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The last card solves the problem of expensive gas.
Ask to share the profit from the refining fee to help the people.
Thai Rath Edition
20 Jun 2022 6:50 a.m.
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The time bomb that Mr Korn Chatikavanij, the leader of the Kla Party, came out to reveal that in the midst of the current high oil price situation Thais are being robbed of refining fees from Thai refineries. during the past week
It states that the refining margin in 2021 was only 0.87 baht per liter, but in 2022, the rising retail oil price
This caused the refining margin to rise to 8.56 baht per liter, an increase of 10 times even though the refining cost did not increase.
As a result, the refinery has a huge profit.
Therefore, it has proposed to reduce the refining margin to be equal to 2021 in order to bring the price of oil down to 7 baht per liter.
So the job goes to the government
General Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prime Minister, as well as Mr. Supattanapong Panmeechao, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy, who are being watched by Thai people all over the country.
Why can't the oil price problem be solved more significantly?
especially the price of diesel
which is the main fuel in transportation
with demand for more than 60 million barrels per day
Because as soon as the diesel price rises by 1 baht per liter, causing the cost to increase by 1 baht per liter, or account for a 3% increase in transportation costs, the Land Transport Federation of Thailand is preparing to increase the freight cost by 3%.
Importantly, when the shipping cost increases, the price of all kinds of products must be adjusted accordingly. As a result, consumers bear the burden of living costs inevitably.
The problem began to worsen late last year.
But at that time, the government saw it as
“Short-term problems” from the Russo-Ukraine war
Global economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis
starting to unravel
and the global economy began to recover
while OPEC Plus, a major oil producer
does not increase the amount of crude oil production to the world market
Today's situation has become an unprecedented crisis in Thailand. It is "the oil price crisis that overlaps the sluggish economic crisis".
However, despite the severity
But the government as the country's leader cannot deny it.
It is necessary to find a way to alleviate the suffering of the people as much as possible.
And it's not just for people to stick to their opinions.
"Self-reliance" as Mr Supattanapong had previously said.
"Economic Team" would like to project the reality in this matter.
both the world oil price situation
The direction of domestic oil prices
The troublesome refining value
as well as case studies of many countries that have ways to overcome this crisis, as follows....
world oil volatility
Starting at the latest situation
After the government has begun to move the ceiling of diesel retail prices continuously.
since the end of the month
last Apr
Most recently, the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Fuel Fund (FDA) was held on June 13 in the past.
Has considered reviewing the weekly diesel retail price again.
With a resolution to raise the price of diesel fuel by 1 baht per liter, resulting in a diesel retail price adjusted from 33.94 baht per liter to 34.94 baht per liter since June 14, close to 35 baht per liter, which is like straw. The last line that Thai people are difficult to accept.
The reason for the price adjustment is due to the high volatility of oil prices in the world market.
The price of diesel (Gas Oil) was $172.77 per barrel.
increase from the beginning of the month
June with a price of $158.29 a barrel.
This was a result of oil demand that tends to continue to recover from the US.
The labor market grew strongly in May and China began to gradually ease its lockdown measures in Shanghai and Beijing.
which will result in various economic activities
China is expected to begin to recover again.
And even though OPEC Plus voted to increase production by about 648,000 bpd in July and August, more than the previous agreement to increase production by only 432,000 bpd until July. Sept.
But many oil price analysts
The actual increase in production volume is expected to be quite limited.
This is because OPEC+'s main production capacity is limited and mainly in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
And from now on, if the Russo-Ukrainian war continues
Oil price analysts also confirmed that oil prices will remain volatile until the end of the year.
while in Thailand
Although the government has tried its best to solve the problem in the past.
But it may be because of the complacency that this crisis will not last long.
therefore did not prepare an escape route in advance
"diesel half a person" is not enough
by measures to help in the price of diesel in the first
According to the Cabinet resolution (Cabinet) on March 22, the past has ordered to freeze the ceiling price of not more than 30 baht per liter in the month.
Apr and use the method to carry the excess price ceiling that has been raised by only half or the policy
"diesel half a person" with the other half of the price to be adjusted
will allow people to share the burden in the month
This May-June
but will be gradually adjusted up and down according to the situation on a weekly basis
While on April 27, the BOI approved to raise the diesel price step by step for the first time on May 1 and set the new ceiling to be no more than 35 baht per liter from 30 baht per liter. liters based on the resolution
The cabinet said that the excess of 30 baht per liter, the fuel fund will subsidize half and the actual price will increase by half. It
appears that the world diesel price has rebounded to 142 US dollars per barrel.
aggravated by the depreciation of the baht
Has made the actual cost of the domestic retail diesel price at 40 baht per liter and if the price has to be adjusted immediately
The price, fixed at 30 baht per liter, will rise to 35 baht per liter.
Therefore, the FCA has to raise the ceiling to 32 baht per liter and gradually move the price up to the current price.
while the real price at the moment has risen to 45 baht per liter
In addition, from July 1 onwards, the selling price of cooking gas (LPG) with a tank of 15 kilograms (kg). The BOI has approved to increase the price by 0.93 baht per kg or more, at 378 baht per tank on August 1, at 393 baht per tank, on September 1, at 408 baht per tank, from the actual price of 460 baht per tank by using the oil fund to support as well.
