In October, the third extraordinary elections in the last year and two months will be held in Bulgaria.

The only government that the series of national assemblies during this period managed to produce, thanks to a rather complex quadruple coalition, survived only a few months before being the first to be ousted by a vote of no confidence, according to a Barometer analysis. 

The upcoming vote is shaping up to be unpredictable -

starting with the unclear voter turnout (about 40%)

, and ending with the results for the individual

political forces and the number of formations in the next parliament (from 5 to 8)

.

Over the past year, voters have shown increasingly distinct fatigue, apathy, expressed in low turnout.

It is not known whether this trend will continue with the combination of geopolitical, energy and economic crises and the increasingly distinct fragmentation of society.

It's possible that the build-up of tension will drive more people to the polls on Election Day.

And this will have an impact on the possible political configurations in the future parliament.

With low turnout, more parties will jump the electoral barrier with a more fragmented National Assembly, but also with more potential opportunities for a future coalition.

High turnout will play a bad joke on some of the parties that will remain below the line, and those above it will have to find a dialogue among themselves or not broadcast a government at all.

Parvan Simeonov: Everything looks like an attempt for each of the players to shake off the possible guilt

One of the parties that will be victorious in the elections in October - regardless of whether they are first in terms of results and whether they have a chance for independent governance - this is GERB.

They ruled the country for twelve years and it took a rallying of their opponents from across the political spectrum to oust them, but the real reason for their loss was voter fatigue of seeing the same faces.

While a year ago it was fashionable to blame GERB for everything, now this political message has lost much of its original force.

On the one hand, most of the problems the country is currently facing are global and brought in from outside, on the other hand, GERB were categorically kept out of power, so they are not responsible for actions or inactions of the last administration.

The result is that the exodus of voters to the party has long since stopped and they are now regaining the support of their more hesitant voters.

Those who won the most votes in the last elections - "We continue the change" - have declared their ambition to gather the cherished 121 deputies.

Which, in theory, are the minimum that would enable them to manage themselves.

Whether they will succeed is under a huge question mark, because it did not work out in the previous elections and they had to organize a coalition with ITN, BSP and DB, from which all participants came out with damage and loss of confidence.

And a year ago, they had two additional advantages that they no longer rely on - they were new and "untainted" and had the support of Rumen Radev's electorate.

The Bulgarian voter has been tirelessly searching for a new and unknown savior for the past thirty years and briefly recognized the PP as such, but these attitudes faded rather quickly.

The few months of governing of the coalition led by "Continuing the Change",

led to many cracks in their public image.

The fact is that many of the crises they faced would have been a challenge for far more experienced governments.

But voters' confidence is not inexhaustible, especially if their problems become increasingly tangible in the form of inflation, rising household bills and store prices.

The second factor that calls into question the election results of the PP is that a large part of Rumen Radev's voters, who voted for them in the previous vote, will no longer support them.

These elections are not "2 in 1", moreover, the PP entered into an open conflict with the president, who continues to be the only Bulgarian politician with positive trust levels.

especially if their problems become more tangible in the form of inflation, rising household bills and shop prices.

The second factor that calls into question the election results of the PP is that a large part of Rumen Radev's voters, who voted for them in the previous vote, will no longer support them.

These elections are not "2 in 1", moreover, the PP entered into an open conflict with the president, who continues to be the only Bulgarian politician with positive trust levels.

especially if their problems become more tangible in the form of inflation, rising household bills and shop prices.

The second factor that calls into question the election results of the PP is that a large part of Rumen Radev's voters, who voted for them in the previous vote, will no longer support them.

These elections are not "2 in 1", moreover, the PP entered into an open conflict with the president, who continues to be the only Bulgarian politician with positive trust levels.

However, the big fight in the election will not be for first place, but for third place, with the potential to turn into a surprising second result for one of the underrated players in the race.

Many analysts conveniently forget that in the previous elections, the third political force was DPS - thanks to the record number of votes that came from Turkey combined with the low voter turnout.

For years, the movement's results have been a problem for sociologists to predict because their voters are usually not covered by polls—or are part of small, gated communities and traditionally distrust pollsters (in person, by phone, or online). or they simply do not live in Bulgaria, and the sociological surveys are mainly conducted on the territory of the country.

For the elections in October, the movement will probably be able to count on its solid core of voters again - here and in neighboring Turkey, where the leader of the movement, Mustafa Karadayi, symbolically went to meet Erdogan.

However, their election result is not absolutely guaranteed because they are facing several problems.

