The concern is not only related to the race between extending the truce or continuing the fighting, but also about the impact of the prospects for expanding the southern front, especially in light of the continuous collapse of security, financial and legislative institutions after the paralysis of the executive authority. The closest entitlement to the vacuum that carries the danger indicators lies in the impossibility of reaching the expected vacancy in the leadership of the Lebanese army next month after the end of the term of the current commander, General Joseph Aoun, and the intensification of differences between the pillars of the political class in terms of extending the commander or appointing a replacement for him in the absence of a president of the republic, both in violation of the Lebanese constitution.
The state in Lebanon is slowly decaying, and Hezbollah is acting alone in filling the will of the reluctant axis, after a coup against the democratic system, paralyzing the House of Representatives and preventing the election of a president of the republic in accordance with the constitution. After the overthrow of Resolution 1701 and the opening of the southern front to support Hamas.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not mind opening new fronts, to justify his crimes under the pretext of targeting the security of his state in the north and south, attracting more international support and fleeing forward by continuing the absurd war that he insists on continuing.
Unfortunately, the international grace period is still granted to Netanyahu, despite a wide popular situation in the international community rejecting the massacres he is committing and condemning his genocide of the Palestinian people, even without sympathy for Hamas, Hezbollah or any armed arm of the resistance axis.
It is clear that he continues to threaten, threaten and insist on his senseless war on civilians, and refuses to go to a negotiating table that presents a serious search for a lasting solution to the tragedy of the Palestinian people.
On the other hand, it is not clear the prospects for the skirmishes of Hezbollah and Palestinian factions on the southern border according to the "rules of engagement" until the present moment, and the extent of their actual ability to deter Israeli attacks against civilians.
The current truce is not the result of the field and the victories of Hamas, as the reluctants say, but has been imposed by many voices in Israel calling for Netanyahu's immediate resignation, not because of the children of Gaza, but because of the Israeli hostages.
While some believe that the deal will remain a loss by all standards, if the results of the "Al-Aqsa flood" are limited to the exchange of prisoners and detainees between the Israeli entity and Hamas, compared to the subsequent losses in the Gaza Strip and its people or in Lebanon and its south, but the head of the axis that resists the claim of victory also has its calculations, the most important of which is not related to the liberation of Jerusalem, but rather the provisions of control over its stadium from Baghdad to Beirut, passing through Damascus and Sana'a, in addition to the confiscation of the Palestinian cause, in which work is proceeding in full swing to end the organization Palestinian liberation, the Fatah situation, and the dedication of fundamentalist organizations to inherit the cause according to its terms and specifications. The "Gaza war" contributes to its stakes.
Of course, the tragedy of the Lebanese lies in these calculations. It will remain the same as long as the priorities of the head of the resistance require the use of the Lebanese card more sharply with the pivotal and anticipated regional developments and changes.
Regardless of the extension of the truce, or Netanyahu's continuation of his absurd war in the hope of achieving its goals in terms of eliminating Hamas, "returning the kidnapped, and making sure that Gaza does not pose a threat to Israel", the Lebanese are exacerbated by their loss of the international legitimacy card due to the strike on Resolution 1701, to increase their accumulated losses since Lebanon became the playground of resistance and a prisoner of its axis.