Positioning himself firmly against PP, Radev is about to make a clear choice, and this choice will be in favor of GERB and DPS. This will also be the official end of the idea of Radev as a fighter against corruption. What is Radev actually aiming for?
The fourth caretaker government of President Rumen Radev is taking its first steps.
Everyone is guessing whether Bulgaria will start paying for Russian gas in rubles in order to return to supplies from Gazprom.
Will the government stop arms exports to Ukraine?
Will it seek to return the expelled Russian diplomats?
Will the services finally seriously take up the investigation of Russia's probable sabotage in our country.
Will the government join the election campaign and on whose side...
Elections on October 2, the composition of the official cabinet also became clear, the Prime Minister is Galab Donev
The fact that these questions are not rhetorical is indicative of the fact that President Radev has lost his political direction in the last six months and has become a rather unpredictable political player.
Its current caretaker prime minister, Galab Donev, will have to act as if his direction is clear, even when it is not. The president's wanderings began with the war in Ukraine and ended with his looping about North Macedonia, regarding which he half-heartedly accepted the "French proposal" (undoubtedly good from the Bulgarian point of view).
Rumen Radev began his second term as a fighter against the "Borisov model".
In this role, he had muted his pro-Russian attitudes - he even apologized for his "mistake" in the televised debate with Prof. Gerdzhikov, when he (again) said that Crimea is Russian.
Half a year later, however, Radev became the main actor in the overthrow of Kiril Petkov's government.
Radev was in a hurry (and succeeded) to call early elections in October, in which GERB and DPS will try to return to power.
And on the geopolitical front, Radev emerged as a loner in the EU, who can possibly only look for a like-minded person in Viktor Orbán.
This complex political trajectory begs the question "what is Rumen Radev aiming for?". What is the meaning of his actions, which for many seem confusing and incomprehensible?
Russian gas stunner, cutie...
The most transparent thing is what the president is aiming for in terms of the country's energy security - the return of supplies from Gazprom.
For this purpose, the caretaker government formed a "crisis headquarters" against "chaos and destruction" in the energy sector.
In the last seven months, the word "chaos" acquired a specific meaning in Bulgaria - "a broken scheme, according to which the public resource went to specific private companies".
"Chaos in the roads", for example, means "the destruction of the schemes with five, six companies".
In the same way, the "chaos in energy" means the break in relations with "Gazprom", which happened after this company unilaterally cut off gas to the country.
Galab Donev apparently added "ruin" to "chaos" for luxury.
Worrying news about gas was announced by the acting energy minister
Inducing people's sense of crisis is done to justify an unjustified policy - to rely on Gazprom in the current situation, when this company is part of Putin's military plans, is curious to say the least.
A few days ago, Russia inexplicably stopped the gas to Latvia and systematically reduced the quantities to Germany.
The EU called on the member states to prepare for a complete interruption of gas supplies from Russia.
Precisely in this situation, instead of providing alternative sources - as the Petkov government sought to do and left ready-made offers to the cabinet - Galab Donev is clearly preparing the ground for the country's return to Gazprom.
The fight against "chaos" will obviously take place with the return of the old schemes that made Bulgaria highly dependent and vulnerable to Russia in terms of energy.
The head of the board of "Bulgargaz" Ivan Topchiyski issued the certificate saying that they were not looking for alternative supplies of liquefied gas because: "If any supplies from "Gazprom" are realized, we will have nothing to do with this gas, there is nowhere to put it store or use”.
I.e.
the country may run out of gas, but only if we leave room for renewed Russian supplies.
PP responded to the gas office: Do not be afraid!
"The fight against chaos and destruction" will probably also be expressed in additional bureaucratic delays of the already built new connection with Greece, so that it cannot be used at least until the end of the year for alternatives to "Gazprom".
In any case, the interests of the Russian company will be well protected and taken care of in the coming months in our country.
At the same time, however, if the Bulgarian national interest is not made of chewing gum or Turkish delight, it is not clear what it has to do with such a policy.
The quiet "orbanization" of foreign policy
The second priority of the cabinet will be "preventing Bulgaria's involvement in the war," according to Radev.
This probably means two things: not criticizing Russia and not sending weapons to Ukraine.
The first will be easy - Dove Donev will be a dove of peace, who will call for an end to the war, without expressing particular sympathy and support for the attacked, nor criticism of the aggressor.
It will be more interesting whether "drawing us into war" will end with the return of the expelled Russian diplomats or only the Russian gas supplies.
