The declining trend of births and the increasing migration of the population may cause demographic changes in Kosovo.

According to the data of the Agency of Statistics, since 2014, Kosovo has registered a decrease in birth rate almost every year.

In 2014, the number of live births was 25,929.

In 2019, 21,798 live births were registered, while in 2020 - 18,188.

There was an increase only last year, when 28,549 were registered.

On the other hand, according to a document published by the Government Migration Authority, for the period 2018-2020, 71,799 inhabitants have emigrated from Kosovo.

The projection of the Kosovo Agency of Statistics for the years 2011-2061 shows that 2034 is expected to be the year when Kosovo will begin to face depopulation as a demographic problem, which from decade to decade will continue to deepen.

Sociological factors

In a Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFE / RL) survey conducted in Pristina, women and men single out economic conditions as one of the main factors influencing young parents' decision to have fewer children.

Ismet Arifi, a 64-year-old lawyer from Podujeva, says parents of the younger generation want a better standard for their children.

"Unemployment ojnë requires a better standard… can not meet the conditions", are the reasons that Arifi thinks lead to fewer births.

Elmina Osmani, 42, from Prishtina, mother of a 15-year-old child, says that external factors influence the decision to have more or less children.

"There is little dynamism in life that forces you not to have many children.

"Over the years, I have seen that in order to raise a child well, it takes a lot of effort", says Elmina, a journalist by profession.

Adding that her mother has given birth to three children, she says she feels fulfilled with only one.

Experts in sociology and anthropology link the decline in the birth rate in Kosovo with, as they say, the social and economic changes that society has undergone in recent years.

Nita Luci, a professor in the Department of Sociology at the University of Prishtina, says that economic security and the emancipation of women are among the main factors influencing parents' decision to have fewer children.

Kosovo, over the years, has had a high birth rate and this happened because “we were a more agrarian society;

"This has affected the way the family is structured," says Luci.

"Women's work at home is seen as something natural, and now it is treated differently," she added.

According to Luc, society today is profit-oriented, while it is more difficult to balance having more children with two parents working full time.

According to the data of the Agency of Statistics, the unemployment rate in Kosovo is over 25 percent, while employment among women is about 15%.

Tahir Latifi, a professor in the Department of Anthropology, says that the social, economic and political transformations of the post-1998-99 period "naturally affected the structure of the family, and consequently the demographic transition".

"The current generation no longer sees the guarantee of a good welfare from the number of children born, but from the creation of the best possible conditions for a quality education and schooling, to adapt to the needs of the labor market. ", Says Latifi.

The number of students in schools is falling

Kosovo schools have been left with over 9,000 fewer students in the last school year.

These are the numbers of students and teachers in pre-primary, lower secondary and upper secondary education.

He adds that Kosovo needs social policies that promote motherhood, related to employment, respectively that "do not endanger the career of women."

According to demographer Mimoza Dushi, the decline in the number of births is a normal trend in the face of social development.

"It is very true that the birth rate has begun to decline in Kosovo, as well as in other countries in the region and beyond," says Dushi.

She adds that the change in the birth rate will have an impact on the demographic development of Kosovo.

"The average age of the population will increase and in the future the demographic age rate will increase.

But, it is all in line with [social] factors and developments.

"They influence and develop each other," says Dushi.

Migration factor

According to figures from the Kosovo Agency of Statistics in January 2021, the total resident population in Kosovo was 1,798,188 inhabitants.

Meanwhile, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, in the period 2013-2017, on average up to 35 thousand citizens of Kosovo have emigrated annually.

According to a study by the Institute for Development Policy (INDEP), published in 2021, emigration is mainly caused by economic conditions.

"The main causes, which have forced the population to emigrate, were and remain: low level of economic development, devastation from wars, as well as the unfavorable political situation," said the research.

According to this research, which is based on the projections of the Kosovo Agency of Statistics for the period 2011-2061, the only category of population that will have continuous growth in Kosovo, will be the age group over 60 years.

"Compared to 2011, in 2031 this age group will increase by 185,197 people (109.1%), which means that it will double," said the research.

According to INDEP, the situation with the decline and aging of the population "is so unfavorable that it can be defined as a demographic crisis."

The last census in Kosovo was done in 2011, while the census that was supposed to be done in 2021, has been postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the 2011 census, the average number of a household in the country was 5.9 inhabitants.

The Government of Kosovo has not answered the question of Radio Free Europe when the next population census is scheduled to take place.