Of course, there are no automatic guarantees that Ukraine and Moldova, which have now officially become candidates for EU membership, will soon be able to achieve full membership.

Turkey has been a candidate for the EU since 1999 and, given the nature of the political regime there, is unlikely to join the European Union sooner than Moldova and Ukraine.

On the other hand, in other countries the path from candidacy to EU membership has been specifically defined and quite successful.

In the Baltic States, the whole procedure from application to accession to the EU took 9 years, in Poland and Hungary - 10, in the Czech Republic - 8. The goal is quite achievable, if there was political will.

The situation in Ukraine is specific, because it is unknown when and how the war will end, what Ukraine will be like after the war and what efforts will be required for its post-war reconstruction.

But the chances of Moldova, which for obvious reasons is given less attention, are quite realistic: a compact small country, slightly larger than Latvia, with a reformist government and a lawyer inside the EU in the form of ethnically close Romania.

Politically and psychologically, Belarus is perceived in the West as part of the same region as Moldova and Ukraine.

And so, if you're lucky, in theory, Belarus can still have time to jump on the same train and join the European Union with them.

When Ukraine and Moldova embarked on the path of joining the EU, there are no more "civilizational" arguments: why should Belarus not be there, other things being equal.

More precisely, to rely on the idea that the east of the Bug is no longer quite Europe - now means to think like Putin.

And few in the West now want to associate with Putin.

Lukashenko's current militant rhetoric sounds and is perceived as a reassurance session for the Russian dictator: "Yes, you have finally lost Ukraine and Moldova, but look, you have such a sincere and loyal friend like me."

Of course, this is a very timely gesture in order to get additional financial and political support from Putin.

And Lukashenko gets it.

However, for this the Kremlin may demand something more than the finalized status of the latter, not even an ally, but at least simply not an open enemy of Putin's Russia on the European continent.

Over the past week, there has been more talk about the possibility of war between Belarus and Ukraine, and the possibility of Russia's war against NATO.

Circumstances are alarming.

And yet Belarus will definitely be in Europe, will definitely become a wealthy and successful country.

Provided it survives the current war.

And provided that Ukraine wins this war.

Opinions expressed in blogs convey the views of the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect the position of the editors.

• Ales Chajczyc

  Born in 1984 in Moscow.

  Since the early 2000s he has been an activist of the Belarusian diaspora in Russia, and later in Great Britain.

  Since 2013 he has been a member of the Council of the Belarusian People's Republic.

  In 2017–2021.

  member of the Great Council of the Association of Belarusians of the World "Fatherland".

  Published in "Nasha Niva", "Belarusian Partisan" and others.

  Lives in Germany.

  He was awarded a medal for the centenary of the BNR.

  ales@cajcyc.org

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