Diesel and LPG price subsidies have hampered the state of the oil fund.
Last week, a total of 91,089 million baht was negative and to solve the aforementioned lack of liquidity.
Therefore, the government has given the Oil Fund to request a loan from financial institutions for the first 20,000 million baht to enhance liquidity.
which can request a total loan of 40,000 million baht, but until now still unable to request a loan
Because of the jam in the case that the oil fund does not have the status of an agency under the Ministry of Energy
As a result, financial institutions do not consider lending even though negotiations have been made since the beginning of last year.
Negotiate profit sharing
Most recently, Gen. Prayut had to pull firewood from the fire.
to solve short-term problems
Before the fire from oil prices will attack the government and lead to unexpected events like in the oil crisis in some countries before.
by calling a meeting of all relevant economic agencies
to find measures to remedy the burden of living expenses of Thai people
One of the measures that are considered to be selling clothes to survive in oil prices is
Asking for cooperation from oil traders to maintain the diesel marketing fee at 1.40 baht per liter and asking for cooperation from oil refineries in asking to submit profits from refining for 3 months during the month of July. This c.-Sept.
It is expected to be able to collect money into the oil fund at 6,000-7 billion baht per month, divided into 1. Diesel group will bring the profit difference collected per month 5,000-6 billion baht sent to the oil fund to increase liquidity for oil fund
2. Gasoline group will use the profit difference of 1,000 million baht per month to reduce the price for gasoline users 1 baht per liter starting within July.
3. Ask for cooperation with natural gas separation plants that have the cost of LPG sold as raw material in the petroleum sector with excess profits.
to pull out 50% of excess profits to put into the oil fund
Expect to get 1,500 baht per liter.
Including the government's negotiations with the refinery.
will receive a sum of 24,000 million baht to help alleviate the burden of Thai people
It is considered the last card that the government will pick up to solve the oil price problem for the next 3 months.
and asking for cooperation with the private sector to help save energy, such as turning off billboard lights and having department stores turn off the air conditioner 1 hour before closing the mall, etc.
The world faces high refining costs.
However, if you look at the facts
Problematic GRM issue
Having said that, it's something that needs to be heard on both sides, namely the government and oil refinery operators.
because it must be understood that
“Refining margin” is the revenue of the refinery before deducting expenses such as employee wages.
The investment cost for the construction of the refinery
maintenance costs, etc., which are derived from the difference between the cost of crude oil minus the price of refined refined oil.
Because refined oil that can be distilled from crude oil, there are many types of each refinery, such as gasoline, diesel, LPG, fuel oil, jet fuel, kerosene.
Therefore, the refining fee
Therefore, the refined oil price of each product must be used to find the weighted average of the country's production volume.
The proportion of total production of all refineries is diesel 46%, gasoline 20%, LPG 17%, fuel oil 9%, jet fuel 5%, while crude oil prices are averaged from 3 sources (Dubai, Oman and Tabis crude oil) due to Mainly imports of crude oil from the Middle East
.
last May
The weighted average refined oil price was 29.59 baht per liter, while the average crude oil price was 24.32 baht per liter, resulting in a refining margin of 5.27 baht per liter.
However, from the examination of the structure of the refinery cost of Thailand
The Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) also found the five-month average refining margin (Jan.-May) was at 3.27 baht per liter, although in May it was 5.20 baht per liter. up from normal conditions before the Covid-19 situation
which used to be at 2.00-2.50 baht
Importantly, this higher GRM is in line with the global GRM.
that began to rise steadily after the economy began to recover from the Covid-19 crisis.
and the Russian-Ukrainian war.
In addition, for issues that are said to be between 2020 and 2021, the average refining margin is 0.70 baht per liter and 0.89 baht per liter, respectively, which are considered lower refining margins. normal level
due to the impact of COVID-19
causing the demand for oil products to decrease
due to travel restrictions
Looking at the world, dealing with high oil prices
case of Thailand
The government needs to exert more force than ever before.
because they will sit and beat the dulcimer on the wall
Dreaming that the world crude oil price, when it rises, will decrease itself according to the same price cycle as before, it is impossible.
as many governments have prepared
and issuing energy-saving measures in various forms, both short-term and long-term
starting from Japan
Announcement to remind people to save electricity
Otherwise, a power outage may occur.
Citizens will be asked to turn off unnecessary lights and set up air conditioners at 28 degrees Celsius, and new energy efficiency standards for air conditioners have been announced, improving the standards to save 13-37%.
Philippines
Require government agencies to reduce energy consumption by 10%, France
There are incentives for large commercial buildings to reduce energy consumption during power shortages.
and adjust to use electricity during the off-peak period
Meanwhile, Spain is requiring all government officials across the country to turn on 27 degrees Celsius air conditioners in the summer.
and use a pair of fans to cool and turn on the heater at temperatures below or equal to 19 degrees Celsius in winter
As for our neighboring countries
Found that Laos has imposed measures to limit refueling in some areas, such as Khammouane Province, has measures to keep gas stations open 1-2 days / week and limit refueling 400,000 kip / time, tractor 20 liters / time.
For Thailand, despite the mention of energy-saving measures but it's just a breath There hasn't been any serious action yet.
economic team
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