support that will drive away the pro-Moscow nationalists promoted by Vučić.

Without a clear roadmap to guarantee regional security, Washington and Brussels will find themselves trying to put out more fires instead of disarming the arsonists," concludes Bugajski in the column for istraga.ba.

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