For the sake of decency, they will initially go for the material - the gas, and the intelligence-symbolic (diplomats) will wait to see the public reaction.
Radev introduced the cabinet and warned: The risk of the war covering new territories is real
Radev managed to pass under the radar of our partners in the EU and NATO because of the "Petkov" government and because of the clearly understandable European focus on Viktor Orbán.
But with this caretaker government, the Bulgarian "urbanization" of Terlitsi will certainly be stopped.
When clear collective plans are needed for the winter in all of Europe without Russian gas, Bulgaria bets on a policy that Putin will make an exception for it and guarantee it secure supplies.
Such (groundless) enthusiasm for Russia cannot fail to attract attention.
Regarding arms supplies, Radev's position is also clear - he is against it.
If the government does not adopt the "Ninova" approach - against words but not deeds - Bulgaria may deprive Ukraine of vitally important ammunition.
And this would already be direct material aid to the aggressor and a blow against solidarity within NATO.
The fight against Stirlitz and company
In Bulgaria, the Russian services apparently carry out "wet" orders.
There has been no response from the Bulgarian services so far.
Poisonings, explosions in warehouses and all this related to arms deliveries with the final destination Ukraine.
The shameful position on the Skripal case of the Boris government (which de facto supported Russia in the scandal) was the model from which we must shake off in order to be truly sovereign.
Galab Donev has not outlined this problem as his priority, and it is unlikely to enter the agenda of the official cabinet.
An outstretched hand to Borisov?
Lately, Borisov has been walking with his hand outstretched and hoping that some party leader will take it.
The PP refused the handshake for personal and principled reasons.
DB have experience with the Danish handshakes of the former prime minister and are also justifiably cautious.
DPS were not officially called, but Borisov has a more intimate relationship with them anyway.
In general, the outstretched hand could not catch anything so far, but it seems that it has a chance to catch Rumen Radev's hand.
According to Gazprom.
Borisov and Radev seem to be on the same page and can easily shake hands.
And for North Macedonia, they were on the same position and managed at the same (last) moment to turn around to accept the "French proposal" to solve a problem they had created together.
Boyko Borissov on the gas: In just a few days, I would come to terms with Erdogan and finish the topic
The greeting between Radev and Borisov will probably not become public.
But it would be enough for the caretaker government to focus on the fictional "chaos and ruin" of the last seven months and forget the ten years of previous government through schemes in the roads, the state border, gambling, etc.
This will be a very real service for Borisov: in fact, it will be an attempt to relegitimize him.
Radev can say that he is "equally distant" from all parties.
But he was not like that, and he is not now - his warm relationship with ITN, for example, is quite visible, and it was expressed both in the retention of Genchovska in the executive management, and in the coincidence of their positions on North Macedonia.
Teodora Genchovska joins the team of the Acting Minister of Defense
Positioning himself firmly against PP, however, Radev will make a clear choice in the current campaign and this choice will be in favor of GERB and DPS.
This will also be the official end of the idea of Radev as a fighter against corruption.
An even more Eurasian BSP?
The last ambiguity is what the BSP wants to see Rumen Radev.
The attraction of Krum Zarkov – a man with indisputable qualities and democratic and European attitudes – is a good sign for the direction of the alternative.
At the same time, however, Radev's criticism of Ninova's substantive policy is rather in a Eurasian direction: for example, that Ninova de facto allowed Bulgaria to export weapons with the final (unofficial) addressee Ukraine via Poland and other countries.
From this point of view, what Radev and Ninova are arguing about - beyond the personal tensions between them - remains incomprehensible.
We are unlikely to get more clarity in the next two months, but the campaign started with a clear opposition between Radev and the BSP.
And this opens the presidential valences to GERB and DPS, as mentioned.
Cornelia hit Radev: "Male complex towards the woman who made him president"
***
In conclusion, Rumen Radev seems to want to achieve the following goals: to return "Gazprom" to Bulgaria at least until the end of the year, but also with the prospect of a new commitment. To conduct an "orbanization" on Terlici regarding the country's positioning in relation to the war in Ukraine. To downplay the direct risks to Bulgaria's security from Russian sabotage. To relegitimize Borissov and the DPS by bringing the "anti-corruption fire" against the PP. And to change the leadership of the BSP without pushing this party in a more European direction. Two, three months is not a long time, but a lot can be done in them to achieve these goals.
*This comment expresses the author's personal opinion and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial staff and DV as a whole.