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We asked these questions to the following experts (their current statuses are given):
director of research at the Center for New Ideas, Dr. of Political Sciences
Ryhor Astapeny,
political commentator
Dmitrii Balkunts,
Researcher of the Free University of Berlin, Doctor of Political Sciences
Serhiy Bohdan,
Director of the Center for Political Analysis and Forecast, Doctor of Political Sciences
Paul Vusav,
Alena Kudzko,
director of the international analytical center GLOBSEC Policy Institute ,
to Radio Svaboda political commentator
Valer Karbalevich,
to the political commentator of the "Pozirk" project
, Alexander Klaskovskiy,
political analyst and consultant, coordinator of the expert network "Our Opinion", Doctor of Cultural
Studies Vadim Mazheik,
to the senior researcher of the Center of New Ideas, former diplomat
Pavlo Matsukevich,
to the expert of the European Council of International Relations, former diplomat
Paul Slyunkin,
political scientist, expert of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future
Ihar Tyshkevich,
to Radio Svaboda political commentator Vitaly Tsygankov,
political scientist, researcher of the City University of Manchester
, Tatyana Chulitskaya,
political scientist, researcher of critical geopolitics, doctoral student of the Virginia Technological University K.
Ekaterina Shmatina,
to political analyst
Artyom Shreibman.
Correct answers
1. What will be the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar at the end of the year?
As of December 31, 2021, the official dollar exchange rate according to the NBB was 2.54 rubles.
As of December 23, 2022, it was 2.69 rubles per dollar.
Valer Karbalevich and Alexander Klaskovsky predicted the ruble rate at the end of the year more accurately than others (2.75).
Close to accurate forecasts were given by another 6 experts - from 2.5 to 2.9.
The range of experts' predictions was 2.5 to 5.
2. Who will be the Prime Minister of Belarus in December 2022?
In December 2022, Roman Golovchenko, who was appointed to this position in June 2020, remained the head of the government of Belarus.
Golovchenko is the 10th Prime Minister of Belarus since the country gained independence.
He has already held this position longer than three of his predecessors — Mikhail Chigir, Vladimir Yarmoshyn, and Siarhei Rumas.
Roman Golovchenko
10 out of 15 experts correctly predicted that Golovchenko will retain her position during the year.
5 experts believed that if the political course is maintained, Natalya Kachanova, Mikalai Snapkov, Dmitri Kruty, or Viktor Khrenin can become the prime minister, in case of a drastic change in state policy, Siarhei Rumas, Kiril Rudy, Pavel Latushka, or Valer Tsapkala can become the prime minister.
3. What will be the official results of the referendum on the new Constitution: turnout, votes "for", votes "against", the number of invalid ballots?
According to the data of the Central Election Commission, the turnout at the 2022 referendum was 78.6%, 82.8% of those who took part in voting voted "for", 12.7% - "against", 4.3% of the ballots were invalid.
Alexander Lukashenko votes in the constitutional referendum, February 27, 2022
7 experts predicted the turnout quite accurately (from 78% to 80%), the share of "for" votes was predicted more accurately than all (82%) by Alexander Klaskovsky.
His rating turned out to be the highest, everyone else predicted that there would be fewer "yes" votes.
The share of "against" votes was most accurately predicted by Vitaliy Tsygankov (12%), all the others assumed that there would be significantly more "against" votes.
Forecasts of 8 experts regarding the share of invalid ballots were between 2% and 7%, and the most accurate (5%) forecast was given by Ryhor Astapenia.
4. Will there be mass protests in Belarus in 2022?
There were no such massive and long-lasting protests as in 2020, in 2022.
There were quite large anti-war protests on the day of the constitutional referendum on February 27.
More than 900 people were detained for participating in these protests.
12 experts said that there will be no mass protests in 2022, Alena Kudzko noted that they might happen if the war starts in the region.
Alexander Klaskovsky wrote that there may be protests, but not as crowded as in 2020.
5. How many political prisoners will there be in Belarus at the end of 2022?
According to the human rights community, as of December 30, 2021, there were 970 political prisoners in Belarus.
As of December 26, 2022, there were 1,441 political prisoners in Belarus, according to human rights community estimates.
The most accurate was the forecast of Kateryna Shmatina (1400), the next most accurate were the forecasts of Valero Karbalevich, Vadim Mazheyka and Pavlo Sliunkin (1500).
Only one expert predicted that the number of political prisoners by the end of 2022 will be 3 thousand people.
The remaining 10 experts predicted the number of political prisoners to be less than 1,440.
6. Will the migration crisis on the border between Belarus and the EU countries end in 2022?
To some extent, the migration crisis in 2022 is over.
Dozens of migrants from Asia, who in 2022 tried to illegally cross the border of Belarus with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia every day, ceased to be a political problem.
The vast majority of experts (13 out of 15) rightly predicted that the migration crisis will end this year.
7. How many packages of sanctions will the European Union accept regarding Belarus during 2022?
During the year, the European Union extended sanctions against Belarus 6 times.
