The turning point of the 2024 Taiwan election occurred in the tripartite talks between Hou Youyi, Ke Wenzhe, and Guo Taiming at the Grand Hyatt Hotel on the evening of November 11, and the blue and white combination had a chemical effect after breaking the game, especially the next day (23) Hou Youyi officially launched his deputy Zhao Shaokang, and the original wandering and disappointed Kuomintang supporters quickly "returned to the team". And Ke Wenzhe of the People's Party was exposed in front of the camera because of his vacillating and fickle personality, and his support continued to decline.


Ke Wenzhe is cautious about the flow of young votes to Lai Qingde

According to various polls, Ke Wenzhe, who was originally ranked second, has now fallen to the third, with a support rate of about 15% to 20%. In order to prevent further marginalization and even bubbles, and knowing that the original light blue supporters have returned to the KMT, Ke Wenzhe's camp has recently adjusted its discourse to grab green votes.

Ke Wenzhe recently accepted an exclusive interview with Taiwan media China Television News, and his words were amazing, saying that his inner essence is still "dark green", "there is a chance to make Taiwan a normal country", and said that "he will maintain Tsai Ing-wen's diplomatic line and express goodwill on both sides of the strait". Ke's purpose in this remark is clear, which is to cut the "green" spectrum from the DPP, and attract voters who "hate the DPP" but agree with the "green" ideology and Tsai Ing-wen's line.

Ke Wenzhe said that "the essence of my heart is still dark green" and advocated that "military diplomacy should maintain Tsai Ing-wen's line". The picture shows Ke Wenzhe holding a press conference on agricultural policy on December 12. (Courtesy of Ke Wenzhe's campaign office)

In the eyes of the DPP, you may feel that Ke Wenzhe's move is not pleasing to both sides, because those who support the green camp and agree with Tsai Ing-wen should vote for Ke Wenzhe, as long as they continue to vote for the DPP. However, Ke Wenzhe's move is bound to be carefully calculated, and the goal is to accurately capture the "young votes".

At a time when the People's Party is in an avalanche of support, the most die-hard supporters are the young people. Taiwan's young people are disgusted with the KMT's old-fashioned dragon Chung, and they do not necessarily like Lai Qingde, who is not as attractive as Tsai Ing-wen, so Ke Wenzhe's "not blue, not green" and "blue and green" line has just become the object of hope for young people, even if Ke may not win the election, but supporting Ke is tantamount to expressing their dissatisfaction with the blue-green monopoly of Taiwan's political discourse.

Further analysis, Taiwan's young people are no longer as "Taiwan independence" as the "Sunflower" generation, and it may be more appropriate to describe them as "Taiwanese", asserting that they are "Taiwanese" rather than "Chinese", and there is a strong atomized individualism. Therefore, Lai Qingde and Xiao Meiqin, who have a heavier spectrum of Taiwan independence, may not be able to win the hearts of young people in Taiwan. And Ko Wenzhe's self-confession that his essence is "dark green" and his advocacy of maintaining Tsai Ing-wen's "diplomatic line" is obviously to capture the hearts of young supporters and prevent them from sending votes to the DPP because of the decline in support of the People's Party.

Lai Ching-tak's campaign headquarters launched the "Quite Virtue · Q version of the cat and dog badge", the badge has an image of a Taiwanese black dog drawn by the designer symbolizing Lai Qingde's "dog pie", and a cat portrait representing the Taiwanese war cat Xiao Meiqin's "cat pie". (Courtesy of Lai Ching-tak's campaign office)

The three camps are working hard to "fight the young votes"

In the past, there has always been a saying that "Taiwan in the decisive battle" has always been said in large-scale elections in Taiwan, because the pattern of "blue in the north and green in the south" is a tie, and whoever wins the majority of votes in Taiwan will win. However, this formula is no longer as applicable in the new era as it was in the past, and although "land warfare" (organizational warfare) has a certain importance, the effect of "air warfare" (propaganda warfare) is becoming more and more prominent.

Young people's turnout has always been low, and which camp is willing to go out and vote for it through propaganda may be one of the key decisive points in this election. According to Taiwan's "Central Election Committee", there are 2024.102 million "first-time voters" in the 8 general election, and according to the latest poll support of Taiwan's "Beautiful Island Electronic News", the gap between the elected person and the second place in the voting results may only be 3% to 5%, that is, about 40,70 to 103,<> votes, so nearly <>.<> million "first-time voters" have become a "key minority". In other words, it is not only necessary to "fight a decisive battle against Taiwan" but also to "fight a decisive battle against young people."

Because of this, Ke Wenzhe's "dark green" self-dissection and inheritance of Tsai Ing-wen's diplomatic line can be seen to consolidate his intention to consolidate his young vote advantage. On the Kuomintang side, it is obviously unwise to "go head-to-head" with young people ideologically, so Hou Youyi's camp locked on the issue of "housing justice" and held a press conference on the youth housing purchase policy on December 12, proposing the "8 Plan", allowing young first-time buyers under the age of 555 to enjoy a full down payment loan of NT$40 million, an interest subsidy of 1.500%, and an interest discount for 0 years.

Kuomintang presidential candidate Hou Youyi held a press conference on December 12 with the release of the policy of "Young Hou Kang Loan Waiver for Housing Purchase". (Courtesy of Hou Youyi's campaign office)

On the DPP's side, looking back at the lessons of the 2022 nine-in-one general election, one of them was the defeat of the young people's backlash against the ruling party, which severely undermined the DPP's election results. In order to make up for this shortcoming, Lai Qingde found Xiao Meiqin's partner, and used Xiao Meiqin's "cat-loving" image to hype up, shouting the slogan "Choose the right person, go the right way", hoping to copy Xiao Meiqin as another Tsai Ing-wen, so as to attract young votes. In addition, it can also be seen in the near future that youth groups close to the DPP on the political spectrum have begun to operate the "Homecoming Train Fundraising Program", which is actually to mobilize young people who support "Lai Xiaopei" to return to their hometowns to vote, so as to achieve "votes in the queue" on the youth ballot.

The three camps are all trying their best to win the support of Taiwan's young people, which shows that the rejection of young people's votes is an indispensable key to the decisive victory in this general election. The only advantage of Ke Wenzhe's camp is the support of young people, and he will try his best to make them more loyal in this field. As long as Lai Qingde's camp can dig out some young votes from Ke Ying, it may allow Lai Xiaopei's current leading position to get "insurance votes". As for Hou Youyi's camp, the first thing must be to stick to the basic market of 500 million yuan, and then start to put forward appealing and credible political views in the DPP's disappointing places for young people, such as fear of going to war, low salaries for young people, and inability to buy houses.

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