(Photo/Reuters)

According to the latest report by the research firm Counterpoint, this year’s mobile phone shipments will still be difficult to return to the level before the Covid-19 outbreak in the short term, which will also lengthen the average replacement cycle of the mobile phone market. Up to 43 months, a record high.

The reason for such a rare situation is that the global smartphone market is affected by multiple factors such as persistent high inflation, the Ukrainian-Russian war, geopolitics, and supply chains, as well as the new export control measures of the United States and China and weak consumption.

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In view of this, Counterpoint revised its previous forecast and lowered the forecast of mobile phone shipments in 2022 to 1.24 billion units.

Comparing the global smartphone shipments of 1.339 billion in 2021 and 1.29 billion in 2020, it is expected that the downward trend of global mobile phone shipments in 2022 is inevitable.

As for when mobile phone shipments are expected to stop falling and rise instead?

Looking forward to 2023 next year, Counterpoint expects that the shipments of the mobile phone market in the first half of the year will remain sluggish. It is predicted that it will not show a further growth trend until at least the third quarter of next year.

Correspondingly, the average replacement cycle in the mobile phone market next year will also be slightly shortened, but it is estimated that it will still reach more than 40 months.

Beginning in 2024, with the acceleration of the "popularization" of 5G devices around the world, it is expected that it will inject a wave of growth momentum into the 5G mobile phone market at low and mid-range prices.

In addition, as more brand manufacturers invest in the field of foldable smart phones and launch new products, it will also be one of the important keys to assist the 5G high-end mobile phone market to gain more market share.