Russian forces have probably abandoned the goal of large-scale encirclement of Ukrainian troops from the city of Donetsk to Izyum in favor of completing the conquest of Luhansk region.

The head of the Luhansk region's administration, Sergei Haidai, said the Russian military command probably understood that it would not be able to take over the Donetsk region, but believed it could reach the Luhansk region's administrative borders.

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This is stated in an analysis of the Institute for the Study of War.

His observations generally coincide with our analysis.

Russia's military command is likely to prioritize the battle for Severodonetsk in the future, with some efforts to focus on disrupting Ukraine's land lines (NLK) in the eastern Donetsk region.

Russian forces continue to make coordinated efforts to capture Severodonetsk from the north and south, which will lead to a shallower encirclement of Ukrainian troops than originally expected.

Russia's failed attempts to cross the Seversky Donets River near Kremenna may displace Russian encirclement operations to the east, closer to Severodonetsk via Rubizhne, instead of a wider encirclement along several axes.

Russian forces are also likely to reduce the raid on Slavyansk from Izyum, probably due to the slow pace of the offensive there.

British Ministry of Defense: The offensive in Donbass has lost momentum

Russian forces have probably exhausted the number of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian military command to bring together soldiers from many different elements, including private military companies and puppet militias, into seemingly regular army units and marines.

The Ukrainian General Staff said about 2,500 Russian reservists were being trained in the Belgorod, Voronezh and Rostov regions to step up Russian offensive operations in Ukraine.

This number of reservists is unlikely to generate enough forces to replenish Russian units, which have reportedly lost up to 20% of their personnel in some areas - not to mention the battalion tactical group, which was recently largely destroyed in an attempt to cross. Siversky Donets river.

The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate said Russian forces were conducting covert mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who were probably not trained enough to be effective and had little motivation to fight.

Russian private military companies have reportedly formed combined units with airborne elements due to significant manpower losses.

The unification of elite airborne units with mercenaries is shocking, and would be the clearest indication so far that Russia has exhausted its available reserves of combat-ready manpower.

Russia's 810th Guards Marine Brigade is reportedly receiving personnel from other parts of the Black Sea Fleet, including crew members of warships.

Thus, newly formed or regrouped units are unlikely to be effective in combat.

Russian forces are likely to strengthen the occupied settlements in southern Ukraine, indicating that the Russians are seeking to establish permanent control in the region.

Ukrainian officials say Russian forces have begun digging trenches and building concrete fortifications in unspecified areas of the Nikolaev and Kherson regions, near Melitopol and in the western part of the Zaporozhye region.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine war

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