Thai economic miracle Fitch keeps BBB+ stable

the wind changes direction

24 Jun 2022 5:40 a.m.

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not called miracle

I don't know what to call it when you Patricia Mongkolvanich, director of the Public Debt Management Office (SorBor.) announced the rankings.

The credit rating of Thailand (Sovereign Credit Rating) from Fitch Rating (Fitch) said that it received BBB+ and maintained Thailand's creditworthiness at a stable level.

The public finance sector is strong.

The government debt to GDP ratio in 2022 is projected to increase to 55.4%, with an increase of 56.6% to GDP in 2026. However, the Thai government will be able to manage the risk of rising public debt as well

Fitch also expects Thailand's economy to expand at 4.5% on the back of a recovery in domestic demand and a return of tourists.

This is expected to increase from 6.5 million in 2022 to 22 million in 2023.

Government public debt figures at Fitch Ratings, the world's largest credit rating agency.

used for analysis

“Is this correct?” I cannot know.

But I have information from the Cabinet meeting on May 31, 2022. Mr. Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana, spokesman for the Prime Minister's Office, stated that the Cabinet acknowledged the latest public debt ratio report on March 31, 2022 at 9.95. Trillion baht, accounting for 60.58% of GDP at 16.4 trillion baht, but still within the framework of fiscal sustainability of not more than 70%.

From May 31, the Cabinet acknowledged that

Public debt stood at 60.58% after just 21 days. On June 21, Ms. Patricia announced that Fitch Ratings' Thailand 2022 Credit Ratings showed that Thailand's 2022 public debt was 55.4% of GDP. 5.18% of the debt disappeared, which, based on GDP, is above 849 billion baht, and Fitch Ratings also expects the government's public debt in 2026 (4 years) to rise to 56.6%. Is it possible?

I think Patricia will have to clear the public debt figure with Fitch Ratings to be clear.

Otherwise it will cause confusion to investors.

How much is the Thai government's public debt? 60.58% of GDP as reported by the Cabinet, or 55.4% as referenced by Fitch Ratings.

which will result in

Thailand's credit rating change from BBB++ is possible.

same day

Public Debt Management Office

Announcing the results of Fitch Ratings' Thailand Credit Rating Ms. Danucha Pitchayanan, Secretary-General of the NESDB.

Went to give a speech at the Stronger Thailand event that the NESDB had projected the Thai economy in 2022 to expand by 2.5-3.5%, with a mean value of 3%.

Bank of Thailand and the Ministry of Finance that the assumption of economic growth of 3% this year is still possible or not.

Because there are still many factors that affect the economy such as inflation.

about energy prices

However, all agencies agree that

The Thai economy will expand by 3% this year, a lower GDP figure than Fitch Ratings' forecast of 4.5%, a difference of 1.5%.

As for next year 2023, Ms. Danucha said that the NESDB expects the Thai economy to expand by 3.7 percent, lower than other economic bureaus.

that the Thai economy will grow at an average of 4.3-4.5%

Which numbers are correct? I think the Public Debt Management Office and Fitch Ratings have to clear things up.

Because it directly affects the decision of investors in Thailand.

"The wind changes direction"

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