The other day, Alexander Lukashenko expressed his opinion that either the chairman of the Minsk Oblast Executive Committee, Alexander Turchyn, or Dmitri Kruty, who was recently agreed to be the new ambassador of Belarus to Russia, could be his successors.

Briefly

  • The other day, Lukashenka named the chairman of the Regional Executive Committee, Turchyn, and Krutoy, appointed ambassador to the Russian Federation, as his possible successors.

  • Such statements are not real plans, but a way of motivating the government apparatus.

  • Putin maintains similar uncertainty about his own participation in the presidential elections.

  • Naming various successors is a summary of the results of the "competition" for the most loyal and effective.

  • Such demonstrations are the result of the clash of understanding that sooner or later we will have to leave, and the acute feeling that there is no one to hand over power to, that anyone will destroy everything.

"Here I am looking, thinking, will the

Turk

be able to rule the country or not?

And if he can't?

And then it doesn't interfere.

Well, you won't interfere with the president.

No, I'm just saying.

Well,

Cool

, let's put it this way,"

Lukashenka

said during a visit to JSC "Kazlovichi-Agra".

It was said half-jokingly, I'm not sure.

But what do these statements mean?

It should be noted that this is not the first time they have been done.

In March of last year, he also stated that the new president could be either

Vladimir Karanik

, the head of the Horaden Region, or

Yury Karaev

, the assistant to the president of the Horaden Region.

"There is only one transition of power - elections.

The people chose everything.

My children will not be presidents after me.

I have two of my people here, they can participate in the presidential elections.

Moreover, they will be strong candidates.

One is a general, the other is a governor.

Young, new generation, intelligent.

They know the value of this country," Lukashenka said then.

Motivation by uncertainty

Both last year and this year, there were talks about possible successors — last but not least, about real plans for the transfer of presidential power, even if it is significantly limited under the new Constitution.

This is, first of all, a peculiar means of motivating officials, a hint that the reward for dedicated work can be the highest position in the state: work with all your might, tear up the veins - and who knows, maybe I will sit in my armchair.

At first glance, the uncertainty of the government perspective tends to destabilize the management system - how does a poor civil servant behave when it is not known what will happen in 2-3 years?

However, the presence of a small amount of uncertainty just mobilizes "sovereign people".

If everything is painfully clear with the future, why bother?

And Lukashenka needs to be pumped up.

That's why such a signal is sent from time to time - and it can be different, I can leave.

By the way, Vladimir Putin

behaves in a similar way

.

As if it were clear to everyone why the "nullification" of presidential terms was introduced into the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the speaker of the State Duma,

Vyacheslav Volodin

, said a long time ago: "There is Putin - there is Russia, there is no Putin - there is no Russia."

And Putin himself is silent about 2025.

A little intrigue in this matter is not only the preservation of a set of options, but also a means of keeping the control system in good shape.

So it's the same with Lukashenka.

In addition, the next naming of possible successors is also the announcement of today's favorites, summing up the results of the "competition" for the most loyal and effective.

Yesterday it was Karaev and Karanik, today it was Turchin and Kruty, tomorrow there may be others, the "competition" continues all the time.

At the same time, it is a test for officialdom.

Other officials should show due respect to the declared favorite.

However, God forbid they consider them future "fathers" and think that Lukashenka is already a departing nature.

Whoever manages to maintain this delicate hardware balance will at least stay in office.

This is a surrogate for competitive public policy in an authoritarian system — the ability to properly build relationships with favorites.

"To smother you like blind kittens"

Well, behind all this is a clash of understanding that sooner or later you will have to leave, at least for biological reasons, and a strong feeling that there is no one to hand over power to, that no one will pull, that anyone will screw up, or even lead to a catastrophe.

Hence, by the way, the line in the reasoning about Turchin's chances - "What if he can't?

And then you don't interfere."

There is a holy certainty that he will not be able to and that without intervention everything will fall apart.

It is clear that this is partly derived from the insane desire for power, from holding it for a long time, from daily listening to flatterers who assure: "No Lukashenka means no Belarus."

But this is a relatively independent conviction, which is reinforced by his own experience of the collapse of the USSR, and by the Russian culture to which he belongs, with its traumas of the Troubles.

A weak king will come, there will be no iron will and strong hand, everything will not just get worse - everything will fall apart, crumble to pieces.

Gorbachev

had, perhaps, no less

power—both formal and informal— than

Stalin.

But what happened to Gorbachev and the state he led?

By the way, according to Khrushchev

's memoirs ,

shortly before his death, Stalin said to the members of the Politburo: "Without me, the imperialists will strangle you like blind kittens."

This is for Lukashenka - what is Turchin, what is Cool, what are others: good, competent guys, but he thinks about himself, like Stalin about the party areopagus - "to smother you like blind kittens".

And on the other hand, it will be 68 years in less than a month.

Not prosperity, to put it mildly.

The clock is ticking.

In front of this unsolvable dilemma, the only thing left is to organize a show with "successors", like the one arranged in "Kazlovichi-Agra".

The opinions expressed in the blogs represent the views of the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position.

  • Yuri Drakakhrust

    Radio Svaboda journalist


    drakakhrusty@rferl.org

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