Briefly:

• Ukraine holds no more than three percent of its armed forces on the border with Belarus

• In peacetime, it is simply impossible to adequately assess the combat effectiveness of the army

• The number of rapid reaction units that Belarus can expose "here and now" - no more than 12 thousand people in all departments

• The army of independent Belarus has not bought a single tank

• Any confrontation between Belarus and Ukraine creates additional tension for Russia, as Russia will have to defend Belarus from Ukraine.

- In recent weeks, talks have intensified again about the possibility of Belarus entering the war, the possibility of Belarusian troops entering the territory of Ukraine.

Why do such conversations appear and is there really such a possibility?

Andrei Parotnikov

- First of all, as for the statements of Belarusian officials, they are quite peaceful, all the time the official Minsk proves that it is not going to participate in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Why do such conversations appear?

There is an element of the information war waged by Ukraine.

One of the goals of this information war is to deter official Minsk from participating in the real war.

Including in this way, throwing statements that the Belarusian army will attack Ukraine.

This is done to provoke some actions inside Belarus, which would not allow Minsk to actively participate in the war.

The Ukrainian media space is very decentralized.

There are many players with their interests and approaches, they can act independently of the Ukrainian government.

It is worth mentioning that earlier there were statements that the Belarusian army was participating in the war on the territory of Ukraine, and there were some "witnesses", "eyewitnesses" - but there were no official statements from Kiev about it.

- Can we say that Lukashenko with his militant rhetoric, pro-Russian narrative of his statements demonstrates rhetorical loyalty to Moscow and at the same time wants everything to be limited to statements?

Or maybe the task of this belligerent rhetoric is to force Ukraine to keep its forces near the southern border of Belarus, a force so necessary on the eastern front?

- According to the Belarusian military command, Ukraine keeps no more than three percent of its Armed Forces on the border with Belarus.

As for Lukashenko's belligerent statements, I think he really believes that the war in Ukraine could escalate into a large-scale regional conflict in which Belarus will not be able to maintain the status of non-participant, so to speak, non-participant in the active phase of hostilities.

It is unclear what Lukashenka's position is based on, but it does not inspire optimism.

- The Minister of Defense of Belarus Khrenin stated that a "militia" could be created in the country.

How is this different from the long-standing territorial defense?

We remember how 3-4 years ago officials came to some meetings in camouflage uniforms.

Is there something new in the current statements and processes?

- It is still unclear what is behind it, what is the "militia" and how it relates to territorial defense.

In previous years, Lukashenko equated what is commonly referred to as the "militia" with territorial defense forces.

Whether this is a continuation of the old rhetoric, or some new additional plans - is unclear.

- How can you assess the potential combat effectiveness of the Belarusian army?

Often both Belarusian and foreign experts say that out of the official number of the Belarusian army (45,000 servicemen), about 15,000-17,000 can be called combat-ready.

And what does this mean - "combat-ready parts"?

- The very understanding of "combat capability" is very complex.

This includes the level of training, weapons, logistics, staffing, but also the moral and psychological state.

And precisely because of this state in peacetime, it is simply impossible to adequately assess the combat effectiveness of the army.

We do not know how a soldier will behave in such an extreme situation as war.

The test of fighting ability is war.

- But you can assess the objective data, figures - the number of servicemen, the quality of military equipment, budget.

- Regarding the number of rapid reaction units that Belarus can expose "here and now" - it is in all departments no more than 12 thousand people.

Everything else requires a mobilization deployment, which will take more than a week or even a month to conduct.

As for the Belarusian military equipment, we do not know exactly its condition, the possibility of its operation.

On paper there may be one thing, in practice quite another.

To date, there is no objective data on the technical condition of weapons on paper in the Belarusian army.

- For example, the number of tanks in the Belarusian army is quite large for such a country.

But how many of them are in working order?

In any case, can we say that the Belarusian army has not bought, for example, new tanks for a long time?

- The army of independent Belarus has not bought a single tank since 1991.

All the tanks in service went to Belarus as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

- The leadership of Belarus often complains about the militarization of neighboring countries.

In principle, it is clear that Poland and the Baltic states are strengthening their defenses against the threat of Russian aggression.

How large are these processes?

- After 2014, all countries in the region began to seriously reconsider their plans for defense construction, to strengthen them - and within the defense alliances, and in the national dimension.

In Poland, for example, armaments until recently consisted largely of Soviet technology.

And it has already exhausted its resource, it needs to be changed.

Therefore, the new weapons are the result of the coincidence of the practical need to restore military equipment and the geopolitical situation.

As a result, in recent years there has been a serious increase in military spending in Belarus' neighbors.

- Going back to where we started the conversation.

What is your analysis and forecast on whether Belarus can join the war on the territory of Ukraine with its troops?

- The Belarusian army today is not able to wage a large-scale war against Ukraine.

And any armed confrontation between Belarus and Ukraine creates additional tension not for Ukraine but for Russia.

After all, in this case, Russia will have to defend Belarus from Ukraine.

That is why I am very skeptical about the statements that Moscow is pressuring Lukashenka to join the aggression against Ukraine.

I believe that this is an absolute speculation that works in favor of Lukashenko.

After all, she restores such an old legend about Lukashenko as the only defender of Belarus' independence from Kremlin pressure.

Moreover, I believe that there are no signs that Russia is considering the option of involving the troops of its formal allies in hostilities in Ukraine.

• Vitaly Tsygankov

  Vitaly Tsygankov graduated from the Faculty of Journalism of the Belarusian State University.

  One of the two founders of the first non-governmental news agency BelaPAN.

  He worked for the Zvyazda newspaper, was a correspondent for the Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the Associated Press in Belarus, and a columnist for the Svaboda newspaper.

  On Belarusian Freedom since 1994.

  Correspondent of Russian Freedom in Belarus.

  
  

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