According to the latest figures from the Immigration Department, the number of Hong Kong people going north exceeded 7.468 million in July, an increase of 6,21 compared with June. Referring to the early statistics of the Census and Statistics Department, the average spending of Hong Kong people on travel in the Mainland was about MOP860, and that of Guangdong Province, including Shenzhen, was about MOP680, and if the old figures were extrapolated, the amount spent on the Mainland in July was as high as MOP7.32 billion to MOP40 billion.
Some economists believe that it is difficult for Hong Kong people to stay in Hong Kong to spend at present, and consumption in the north will continue to develop, or Hong Kong will experience a long period of adjustment, until restaurants close, shops are vacant for a long time, rent reductions, etc., so that consumers feel that the level of expenditure in the north is similar, there will be a chance to reverse.
Scholars also mentioned that the mainland's current economic downturn, the RMB exchange rate has fallen, mainland visitors are not as proud as before, and many products have been purchased in the mainland, Hong Kong's attractiveness has decreased, and retail sales are expected to be difficult to return to the previous level by the end of this year.
▼Hong Kong people go north to consume▼
According to figures from the Immigration Department, excluding departures via the airport, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, the Cruise Terminal and the Hong Kong-Macau Ferry Terminal in June this year, 6,4,472 Hong Kong people went north.
In July, the number of people in the port of Beijing was equivalent to 7 East Railway Nine Trucks
From 7 July to 1 July, there were 7,29,4 person-times, up by 685,471 month-on-month, up by 21.4%, with an average of 76,7 passengers travelling northward per day in July, which is equivalent to 16 nine-truck trains per day.
According to the Census and Statistics Department, in a feature article entitled "Social and Economic Characteristics and Consumption Expenditure of Hong Kong Residents Travelling to Chinese mainland for Private Travel in 2015" published in November 11, the Statistics Department pointed out that in 2014, the average consumption expenditure of Hong Kong people on private travel to the Mainland, excluding cross-boundary transport service costs, was about MOP2014 per person, while the average consumption expenditure per trip to Guangdong Province (including Shenzhen) was about MOP860.
It is calculated that excluding inflation, based on the figure of 468.860 million trips to the north this month, the per capita consumption of Hong Kong people in the north is 40 yuan, and the total consumption is as high as 680 billion yuan; For example, Hong Kong people spend $32 per capita in Guangdong Province, which also has a total consumption of about $<>.<> billion.
From June to July, net departures ranged from 6.7 million to 192.231 million
As for Mainland visitors, more than 7.275 million people came south through the control points in July, up by 6,215 or 60% from 28.6 million in June. It can be seen that in June and July, the number of Hong Kong people going north was higher than the number of mainland visitors going south, with a "net departure" of about 7.192 million to 231.<> million, a long way off.
Li Siu-bo, Honorary Teaching and Research Scholar of the Asia-Pacific Institute of Business at CUHK Business School, believes that the momentum of Hong Kong people's consumption in the north will continue to develop, and continue to take weekend dining as an example, many Hong Kong restaurants are limited, the space in the store is more crowded, compared with the mainland, the store environment is good, the price is far cheaper than Hong Kong, and some friends with high spending power around him feel that spending in Hong Kong is "not enough" and choose to go north.
Scholar: It's "so difficult" to stay in Hong Kong to spend in Hong Kong
He bluntly said that "Hong Kong (at present) has no room for help", and it is "difficult" to stay in Hong Kong to spend in Hong Kong, believing that the trend of consumption in the north may have to wait until Hong Kong goes through a long "adjustment period", until restaurants are closed, shops are not rented, rents are to be reduced, and prices continue to be significantly reduced, or even at a level similar to consumption in the north.
He also pointed out that the above calculation method is reasonable, although it does not take inflation into account, it can still be used as a reference for Hong Kong people going north. He also said that it has been observed that if Hong Kong people travel back and forth to the mainland on the same day to eat meals and massages, the expected consumption has reached 500 yuan, and if the number of Hong Kong people going north in July is extrapolated, the total consumption is also about 7.23 billion yuan.
Li Siu-bo, Honorary Teaching and Research Scholar of the Asia-Pacific Institute of Business at CUHK Business School
Referring to the return of tourists to the south after customs clearance, Li Zhaobo pointed out that the mainland's current economic downturn, the RMB exchange rate has fallen, and the consumption of mainlanders in Hong Kong is also different from before. He added that in the past, Mainlanders used to come to Hong Kong to consume, but now that many products have been purchased in the Mainland, Hong Kong's attractiveness has diminished, they may not consider shopping in Hong Kong, and retail sales by the end of the year are expected to be difficult to return to the previous level.
Hong Kong used to focus too much on shopping, and its role has become blurred
He pointed out that Hong Kong used to focus too much on shopping, but when tourists can buy the products they want in the mainland or elsewhere, Hong Kong's role will become very blurred, such as Hong Kong now wants to attract more tourists, it needs to provide more authentic experiences, "tourists want authentic experiences." What the hell is Hong Kong doing? I tell Hong Kong to return to a good positioning." He made a number of suggestions, such as preserving colonial buildings and fishing villages, and attracting visitors to Hong Kong through Hong Kong's history and local characteristics.
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