Of these, 5 rounds were related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the participation of Belarus in this aggression.
On February 18, 2022,
extended financial sanctions against the Development Bank and the Dobrabyt Bank.
On February 27, 2022,
in connection with Russia's war with Ukraine, the sanctions list was renewed, which includes individuals and legal entities from Russia and Belarus (670 items).
On March 2, 2022, the
European Union introduced targeted restrictive measures against 22 high-ranking Belarusian military personnel.
In addition, restrictions have been introduced on trade in Belarusian goods used for the production of tobacco products, mineral fuel, bituminous substances and gaseous hydrocarbon products, potash products, products made of wood, cement, iron and steel, and rubber products.
On March 9, 2022, the
European Union introduced new sanctions regarding the financial sector of Belarus, in particular, the disconnection of three Belarusian banks from SWIFT.
These are Belagroprombank, Dobrabyt Bank and Development Bank.
On April 8, 2022
, a ban was introduced for Belarusian motor carriers to transport goods by road through the territory of the European Union, including transit.
On June 2, 2022
, a package of sanctions was approved, which provided for the disconnection of the Belarusian bank "Belinvestbank" from the SWIFT international payment system.
Also, the EU sanctions package included restrictions against 12 citizens of Belarus and 8 enterprises, including "Belaruskali" and its trader Belarusian Potash Company, "Naftan" Refinery, Horaden Tobacco Factory "Neoman", "Inter Tabaka", producer of utility vehicles "Belkamunmash". , logistics operator "Belmytservice" and Belteleradiocompany.
During 2022, a number of EU countries adopted their sovereign sanctions against Belarus, which are tougher than the general sanctions of the Union.
9 experts assumed that in 2022 the European Union will introduce two packages of sanctions against Belarus, Tatiana Chulitskaya predicted that there will be three packages of sanctions, the rest assumed that there will be no new sanctions, or there will be only one package.
8. Will someone from the leadership of the European Union or the USA call Lukashenka?
On February 26, 2022, at the beginning of Russia's full-scale war with Ukraine, on the initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron, he had a telephone conversation with Alexander Lukashenko.
11 experts predicted that within a year one of the heads of the European Union or the United States will call Lukashenka to solve acute problems affecting both the European Union and Belarus.
9. Will Russian investors sell significant stakes in large Belarusian enterprises?
During the year, there were no sales of shares of Belarusian companies to Russian investors.
Mazyr Refinery
Half of the surveyed experts (8 out of 15) correctly predicted that the sale of large blocks of shares of Belarusian enterprises will not take place this year.
In previous years, the proportion of such responses was much higher.
10. Will there be Russian military bases in Belarus?
In 2022, Russia used the territory of Belarus to deploy its troops and military equipment to wage war against Ukraine.
According to NATO data, up to 30,000 Russian soldiers were deployed to Belarus for the February exercise "Allied Resolve".
On February 24, they participated in the attack on Ukraine.
In April, the majority of Russian troops were withdrawn from the territory of Belarus, about a thousand Russian soldiers remained.
In October, within the framework of the formation of the Regional Grouping of the Forces of Belarus and Russia, several thousand Russian soldiers were relocated to Belarus again - up to 9 thousand.
At the end of the year, they underwent training at Belarusian training grounds.
Since February 24, Russian aviation and missile forces have regularly attacked Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.
Belarusian-Russian combat training centers for pilots and air defense forces operated in Belarus.
However, a permanent Russian military base with an official status was not created in Belarus.
Two-thirds of experts predicted that the Russian military base will not appear in Belarus this year.
Ryhor Astapenia, Siarhei Bohdan and Kateryna Shmatina answered that the Belarusian-Russian combat training centers were created even earlier, and they are actually military bases, Alena Kudzko predicted that in 2022 there will be joint training of the military and joint exercises.
Vitaly Tsygankov noted that the bases will de facto appear, Artyom Shreibman - that de jure they will not.
Pavel Slyunkin gave the most accurate forecast: "No, but a temporary appearance of Russian equipment and personnel on the border with Ukraine is possible."
11. Will the epidemic of COVID-19 end in Belarus next year?
Belarusians continue to get sick with covid, but it can be safely stated that the epidemic of this disease in Belarus, as well as in most parts of the world, is over.
The end of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Belarus was predicted by 4 experts: Dmytry Balkunets, Pavel Slyunkin, Vital Tsygankov and Tatiana Chulitskaya.
What do the results say?
Commentary of Svoboda political commentator Yury Drakakhrust
It is clear that such predictions are to a large extent a game, fortune-telling on the grounds of coffee.
And their results are more a description of the sentiments of the analyst community than a prediction of what will actually happen.
The vocation of analysts is to explain the meaning of what is happening, not to guess what will happen.
None of the experts interviewed by Svaboda at the end of 2021 certainly predicted the war that would determine the entire course of events in 2022.
Only Alena Kudzko tentatively, answering one of the questions, noted that a certain scenario could occur in the event of an armed conflict between Belarus' neighbors.
