On the air of Nastoyaschech vremy, he told what signs he sees of Belarus' preparations for an invasion and whether such an invasion could be successful.

- What do you mean when you say that Belarus pushed everything it had to the border?

- Look, everything is very simple.

What do the large-scale exercises of the armed forces of any country look like: is it Belarus, is it Russia, Ukraine, Moldova?

The training plan is written, financial documents are signed, the composition of the participants, goals and tasks are determined: where do we start, what do we do, how do we end, who is responsible for what, how much it costs, how much canned goods, bread, fuel and lubricants, medicine are needed.

This plan is approved at the highest level.

That is, the Ministry of Finance must allocate money, the president as the commander-in-chief must approve this whole matter.

The scheme looks like this.

Belarus started training in December, if I'm not mistaken.

Then they continued them.

And so they continued them together until the 23rd.

You will laugh, but they extended them for the 12th time.

Can you imagine what it is?

You carry out the plan, roll out this imported gasoline allocated to you, use this oil, eat these canned goods.

The units must withdraw to the places of permanent deployment, and here they tell you: "We continue."

Where to take everything?

How do you transport everything logistically?

Reassert it at the level of ministries and agencies.

That is, bureaucratically and logistically it is a very difficult process.

And they repeat it for the 12th time.

- And this can be such a deception, in order to distract the Ukrainian forces from the east and from the south: "Look, they can attack you from the north.

Transferring your forces here"?

- They have already diverted part of the Armed Forces.

Naturally, they are expected, and our people are always there.

There is no simple beaten road for them - that's a fact.

But it is already a very expensive pleasure.

Moreover, look, in addition to these 12 times of extension of exercises, the other day a warehouse with equipment that went to protect the state border of Belarus from Ukraine was unloaded.

The second train in Baranavichy is also unloaded with equipment and is going to the border with Ukraine.

Russian helicopter pilots regularly arrive at the famous Belarusian airfield "Baranovichi" and stay there, Belarusian colleagues learn.

Why?

Naturally, the general course of training is conducting combat operations, conducting fire.

But the main thing they are focused on is the landing of the landing party.

How are they shelling Nikopol now, what are they shelling Nikolaev?

These are missiles of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile complex.

It is clear from the name that these are surface-to-air missiles.

In order to shoot down planes.

Russia has now turned them into land-land, they are shelling our cities.

There, the range of damage is not very large from the point of view of HIMARS - up to 40 kilometers.

Belarus is doing the same now: in addition to its "arty", in addition to its tanks, in addition to its own and Russian missiles, they are converting the S-300 into a surface-to-surface one.

Probably also to shoot not at Poland, not at Russia.

- Does this mean that last week Russia fired more than two dozen missiles at the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions from the Belarusian airfield "Zyabrovka" in one day, can this be considered as preparation for the invasion of the Belarusian army?

- Consider that there are still many Russians in Belarusian uniforms in the Belarusian army.

Some say that there are already 80% Russians.

According to the specialists with whom I communicate, the Belarusian army is afraid to enter, afraid to get involved.

Therefore, a very powerful missile attack will be carried out beforehand, and only then will they go on the scorched earth to occupy at least three regions.

They have no plans to go to Kyiv.

Putin had plans to go to Kyiv, but, according to various competent people, Putin and Lukashenka had an agreement: Putin takes the Donetsk region, announces the completion of the first phase of the so-called special operation, then Putin pushes all his forces towards Kyiv, and Lukashenka , in turn, enters from his side.

But we see that it did not work out with the Donetsk region - the Russians from there are slowly starting to run to Kherson in order to keep at least Kherson.

Because neither with Bakhmut, nor with Slavyansk, nor with Avdeyevka did they succeed.

There was such a scenario, now it can be changed.

The scenario is changing - life is alive.

- You say that the Belarusian side can occupy three Ukrainian regions.

What are these?

- I am afraid to make predictions now.

I know that it was about three areas, and you can draw a conclusion from the map quite simply and clearly.

But I will not draw conclusions now, because I do not know this.

- What then can be the plan to occupy any three regions from the north of Ukraine, if Kyiv is not the goal?

- Kyiv is a target, but Russian troops will go to Kyiv.

The task of Belarus is to occupy that piece, drag it there and make Ukraine weaker.

- Are you saying that 80% of Russian soldiers have already changed into Belarusian uniforms?

- I'm not saying that.

It is clear to us that there are a lot of Russians disguised in Belarusian uniforms - this is no secret to anyone.

But the percentage, of course, can be found out only as a result of a survey or investigation.

But a number of specialists say that it is already up to 80 percent.

- In your opinion, can the personnel abandon the offensive if such a decree arrives?

- Russian - no.

- And Belarusian?

- Belarusian can, but it is solved simply, as with those mobilized in Donetsk, Luhansk, Lisichansk or Severodanetsk: barricade behind, and you will run like a baby.

And, secondly, if there are really 80% Russians and 20% Belarusians in the military, then try not to go.

Of course, they will go.

We assume the worst.

Independent verification of information about military actions provided by officials of various parties is still impossible.