European intelligence services have made an analysis that estimates that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is trying to take steps to delay secession from Russia, but also to secure concessions from the West.

The document, classified as "secret", was prepared by several agencies for the needs of the European External Action Service (EEAS), headed by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.

RFE / RL's Balkan Service has access to the document, which analyzes the next steps Vucic will take in his balancing policy.

According to European intelligence, the Russian occupation of Ukraine has created problems for Vuiqiiq in terms of balance of power, reducing Serbia's room for maneuver in the field of foreign and security policy.

What can Vucic do?

"In order to alleviate the great pressure of the West regarding the sanctions, President Vuiqiiq plans to make various moves, international and local, to prevent negative implications for Serbia, but mainly to maintain his political power," the document reads.

According to him, it is very likely that Vucic will delay the formation of the new Government of Serbia as long as possible, using it as a pretext for not imposing sanctions against Russia.

Elections in Serbia were held on April 3, while Serbia is the only country in Europe that has not taken any sanctions against Russia, due to the occupation of Ukraine.

Official Belgrade is justified in taking such a stance to "protect the vital interests of the country".

In the April elections, Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party won 120 seats in the Serbian Parliament, out of a total of 250.

At least 126 seats are needed to form the Government.

According to the EU document, Vucic is likely to pursue a "small-step policy" to bring Serbia closer to the West.

The aim is to postpone the final secession from Russia and to use the forthcoming change in the direction of foreign policy to secure as many political and economic concessions as possible for Serbia.

The role of the Serbian Orthodox Church in the event of secession from Russia

The EU document estimates that the Serbian Orthodox Church would play a key role if Serbia decides to return to the West.

It is said that Patriarch Profirije - close to the Serbian president - would play an important role in the acceptance of Serbia's pro-Western policy by the population.

"Generous state donations to the Serbian Orthodox Church will help Profirija convince the clergy in this regard," the document said.

It is added that the Church's choice not to take part in the war in Ukraine has eased the situation for Vuiqiiq, creating a certain space for him to distance himself from Russia.

Vucic benefits from the right

European intelligence services estimate that Vucic, in the coming period, will try to use the pro-Russian opposition in Parliament as an excuse for disapproval or postponement of difficult foreign policy decisions.

"Vucic is pleased with the presence of such an opposition, because it enables him to present himself to the West as a moderate politician," the document reads.

Serbia, an ally of Russia on the one hand, is also a candidate country for EU membership, on the other.

The international community has repeatedly called on it to pursue a sanctions regime against Russia.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has said there can be no European future for states that maintain contacts with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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