The majority of public opinion in Taiwan wants to "remove the DPP", but as the 2024 general election approaches, the "Tsai Ing-wen line" has become popular overnight? In an exclusive interview a few days ago, the People's Party's presidential candidate Ke Wenzhe said that "he will maintain Tsai Ing-wen's diplomatic line and express goodwill on both sides of the strait"; Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Qingde said earlier that he would continue Tsai Ing-wen's line, maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific, and avoid the election of a pro-China regime that threatens democracy. This made the outgoing Tsai Ing-wen extremely excited, and on December 12, she shouted during the election: "If you want to take the Tsai Ing-wen route, the best partners must be Lai Qingde and Xiao Meiqin."

Tsai Ing-wen route without Tsai Ing-wen"

The Kuomintang (KMT), which set the tone early in the 2024 general election, has joined the "competition for favor" contest of Tsai Ing-wen's line. Hou Youyi's deputy, Zhao Shaokang, attended a youth forum at Taichung No. 12 Middle School on December 9, and in addition to emphasizing that "cross-strait peace is the only answer", he also stated that "peace is not reunification, and there is no inevitable relationship between the two"; He also declared that if "Hou Kangpei" is elected, he will definitely demand to the mainland that PLA planes should not cross the center line of the strait and that warships should not circle Taiwan, and even demanded that the mainland's coastal missiles against Taiwan be reduced, and that "in the future, we will manufacture a large number of missiles and build as many missiles as we can." If the mainland strikes us, we can also strike at you.

Zhao Shaokang himself was very excited about the "three-hour no cold scene" with the younger siblings of his alma mater, and the questions from the young students were "straight balls and answers". According to the real-time questionnaire conducted by the organizers, the proportion of respondents who supported "Hou Kangpei" jumped from 42.2% to 62.2% after participating in the event. However, what Zhao Shaokang did not realize was that his statement on the cross-strait line was actually a "Tsai Ing-wen line" without the word "Tsai Ing-wen."

On the evening of 12 December, Zhao Shaokang attended a youth forum at Taichung No. 9 Middle School, during which he pointed out that of course he hopes for peace, but he can only choose peace, and there is no way to choose war, and besides, peace and war are not a choice question, but peace is the only answer, and peace is not unified, and there is no inevitable relationship between the two. (Courtesy of Zhao Shaokang's office)

What is the Tsai Ing-wen route? In the 2023 Double Ten speech, she said that "peace is the only option for both sides of the strait", which coincides with Zhao Shaokang's statement? In the same speech, Tsai Ing-wen also stated that she would "maintain the status quo", which means rejecting reunification and opposing "one country, two systems", which can be said to be similar to Zhao Shaokang's statement that "peace and reunification have no necessary relationship".

In addition, the Tsai Ing-wen government's "one-sided" pro-US line insisted on inviting former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (Nancy Pelosi) to visit Taiwan, causing huge military turmoil in the Taiwan Strait and Sino-US politics.

Don't forget, in terms of military policy, the Tsai Ing-wen government on the one hand strongly advocates "Taiwan ships built in Taiwan", and Tsai Ing-wen also personally attended the naming and launching ceremony of the "Haikun Warship", saying that "history will always remember this day". On the other hand, Zhang Jian welcomed the Joe Biden administration's various arms sales to Taiwan and the reform of the military service system, and the United States sold Taiwan's volcanic minelaying system for the first time, which will be deployed on Taiwan's western coastline, claiming that such a move will "annihilate the enemy on the beach"; There are also some retired high-ranking politicians in the United States who advocate that Taiwan's police stations should be equipped with Stinger missiles and that everyone should learn to use AK47 rifles. Not to mention the extension of the period of men's service in Taiwan from four months to one year, there is also the shadow of the United States threading the needle behind it.

On September 2023, 9, Tsai Ing-wen presided over the naming and launching ceremony of the submarine prototype built in Taiwan. (Taiwan Presidential Office)

Mistakenly taking the route of "harming Taiwan" as a "protecting Taiwan" rune

To put it bluntly, the military thinking that the US "foreign monks" have sold to Taiwan is that after seeing Ukraine's experience, they are determined to replicate it in Taiwan, thus advocating "asymmetric warfare" of "fighting big with small". This set of strategic tactics is not so much the "Tsai Ing-wen line" as the "American line", so it is widely recognized by the blue-green and different color positions in Taiwan, including the naval commander Li Ximing in the Ma Ying-jeou era, who published the book "Taiwan's Odds of Winning" after retiring from the army, and gave speeches advocating "asymmetric warfare" everywhere.