First, there is no guarantee that voter turnout will be low again.

Second, the machine vote will again be a challenge for some voters - some of them precisely among the hard cores of the DPS.

And thirdly, a little-commented trend in the social dynamics of their voters, which has nothing to do with the political situation in Bulgaria - although the DPS is winning votes in Bulgaria and Turkey, it is increasingly difficult for them to mobilize the Bulgarian Turks living in Western Europe. where they have prominent communities.

the machine vote will again be a challenge for a part of the voters - some of them precisely among the hard cores of the DPS.

And thirdly, a little-commented trend in the social dynamics of their voters, which has nothing to do with the political situation in Bulgaria - although the DPS is winning votes in Bulgaria and Turkey, it is increasingly difficult for them to mobilize the Bulgarian Turks living in Western Europe. where they have prominent communities.

the machine vote will again be a challenge for a part of the voters - some of them precisely among the hard cores of the DPS.

And thirdly, a little-commented trend in the social dynamics of their voters, which has nothing to do with the political situation in Bulgaria - although the DPS is winning votes in Bulgaria and Turkey, it is increasingly difficult for them to mobilize the Bulgarian Turks living in Western Europe. where they have prominent communities.

"Revival" will be an unpredictable player in these elections.

Their voters also remain off the radar of sociologists, but for radically different reasons.

The ultra-nationalist party attracts a radical, punitive and hard-to-predict vote and is one of the formations that those voters who make up their mind at the last minute, sometimes on election day itself, tend to vote against, rather than for ".

In this case - "anti" the system itself.

It should be noted that while Vazrazhdane will certainly see growth and in the current complex political and economic environment have the potential to mobilize a significant protest vote, they also face some problems.

They are radical, anti-system and with a clearly pronounced extreme Russophile bias.

While voters are largely inclined to act out of frustration and "pity," those who will embrace a destructive political position that says everything must be torn down to start clean are a limited number.

Moreover, although a large part of society shares Russophile sentiments, an equally large part is pro-European, and even the hint of leaving the EU is viewed poorly.

Judging by the rhetoric of the leader of "Vazrazhdane", who has undoubtedly gained experience,

passing through all possible nationalist movements, his aim is to position himself in the vacuum left by the disappearance of "Attack", as well as to attract the disillusioned of all.

An obstacle for him is that he is not Volen Siderov, he is too well-known precisely among this segment of voters and too extreme for the more moderate ones.

It is important to note that regardless of the outcome, Revival has no chance of participating in the governance of the country after the election, unless their own "prophet" is proven right and they win an absolute victory.

While in the last parliament, although unasked, they repeatedly stated their conditions to participate in a coalition and they are unacceptable to all other political entities.

And although many political formations have set "red lines" for a coalition, either with GERB, DPS or BSP, the big, unspoken red line is that no one will allow a coalition with "Vazrazhdane".

The other party that will benefit from the current political situation is "Bulgarian Rise" of Stefan Yanev

.

The formation has the potential to attract those conservative, leftist, moderate and slightly Russophile voices who do not find their representation anywhere else at the moment and especially those who have traditionally been the electorate of the BSP, but no longer recognize them as their face.

Stefan Yanev was prime minister in the first caretaker government of Rumen Radev, boasting a high level of trust according to surveys at the time.

He then briefly served as Minister of Defense in the government of the last quadruple coalition, leaving it in conflict with Kiril Petkov, who currently works in his favor.

For a long time he was associated with Rumen Radev, and in recent months there has been a clear distancing between the two, but without any negativity and voters inevitably associate him with the president.

Even if "Bulgarian Rise" is not Rumen Radev's creation,

she is inevitably recognized by voters as the closest to him and could attract a fairly significant mass of his supporters.

Adding her positioning in the decidedly left, conservative segment and the extremely weakened position of the BSP with a clear outflow of voters looking for their representation, with a relatively low voter turnout, the general can not only find himself in the next National Assembly, but also be factor in whether or not there will be a government.

ITN will lose the next election, but less than most analysts assume.

With their decision to leave the quadruple coalition and effectively overthrow the "Petkov" government, they certainly earned the hatred of the DB and PP voters, but the truth is that these voters were never theirs anyway.

It is debatable how much they disappointed the supporters of the BSP, because in fact ITN saved part of the electorate of the centenary from the agony of seeing it in a rather contradictory administration from their point of view.

And the electorate, disappointed with the BSP, will go somewhere - for the most part to "Bulgarian Rise", but also to some extent to other political entities such as ITN.

