A knife in the back and the fraternal one, this is how he was commented by a part of the public in Serbia, after Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned for the first time the example of Kosovo in the context of recognizing the pro-Russian separatist region of Donbas in Ukraine.

The logic of the Russian authorities "if Kosovo can, then Donetsk and Luhansk can" has not been well received in Serbia, which has had a strong ally Russia since February 17, 2008, when Kosovo declared independence.

But Russia will continue to use Kosovo's precedent to justify the unilateral secession and declaration of independence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed this month at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum when he again mentioned that example, explaining the Russian recognition of these two regions in Ukraine.

"When Kosovo declared independence, the International Court of Justice, under pressure from Western countries, ruled that, according to the UN Charter, when a state declares independence, there is no need to seek permission from the central government.

"This means that the Donbas republics should not have asked for permission from Kiev," said Putin, who expressed an almost identical stance in a meeting with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Serbian media

"Nova"

writes. , Telegrafi reports.

What does Putin's statement mean if we exclude it from the context to which it is clearly dedicated, and that is the justification of the occupation of Ukraine and the recognition by Russia of the independence of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Kosovo as a "currency for savings"

Knife behind Serbia, which will have as an epilogue the change of Russian policy towards the official Belgrade's position on Kosovo independence, Moscow's recognition of the existence of the state of Kosovo, whether Serbia likes it or not, or in practice, does not mean anything other than a "precedent" occurred by chance in Ukraine, so it should be treated as such.

Former Serbian Ambassador to Belarus Srecko Djukic, who even after the first comparison of Kosovo with Donetsk and Luhansk, stressed that "Russia recognized Kosovo", and reminded Al Jazeera that Putin regularly uses Kosovo for his own interests.

"Referring to the precedent, he always says that if the United States can make Kosovo independent, why Russia can not make South Ossetia independent and the so-called other states.

He regularly says that Russia is better than America, but they are following the same path.

"He accuses the United States of wars in other countries and does the same."

"Putin regularly uses Kosovo as a sub-currency for his own interests and those of his new states, from South Ossetia and Abkhazia to these two so-called Donbas republics.

"It is not just about Kosovo, but about the whole Balkans, which serves for its interesting games", says Djukic.

Naim Leo Beshiri, director of the Institute for European Affairs in Belgrade, says that in addition to justifying actions against Donbas with his words, Putin has used the opportunity to continue the hybrid war with the West, on the back of the Balkans.

Putin has consistently used the example of Kosovo in this context and continues to do so as part of his hybrid war, which he is waging not only against Ukraine but against all of Europe.

On the one hand, it cuts off gas to countries that have paid for it or agreed in advance, and on the other hand, it tries to provoke the West and the European Union in some way, destabilizing some regions and causing insecurity in them.

"I am talking about Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, where this is done through (member of the Presidency of BiH from the ranks of the Serbian people) Milorad Dodik", says Beshiri.

"This has been his policy in the Balkans since 1999: to maintain constant tensions in the Western Balkan countries.

Putin is thus using Kosovo to deal with the West.

"Russian and Serbian media, which in some way support or are financially connected to Russia, repeat Putin's words in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina and further destabilize the situation in favor of Russia," he added, Telegrafi reports.

An inappropriate moment for Serbia

Serbian Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin hastened to calm the passions in Serbia with a statement on Twitter, saying that "Russia does not change its position" and that "it will not recognize Kosovo as independent", but the reactions of those were opposite. pro-Europeans who do not approve of Russian aggression in Ukraine and the delay in imposing Serbia's sanctions on Russia.

"People who support Russia and Putin, and consider him the defender of Kosovo within Serbia, and there are many of them, suddenly became clear and realized that neither Putin nor Russia are really interested in Kosovo or Serbia, but only in the plans. and its interests, for Russia and its enlargement ", commented Orhan Dragash, Serbian expert on security and international relations and founder and director of the non-governmental Institute for International Security.

Despite the logical question of whether Russia will change its position on the Kosovo issue in practice, and not only with such verbal statements, Leo Beshiri still does not think that this can happen.

Putin's statements came at an extremely difficult time for Serbia, which is facing pressure from the West to recognize Kosovo as one of the preconditions on the road to the European Union.

If Russia's support for Serbia weakens over the Kosovo issue, the question is what would happen next?

"As things stand, I do not believe anything will change.

If (Serbian President) Vuiqiiq goes directly to attack Russia, in the sense that, for example, in some extreme cases he nationalizes the Serbian Oil Industry (which was sold to the Russians), imposes sanctions on Russia, expels Russian diplomats and part of good of the spies, close the humanitarian center in Nis, then maybe a more drastic reaction could be expected from Moscow ", said Beshiri.

However, he does not expect that to happen.

"At the moment it seems to me that Vucic is aware of all the messages coming from Moscow, that they are not only directed against the Euro-Atlantic future of Serbia, but send a message to the Vucic regime, as well as to those who will directly attack Russia. their safety is seriously endangered.

"It is clear that Russia at the moment is lonely and torn in some ways, but history has shown that it is vindictive, of which Vucic is aware," he added, Telegrafi reports.

Asked whether Putin's stances on Kosovo and the Donbas region could affect the climate in Serbia due to the imposition of sanctions, which are coming under pressure from both the US and the EU, Beshiri said he did not expect sudden reactions.

"I will not help those statements in any way, especially as the right wing of a clearly pro-Russian mood is strengthening in Serbia.

He is aware of this.

There is a strong critical mass in Serbia, aggressive and violent, which could be mobilized if the government or Vucic historically said no to Moscow.

But, as things stand, there should be no unexpected reactions from Belgrade and Moscow, while Vucic will quietly continue to stand on the side of EU sanctions against Russia, on the pretext that Serbia does not want this, but it is forced ", said Beshiri.

Djukic does not expect changes in Russia's policy towards Kosovo in the current circumstances, but also raises the issue of Russia's future influence on the world political scene, where the Kremlin has so far shared Serbia's interests.

"We really do not know what the world will look like after February 24.

The question is whether the United Nations Security Council will look like it has so far and whether some key issues of world politics will be resolved there.

And will there be any right of veto (with which Russia has so far decided on Kosovo)?

"Now we have the behavior of Russia in the way of a great power, but it does not have the capacity and preconditions for such behavior," he said.

"NATO will soon adopt a completely new concept and strategy of action and will turn into a military-political alliance.

The creation of new international institutes is expected, in which Russia will not be, so the question is to what extent Russia will ask for something.

"And if asked, she will act pragmatically and in accordance with her interests and will try to solve her problems again through Kosovo," Djukic added.

Kosovo political analyst Shkelzen Maliqi also expects Putin to continue playing his game exclusively.

"These statements are nothing new.

Kosovo has been in these histories since the Georgian regions.

"My assessment is that Putin will play both this and that card, as he wants at a certain moment and depending on his interests", said Maliqi.

"I expect Putin to continue to use his veto power in the UN when it comes to Kosovo and to oppose its recognition," he added.

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Telegraphy

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