Doctor of Political Science, head of the Belarusian Chatham House project Ryhor Astapenya

talks about the mood of the Belarusian society on the Svaboda Premium channel .

On April 8-18, the British research center Chatham House conducted an online survey of the urban population in Belarus.

This is the ninth poll conducted by this center in Belarus since September 2020.

Astapenya:

"Belarusian society is divided in relation to Russia's military action.

40% do not support these actions, 32% support them, 13% said that it is difficult for them to answer, and another 15% said that they support something in these actions and some do not.

This last answer is, in fact, also a deviation from the answer.

The estimation of these figures depends on your point of view.

Obviously, many support Russia's actions, but also many, and even more, do not support.

As for the connection of responses with socio-demographic characteristics, they depend weakly on age.

Women are more likely to evade the direct answer one way or another.

People with higher education, as well as residents of large cities are more likely not to support Russia's military action in Ukraine.

If we talk about political views, the supporters of Alexander Lukashenko more often support the actions of Russia, and opponents - more often do not support.

In our sample, a small advantage of those who do not support Russia's actions.

But since our sample represents only the urban Internet population, there is reason to believe that among the adult population as a whole there is approximate parity between the two specific positions.

And this distinguishes Belarus from Russia, where there is a huge advantage of supporters of the military operation.

You can argue there, 65% or 80% of them, but the advantage is recorded by all research centers there. "

Astapenya:

“We asked a few questions about what people expect from the war.

All the answers are, in principle, similar.

The vast majority expect negative things.

Even those who support Russia in the war understand that the war will not have positive consequences.

People expect rising prices, sanctions, lower living standards, devaluation.

This is a traditional set of Belarusians.

But quite a few people expect the war to spill over into Belarus.

We record a certain surge of "Ruskomir" sentiments.

Later, we will publish data on geopolitical preferences.

And they show that these Belarusian "Russians", of course, against Ukraine, but most of all they hate the United States.

We are recording the rise of anti-Americanism.

We see this in Russia, we have it on a smaller scale, but it is also observed.

Attitudes toward Russia, in fact, have not changed, it has deteriorated, but only slightly.

Different optics of Belarusians' view of the West and Russia.

We asked people why they choose one or another geopolitical pole - the European Union or Russia.

The main motivation for choosing Russia is a sense of cultural closeness.

Because it is their own, because the common culture, language, civilization space.

For this reason, Belarusians still have a somewhat positive attitude towards Russia.

And for those who make a choice in favor of Europe, motivations are valuable - there are human rights, democracy, prosperous life.

Astapenia:

“We asked the question: are ordinary Belarusians to blame for the hostilities against Ukraine?

And the vast majority of respondents say no.

And Belarusians believe that they do not deserve the same bad treatment as the Russians.

Lukashenka's supporters do not think they are guilty of anything: according to them, the "Bandera", Zelensky, NATO are to blame.

They believe that Russia reacted, did the right thing, and we are on the sidelines, we are a negotiating platform.

Lukashenka's opponents are more inclined to believe that Belarusians are to blame.

They have a greater sense of responsibility for the fate of the country.

But even among them there are many who believe that Belarusians are not to blame.

They believe that an ordinary Belarusian in his country cannot influence anything.

Statements by opposition leaders that Belarus is an occupied country and aimed at making our lives easier:

Astapenya:

"Compared to the previous poll, opinions about the desired role of Belarus in the war have changed slightly.

Answers involving Russia's support for the war in one form or another are collected by 35% (33% in March).

Pro-Ukrainian options are gaining 20%, and a month ago there were as many.

25% of supporters of Belarus' neutrality in the war were 23%.

A month ago, 3% said that Belarus should take part in hostilities on the side of Russia, 1% - on the side of Ukraine.

Now both of these indicators have grown, now for the Belarusian participation in the war on the side of Russia - 6%, on the side of Ukraine - 3%.

In total, the "demand for war" increased by 5 percentage points, from 4% to 9%.

Public opinion is being pumped up.

Viewers of Russian TV channels are convinced that Ukrainians are "Nazis", consumers of independent Belarusian media and Ukrainian media think about the same thing about Russians. "

Astapenya:

“24% of urban dwellers in Belarus agree with Lukashenka that if a pre-emptive strike on Ukraine had not been carried out, the Ukrainian army would have attacked Belarusian troops.

These are all Lukashenka's fans.

42% said it was difficult for them to answer.

That's a big number.

We in our circle laugh at this statement of Lukashenko.

And society as a whole - no.

People of democratic views need to explain to their compatriots how crazy these ideas are.

Contradictions are inherent in public opinion.

57% are afraid of getting involved in the war, 11% believe that Belarus will be involved in the war.

Belarusians in the answers to the polls are willing to blame Russia, they say, we are not to blame, it's all of them.

And such approaches exist on different sides of the political spectrum.

Lukashenka's supporters say: Russia is at war, we have nothing to do here, we stand aside and smoke.

Proponents of the protest have a feeling that Russia is pulling us into this vortex. "

Astapenya:

"The answer to the question of what you will do if Belarus is involved in the war, is to stock up on food and continue a normal life.

Belarusians have no feeling that this is their war.

If this is not your war, then you really need to buy food.

7% and 9% said they were ready to join the Belarusian army and support its actions in every possible way.

These figures are much lower than the number of supporters of Lukashenko and the "Russian world".

Belarusian commitment to the "Russian world" is rarely accompanied by a willingness to take any action for the sake of these beliefs. "

Astapenya:

“23% of respondents say that if the Belarusian army was sent to the war in Ukraine, the army would follow orders.

Other answers are about different ways to evade the order.

The answers showed that the Belarusians have no idea what exactly the Belarusian military will do if they are ordered to go to war with the Ukrainians.

But most people think that if the military is sent to the front line, they will try to evade hostilities. "