What Slavi Trifonov and his party did not do was to disappoint the core of his voters.

On the contrary, they expected him to be corrective, to be uncompromising, to point out the mistakes and even to leave the management.

if his idea of ​​morality is affected.

And the word "morality" is not accidentally used by the leaders of ITN - it is very important for their electorate, which elected them several times precisely with the idea that a new morality is needed in management.

ITN will probably be far from the first political force after the October elections.

But it is equally likely that they will realize not only a sufficient result to jump the electoral barrier, but also that their voice will be heard again.

Because in the end they have everything they need - a leader that their mass of supporters like and not recently - after all, Slavi Trifonov has been on the scene for thirty years - they have their own media, and above all their own messages, which even if they are not everyone likes it, it finds its audience, which isn't particularly disappointed - it ends up being a pretty interesting political show.

One of the losing parties will be BSP.

For them, the problem is not even a matter of politics, but entirely of leadership.

Although Cornelia Ninova has established herself as the ever-surviving political leader – regardless of crises and internal opposition – this has come at a price.

Ninova left her party without significant local leaders (potential competitors for her leadership post) in the big cities of Bulgaria.

And the result was the outflow of voters even in opposition and even more so when the party is part of the government.

Because even though the BSP tries to convince its voters that their government is successful, few believe in it.

Almost every one of the scandals affecting the quadruple coalition had an effect on the BSP, and a negative one at that.

In recent years, a vacuum has gradually formed in the space on the left from the increasingly shrinking result of the BSP.

But that doesn't mean

that there are no leftist voters, on the contrary.

The only question remains - when and for whom they will go to the polls, instead of being included in the statistics of non-voters.

They elected Rumen Radev as president categorically twice.

But in October, many of them will certainly not vote for the BSP.

It remains to be seen if and for whom they will do it.

The other loser from the previous administration, although an active player in it, is "Democratic Bulgaria".

They entered parliament with a penultimate result, but managed to be a very active participant in governance.

There are several challenges for them.

DB are positioned on the right, extremely liberal and categorically Russophobic, targeting a very specific segment.

And although it sounds elite and flattering to be supported by the center of Sofia, to insult you as a "yellow-wearer" and "smart and handsome", their electorate is actually very limited, as some analysts say - boutique.

With their literal attack on Rosenets a year ago, they tried to expand it, but since then they have done nothing more.

Instead, they vehemently dug into ultra-liberal, pro-Western, anti-Russian talk.

Which isn't bad for their constituents, they expect exactly that from them, but it encapsulates them.

On the other hand, their coalition with the BSP is difficult for these same voters to swallow and questions which is more important - the expressed intentions or the real actions.

All these minor hiccups probably wouldn't be a problem for them, and with low voter turnout, they would still pass the electoral barrier if it weren't for the PPs who somehow positioned themselves in the same segment and targeted the same voters.

This partly explains the almost panicked efforts of the DB to convince their former coalition partner to form a coalition before the elections.

Because it is not a big drama to sacrifice 3-4 even 5 percent of your electoral support for your partner,

if you took more than 25% in the previous election.

But if you were at 6%, any loss of electorate, even to someone with whom you share the same beliefs, calls into question not just how strong your voice will be in the next administration, but whether you will even be in in the parliament.

"Democratic Bulgaria" will have a hard time crossing the electoral barrier, and it is making efforts to retain its own voters, as the only thing that would help them would be voter turnout, which is surprisingly low even for Bulgarian understandings.

Which cannot be relied upon categorically.

"Democratic Bulgaria" will have a hard time crossing the electoral barrier, and it is making efforts to retain its own voters, as the only thing that would help them would be voter turnout, which is surprisingly low even for Bulgarian understandings.

Which cannot be relied upon categorically.

"Democratic Bulgaria" will have a hard time crossing the electoral barrier, and it is making efforts to retain its own voters, as the only thing that would help them would be voter turnout, which is surprisingly low even for Bulgarian understandings.

Which cannot be relied upon categorically.

Boryana Dimitrova: It is possible that PP will be the first political force again

Several parties and politicians will remain out of parliament, although they will retain their voters compared to previous elections.

Maya Manolova has long established herself as a bright personality in Bulgarian political life, and although at the moment her movement "Stand Up BG" is not in its strongest form, it will retain the support of about 2% of the voters.

VMRO suffered very serious damage after the previous elections, but they manage to preserve their solid core with a slight upward trend and can also claim about 2% of the votes of those who went to the polls.