The conflict happened.
But it is interesting what the experts agreed on, what the majority predicted in one way or another, albeit with reservations, and what they, again in solidarity, were wrong.
Half of the experts quite accurately predicted the ruble exchange rate at the end of the year: two got it right, another six - with some accuracy.
The alarmist expectations of the collapse of the ruble exchange rate, which experts had at the end of 2020, changed to more cautious forecasts at the end of 2021.
However, during the year the exchange rate fluctuated significantly, after the start of the war it fell significantly, then leveled off to the level of December last year, and in December of this year, another decrease began.
But the forecast was about the end of the year, and half of the experts made it quite accurate.
But the vast majority of experts agreed with the prime minister.
A good number of them noted that the surname of the head of the government is not important in the current system, nevertheless, the trend prediction is that Golovchenko will remain.
And so it turned out.
The results of the referendum were somewhat correctly predicted by everyone: according to official reports, it will take place and that Lukashenka's version of the Constitution will be announced by the one that won the majority.
To be honest, there was no intrigue here.
It is interesting that the vast majority, practically all, predicted that there will be no mass protests in 2022.
In fact, they were - on the day of the constitutional referendum, against the war.
Although they were less crowded than in 2020.
But probably the experts equally assessed the potential of the protest and its insane risks in the terrible conditions of almost Stalinist repressions.
Regarding the number of political prisoners, the majority were wrong, only 4 experts got it right.
Apparently, at the end of 2021, there were hopes (or illusions) that the rink of repression would roll more slowly in 2022 or even turn in the opposite direction.
It did not come true.
But with the migration crisis, most people guessed that it would end in 2022.
Its acuteness decreased already at the end of 2021.
Probably, many of the experts simply extrapolated the trend for the next year.
Everyone was wrong with the sanctions.
After all, no one for sure predicted the war and Belarus' involvement in it.
And the vast majority of the 6 rounds of sanctions in 2022 concerned punishment for participation in aggression against Ukraine.
This was not foreseen by anyone, that is why the forecasts in 2-3 packages turned out to be wrong.
A phone call to Lukashenka from the heads of the European Union or the United States was predicted by many.
Who allowed this at the end of 2021, they said that the reason could be an acute regional crisis.
A crisis in the form of a war happened, Emmanuel Macron called Lukashenka.
The precedent that explained such a forecast was the calls of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to Lukashenka in the midst of the migration crisis.
In previous years, the vast majority of experts predicted that there would be no sale of Belarusian state property to Russians during the year.
Last December, the majority of experts gave the same forecast, but it is no longer overwhelming.
The deep dependence on Russia, which Belarus fell into after 2020, prompted many experts to predict that Moscow will force Lukashenka to sell off the "family silver".
However, this did not happen.
The question about the Russian military base actually did not work at all.
It was a legacy of earlier bilateral relations, when Russia sought to create an official, legally legal military base.
In December 2021, the majority of experts correctly predicted that the official base, which would be called that, would not appear during 2022.
But many of the interviewees answered that the training and combat centers of the Air Force and Air Force are the same bases.
Several experts also predicted that the Russian military presence would significantly expand.
So it happened.
In February, according to NATO estimates, up to 30,000 Russian soldiers were concentrated in Belarus, and on February 24 they launched an offensive against Ukraine.
Now, in December 2022, up to 10,000 Russian soldiers are stationed in Belarus.
The vast majority of experts were wrong in their predictions about the covid epidemic, while the vast majority were right at the end of 2020, predicting that the epidemic will not end in 2021.
It did not end in 2021, but ended in 2022.
Some of the experts in December 2021 rightly noticed that if the pandemic ends in the world, it will end in Belarus as well.
It ended this year both in the world and in Belarus.
Despite all the conventionality of such calculations, I will still give an arithmetic balance of estimates.
Deducing the total accuracy, I gave 1 point to accurate or close to accurate predictions, 0 points to inaccurate ones.
For the forecast of the results of the February referendum, points were given for the accuracy of the assessment of the turnout, votes "for", votes "against" and the percentage of invalid ballots.
As a result, Pavel Slyunkin scored the most - 12 points.
The second place with 11 points was won by 4 experts — Valer Karbalevich, Alexander Klaskovsky, Vital Tsygankov and Artem Shreibman.
Other results of the year from Svoboda:
"This is the main crime of Lukashenka."
How the war in Ukraine changed Belarus
"Everything could have been worse."
The results of 2022 in Belarusian-Russian relations from Vadim Mazheika
Sapach, Kudasava, Bartosik, Znak.
The best books of 2022
People of resistance - "People of Freedom - 2022"
The Belarusian word of 2022 is war
Economic results of the year: Belarus has not seen such a drop in GDP since the 1990s
"Belarusian diplomacy has become an appendage of war."
Results of the year with Pavel Sliunkin
Yuri Drakakhrust
Radio Svaboda journalist
drakakhrusty@rferl.org
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