The real intention of the United States is to turn Taiwan into a battlefield sacrificed for it to block China's rise, but in Taiwan's political circles, which have different pro-US ideologies, they have vigorously promoted the US policy of "harming Taiwan" as a policy of "protecting Taiwan." What is the difference between the Kuomintang Zhao Shaokang's plan of "building a large number of missiles" and the plan of "striking each other" between the two sides of the strait and the "Tsai Ing-wen line" in the shadow of the United States?

The Taiwanese people do not want war, so they both talk about "peace", but no one can say who the enemy of "peace" is, and they will only populist the "anti-China" mobilization, believing that "reunification" will inevitably bring "war". As a matter of fact, these are all arguments about "reverse effect as cause", why did the mainland's PLA planes and ships circle Taiwan and cross the "median line of the Taiwan Strait"? The real reason is that the Tsai Ing-wen government has followed the line of "Taiwan independence", echoing the United States and hollowing out the "one China" framework, so Chinese mainland must respond with military preparations to Taiwan and the United States has crossed the red line of "Taiwan independence".

Tsai Ing-wen (second from left) on November 11 Tsai Ing-wen inspected Taiwan's "Compulsory Service Recruit Training and Training". (Taiwan Presidential Office)

A senior informed person on both sides of the Taiwan Strait privately said that the key to cross-strait peace lies in not being independent, and in reality it is impossible to be independent, so why do we need to build more missiles? What's more, no amount of missiles can stop it, if the other side really wants to use force." He criticized Zhao Shaokang for unwittingly falling into the same trap of 'seeking independence by force' as the green government.

Just as this informed source said, Taiwan needs to engage in an "arms race" with the mainland only if it wants to "seek independence," but the question is, does Taiwan have the capital to win or lose militarily with the mainland? Zhao Shaokang claimed that he would "build a large number of missiles", but the PLA's "encirclement of Taiwan" military exercise after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has proved that if the mainland wants to "reunify" Taiwan by force, it does not even need to use missiles, and the maximum range of long-range rocket artillery alone has reached 480 to 500 kilometers, "enough to sprinkle a 'rain of bullets' in the eastern region of Taiwan."

If Taiwan's biggest consensus is peace and no war, the simplest and most direct way is not independence. Beijing has not already shown its cards, and 'Taiwan independence' means war. Under the guise of "peace", the "Tsai Ing-wen line" is nothing more than parasitic on the system of the Constitution of the Republic of China, practicing the "two-state theory" of "non-subordination to each other" between the two sides of the strait, making the Taiwan Strait the "most dangerous place on the surface" in the eyes of the Western mainstream media.

On December 12, Kuomintang presidential candidate Hou Youyi gave an exclusive interview to NBC, saying, "We will continue to strengthen our national defense preparedness, that is, to maintain the strength of deterrence, and in accordance with the Constitution of the Republic of China, on the basis of the past between the two sides of the strait, gradually resume various forms of dialogue, including the official one, so that the two sides of the strait can continue to interact on functional issues, reduce risks, and thus reduce hostility." (Courtesy of Hou Youyi's campaign office)

Go back to the 92 consensus, why populist and muddy

The KMT's slump over the past few years lies in its cowardly and kitsch character of "taking incense and worshiping," and it does not dare to make it clear to the public that the crux of the critical situation in the Taiwan Strait lies in "Taiwan independence," nor does it dare to explicitly say whether "Taiwan independence" is impossible or infeasible. There are also high-ranking KMT officials, who have gone on a "peace tour" to the mainland on the one hand, and on the other hand, they have ignored the provisions of the party's "Party Constitution" and talked about the KMT on talk shows that it is not a "reunified" and "pro-China" party.

Since Hou Youyi and Zhao Shaokang have advocated that they will regain the "92 Consensus" after coming to power, it means that the two sides of the strait have restored the cornerstone of political mutual trust, so there is room for communication, dialogue, and negotiation, and "peace" will not be just empty words, so why worry about the PLA planes and ships appearing around the Taiwan Strait from time to time? It is precisely because the "Tsai Ing-wen line" rejects the "92 Consensus" and freezes cross-strait politics to the bottom, and it "armes" Taiwan together with the United States to deny "one China" and moves towards "two countries", that the smell of smoke and gunpowder in the Taiwan Strait will become stronger and stronger.

The Kuomintang has already shouted the slogan of voting for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and young people going to war, and it agrees that the 2024 election is a choice between war and peace.

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