The next three months will be crucial in Ukraine's struggle for independence from imperial Russia.

The findings will have major implications for global security, European development and transatlantic relations.

They will also have a direct impact in the Western Balkans.

There are three possible ways for Russia to invade Ukraine: Russian victory, a protracted stalemate, or Ukraine's victory.

Russia has already lost several battles and failed to take Kiev, the second largest city, Kharkhiv, or to replace the Ukrainian government.

However, Russian forces have expanded their control over the Donbas in eastern Ukraine and have occupied significant territories of the other two regions in southern Ukraine.

Despite heavy losses in troops and equipment, Putin is likely to use more military reserves to intensify the war.

Russia can declare victory after taking all of Donbas.

Putin can claim that his "limited military operation" has been successfully implemented, thus hiding Russia's failure to take any of the major cities.

He can count on the West to support a ceasefire even if it were to Russia's advantage, as this would reduce pressure on European economies and avoid a direct NATO confrontation.

Moscow, in turn, will wait for the sanctions to be lifted so that it can rebuild the economy and rebuild the military.

A Russian victory with the capture of a larger part of Ukraine would have greater impact and would encourage other imperial powers like China.

In Europe, in the broadest sense of the word, this would expand Moscow's influence and encourage allies, especially Serbia, to pursue an expansionist agenda.

The Kremlin can count on the West to compromise and push countries to hand over part of their territory or sovereignty to prevent another war.

Western fatigue from the war in Ukraine, then, could translate into more inclusive peace.

A protracted stalemate in the current war does not suit either Russia or Ukraine.

This would deplete resources and impoverish their armies indefinitely.

International sanctions will not be lifted and Europe's mobilization for energy independence from Russia will continue.

To some Western leaders, a protracted low-intensity war may seem like a safer option, as Russia's gradual military and economic decline would reduce the risk of a nuclear confrontation.

Quite differently, Ukraine's victory would have positive effects across Europe, including the Western Balkans.

Victory can be achieved in stages.

First, Ukrainian troops better equipped with long-range artillery, multi-launcher missiles and tanks would drive Russian forces out of the newly occupied territories.

Second, as foreign-acquired military equipment increases, the Ukrainian counter-offensive would liberate all of Donbas and destroy Russia's military infrastructure.

A third offensive would undertake the liberation of Crimea, at a time when the Russian economy is shrinking severely and the military is unable to supply troops and equipment to defend the peninsula.

When it is clear that Russia has lost the war, Moscow's global position will fall.

Instead of a superpower, the country will be perceived as a weak state and an unreliable partner.

Russia's current allies like Serbia and the Serb entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina will then be faced with a less difficult choice: support the loser or recognize the winner.

Moscow would be in a much weaker position to offer military assistance or diplomatic support to the "Serbian World" agenda, although it may continue its efforts to provoke conflict, to mask its failures.

Another important development will be Serbia's internal reaction to the Russian defeat, where the majority of the population still harbors illusions about its so-called "Slavic brother".

Denial and anger take time to disappear, but the obvious reality would be that Belgrade could no longer rely on Moscow to promote irredentism and deprive Kosovo of membership in international organizations.

After Putin loses the emperor's robe in a failed Russian state, Serbs in Bosnia will also feel weaker.

This would provide new opportunities to consolidate Bosnia and Herzegovina's integrity and advance towards NATO membership.

From a more inclusive point of view, the military victory of Ukraine, which manages to liberate its occupied territories, would send a strong message that attacks on independent states end in failure, that war crimes are punished, that NATO is united in confronting the aggressors and that the West is prepared for the dissolution of Russia.

Therefore, Ukraine must be supplied with all the necessary weapons that would accelerate its victory.

Ukraine's triumph will be a strategic victory for the West, as it will help overthrow the last empire that threatens European security.

The entire Balkan peninsula would benefit from Russia's imperial defeat and have increased positive prospects for EU integration and economic development.

/ Newspaper "Dita" /