The opposite effect: the war in Ukraine, launched by Moscow, is expected to oppose a possible NATO expansion to its borders, lead to the accession of Sweden and Finland, strengthen the Alliance's deterrence potential and significantly expand its borders with Russia. , writes AFP, quoted by BTA.

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine

For Helsinki and Stockholm, this is a small revolution: for decades, most Swedes and Finns have pursued a policy of non-alignment.

But due to the invasion of Ukraine, public opinion in the two northern countries now appears ready to take this step to try to prevent an attack by its Russian neighbor.

This would be the most significant NATO enlargement since 2004, when the Baltic states joined.

The attractiveness of collective defense

The deliberate accession is entirely justified, given Moscow's militant behavior, said Michael Shurkin, a US political analyst and former CIA official.

The poor performance of the Russian military should not lead us to believe that Europe and the United States should not worry about Moscow or that Finland and Sweden should not question their "neutrality," he said. Russia's country does not seem implausible, it is a real opportunity for which neighbors and their allies must prepare. "

Despite growing efforts to maintain significant opportunities for national defense, the two countries would be left alone in the event of Russian aggression.

But the Finns have a common border with Russia of more than 1,300 km.

Thus, from the point of view of Helsinki and Stockholm, the main attraction is that they can benefit from the protection provided by Article 5 of the Alliance Treaty (solidarity in the event of aggression), which applies to member states.

Finally, like Sweden, "with NATO, Finland will receive nuclear deterrence" by placing itself under the American umbrella, "which it cannot acquire on its own," said Charlie Salonius-Pasternak, an expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

Finland: It is clear what Russia will do if we join NATO

Reinforced northeastern flank of NATO

In fact, the two Scandinavian countries have been cooperating with NATO since 1994 in the framework of the Partnership for Peace.

They are participating in joint exercises and maneuvers and have already contributed to some NATO operations in Afghanistan or the Balkans.

"If these two countries join, it will strengthen NATO's deterrent ability in the Arctic, Baltic and northern regions," said Leo Michel, an associate researcher at the Atlantic Council's think tank.

In addition, he stressed, "Finland and Sweden would contribute their regional experience with Russia to NATO's decision-making process."

In addition, Helsinki and Stockholm would bring significant military capabilities.

Finland has only 12,000 professional soldiers in its army.

But it trains more than 20,000 recruits a year and can count on an army of 280,000 able-bodied soldiers in wartime, plus another 600,000 reservists, an extraordinary force for a European nation.

The country plans to increase its defense budget by 40% by 2026 and now has a squadron of 55 F-18 fighter jets, which it plans to replace with US F-35s, 200 tanks and more than 700 artillery weapons.

The Swedish army has about 50,000 troops.

Compulsory military service, abolished in 2010, was partially restored in 2017.

And while Sweden has sharply reduced its investment in defense over the past 30 years, it has begun to reverse the trend since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.

From another point of view, Finland's accession means hundreds of "extra kilometers of defense border. This is a burden that cannot be ignored for NATO," a European observer said.

"Finland and Sweden, sustainable democracies that are developing their defense capabilities, are a net contribution to both transatlantic and European security," said a European diplomatic source in the Alliance, who said their possible accession to NATO was a sign of "growing awareness of European States for their responsibility "in the field of defense.

Sweden is applying for NATO membership next week

The Russian invasion of Ukraine