On November 11, Taiwan's representative to the United States, Hsiao Mei-qin, reported to Taiwan's Foreign Minister Wu Zhao-sup and formally resigned, at the same time, Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Lai Ching-te posted on Facebook to praise Hsiao Mei-qin's diplomatic performance in the United States, saying that the other party is definitely the best in Taiwan's diplomatic work today, and announced that it will officially announce in the afternoon that Hsiao Mei-qin will be invited to be his running mate in the 20 presidential election, Lai Ching-te said, "I believe that this is the decision that everyone is looking forward to, and it is also the best decision."

Hsiao Mei-qin resigned as Taiwan's representative to the United States. (Official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan)

Lai Qingde's election of Xiao Meiqin as his deputy was expected by various analyses, and it was completely out of political considerations.

From the perspective of Lai Qingde's needs, there are two main reasons why Xiao Meiqin was chosen instead of others as partners, one is that Xiao Meiqin and Tsai Ing-wen are girlfriends, and choosing Xiao is conducive to improving the relationship with the current President Tsai Ing-wen and winning the support of the British faction; Second, Hsiao Mei-qin is very well-connected in the United States and has won the trust of the United States, and she herself is of mixed Taiwan-American descent, and the United States' biggest misgivings about Lai Ching-te are that he has too strong Taiwan independence colors, and there is no confidence in whether he will be able to properly handle cross-strait relations after he is elected, and whether he will drag the United States into the water, and the election of Hsiao Mei-qin is conducive to dispelling the misgivings of the United States and winning the votes of the pro-US faction on the island of Taiwan.

Therefore, from the perspective of election needs, it is indeed Lai Qingde's best decision to form Lai Xiao with Xiao Meiqin.

However, Lai Qingde's best decision is the worst decision in terms of cross-strait relations and peace in the Taiwan Strait.

Lai Ching-te is known as the "golden grandson of Taiwan independence" and a self-proclaimed "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker"; since he joined the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and entered politics, he has never concealed his desire for Taiwan independence, and he is also a gambler who dares to put his ideas into action, which is already a risk to cross-strait relations and peace in the Taiwan Strait.

Xiao Meiqin is even better. Xiao Meiqin is the first Taiwan independence diehard to be named twice by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and sanctioned. In August 2022, Xiao Meiqin and 8 others were included in the list of "Taiwan independence diehards" by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council for sanctions. In April 7, the spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee was authorized to announce further sanctions against Xiao Meiqin.

Hsiao Mei-chin: Taiwan's representative to the United States, Hsiao Mei-chin, attends President Joe Biden's inauguration ceremony in Washington, D.C., on January 1. (Taiwan in the US Facebook)

Imagine if a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker" and a sanctioned "Taiwan independence diehard" form a "double independence group" to join hands in Taiwan, what will it mean for cross-strait relations and the situation in the Taiwan Strait?

Because the balance of strength between the two sides of the strait has long been completely tilted in favor of the mainland, and the mainland has the full ability to deal a devastating blow to Taiwan independence, including completing reunification by force, it is believed that even if Lai Qingde and Hsiao Meiqin are elected, they will not dare to abolish the name of the "Republic of China" and will not declare independence and statehood.

However, they will certainly step up their efforts to de-Sinicize Taiwan in all aspects of Taiwan's political and social life, further advance toward substantive Taiwan independence, interact more closely with international Taiwan independence forces, create the illusion of "one China, one Taiwan" in the international community, and even expand the introduction of US troops, and resist reunification by force through expanding arms purchases, weapons research and development and upgrading, and reforming the military service law.

If these acts that lead Taiwan to permanent secession touch some of the bottom lines of China's anti-national separatist law, or endanger China's core interests, will Chinese mainland use force or not? If force is used, what will it mean for both sides of the Taiwan Strait, especially for the 2300 million people in Taiwan?

Therefore, although the DPP has put forward the "best decision" of "Lai Hsiao-pei," the choice of peace or war is still in the hands of the Taiwan people, and it is up to the Taiwanese themselves to choose "Lai Hsiao-pei" or other combinations.

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