In the West, they expect that after July 23, Gazprom will resume the supply of raw materials through Nord Stream-1, which was suspended under the guise of repairing the gas pipeline.

And, nevertheless, the very panicked expectation of the restoration of supplies already demonstrates the level of dependence of European countries, and above all Germany, on the Russian monopolist.

There is not much time left until winter, gas storages are not filled in sufficient quantity, Russia can at any moment suspend or reduce gas supplies via "bypass" routes, and supplies through the Ukrainian gas transport system can stop regardless of Gazprom's wishes.

Any new stage of the war can simply lead to interruptions in the work of the Ukrainian "pipe".

And what then?

Then - an increase in the prices of basic goods, cold in the houses, an industrial crisis, which means - an increase in unemployment.

The same Bavaria, the center of German engineering, depends to a very large extent on Russian supplies, which simply cannot be replaced.

A similar problem exists in the northern lands of Germany.

Italy, despite all the efforts of Prime Minister Mario Draghi and increasing supplies from Algeria, still cannot refuse Russian supplies.

And if Russia refuses on its own, it could lead to an intensification of the political crisis in Italy and help the success of the forces calling for a common language with Vladimir Putin.

Putin has been preparing for this situation for a long time.

Not even to the war as such, but to the possibility of the "return" of Ukraine.

By any means, of course.

When Putin and Alexei Miller made the decision to build bypass pipelines, they were not thinking about profit, not about the payback of the projects, but about "common sense".

About the "common sense" of the Ukrainian leadership, which will realize in time that the lack of cheap Russian gas and transit revenues is a disaster.

And about the "common sense" of Europeans, who will understand that they should not stand up for Ukrainians in a situation where Germany, Italy, and other countries are critically dependent on Russian supplies.

All that Putin needed to start the "special operation" was to secure this critical dependency.

For decades, Ukrainian experts assured their European colleagues that "bypass" gas pipelines are only a tool for creating dependence.

And after they are built, ideal conditions will be created for a great war in Europe.

But the Europeans dismissed the Ukrainians: they could not understand how such crazy money could be exchanged for war.

It turned out that it is possible.

That territories are more expensive than money.

But Putin miscalculated in one thing: "sanity" never came.

Ukrainians did not agree to exchange cheap gas and transit status for freedom.

And European support for Ukraine only grows with each new day of Putin's senseless and bloody war.

All that remains for the Russian president in these conditions is blackmail.

He wants to leave Europe without Russian gas even before the continent learns to do without Russian supplies.

To play ahead in the calculation that panic and fear of a cold winter will force Europeans to abandon their support for Ukraine and agree to Putin's model of a world based on strength.

The Kremlin sacrifices to war and blackmail one of the last Russian political myths – the myth of the reliability of energy supplies.

But Putin can also miscalculate with this blackmail, as he miscalculated with the war.

Cold blackmail can only increase mistrust and make Europeans forget about economic cooperation with Russia - even those Europeans who believed in the reasonableness and benefits of such cooperation.

Even Gerhard Schröder may stop calling Putin if he has nothing to heat his own house.

As a result, energetic cooperation of the civilized world with Moscow will remain in the past for a long time.

Although yes, it will be very difficult for all of us, those who live or want to live in this civilized world.

And maybe it's not very warm.