Briefly:

• Some media have concluded from Sheiman's visit that preparations are underway for the official recognition of Abkhazia by Minsk as an independent state.

• If Minsk had plans to recognize Abkhazia, it would not be necessary to send some officials there.

• As soon as Minsk recognizes all these "DNR", "LNR", Abkhazia, etc., the question immediately arises about the entry of these puppet formations in the "union state" of Belarus and Russia.

• In this case, the status of Belarus will fall sharply to the level of almost unrecognized small quasi-state entities.

According to the press service of the head of self-proclaimed Abkhazia, Alexander Lukashenko's Special Representative

visited the "country" on Friday, June 24, and held an official meeting with its President

in the presence of Foreign Minister

.

It would seem that the event is hammering, routine.

However, some media concluded that preparations were under way for official recognition of Abkhazia as an independent state by Minsk.

I think such conclusions are premature.

If the Belarusian authorities were really going to recognize Abkhazia, they would send a higher-ranking official there, such as the Deputy Prime Minister or Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration.

And Sheiman now does not hold important positions.

Lukashenka's special envoy is such an artificially invented status.

And in general, if Minsk had plans to recognize Abkhazia, it would not be necessary to send some officials there.

In that case, the Foreign Ministry could make an official statement or Lukashenko would issue a decree of the appropriate content.

And, note, information about Sheiman's visit appeared with reference to Abkhazian sources.

Belarusian state media somehow do not mention him.

It also shows the true scale of the event and the reality of plans to recognize Abkhazia.

And the fact that Sheiman was accepted at the level of "president" is also clear.

Almost no one recognized Abkhazia as an independent state.

None of the officials comes there from abroad, except for Russian officials.

And they welcome any visit from a third country, even if the guest has questionable status.

In fact, Sheiman's visit is such an imitation, a diplomatic game.

Its purpose is to show that, say, we recognize the de facto independence of self-proclaimed Abkhazia, and to avoid recognizing it de jure.

It's like the Crimea.

Lukashenka said in words that we recognize him as Russian.

But there is no official document in this regard.

And he has not visited Crimea yet.

Only sent there a delegation of pro-government propagandists.

There was information that a train would allegedly go from Belarus to Crimea.

But something failed.

The same with the Donbass.

Here the deputy Gaidukevich went there, gave a lot of interviews.

And "DNR" and "LNR" in Minsk were never recognized.

It would seem that now the Belarusian regime is in such a situation that it has nothing to lose, everything that can be lost is already lost.

I could recognize all these self-proclaimed republics.

According to the principle: the barn, the mountains and the house burned down.

However, there is one problem.

The fact is that as soon as Minsk recognizes all these "DNR", "LNR", Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, the question immediately arises about the entry of these puppet formations in the "union state" of Belarus and Russia.

And this is very unpleasant for Lukashenka.

Now Belarus is an exclusive ally for Russia.

Once a month, Lukashenko meets with Putin, and this, in addition to economic dividends, gives him a certain political foundation in the eyes of his own nomenclature.

And if the "union state" turns into a "union of puppets of Russia", the status of Belarus will fall sharply to the level of these almost unrecognized small quasi-state formations.

It is very shameful for official Minsk and personally for Lukashenka.

Therefore, Minsk responds to Moscow's request to recognize Abkhazia: and we will send Sheiman there.

He will express all support, great respect and readiness for comprehensive cooperation.

And the promise of quick recognition.

Someday, in the near future.

And so that no one doubts, here are gifts for you personally from Lukashenko.

Opinions expressed in blogs convey the views of the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect the position of the editors.

• Valery Karbalevich

  Born in 1955.

  He graduated from the History Department of the Belarusian State University, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Associate Professor.

  Radio Svaboda political commentator.

  
  
  

  karbalevich@gmail.com

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