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The third week of Omicron's reign is over. The fourth began. The base reproductive number today is 0.95. This is called the fiasco of His Majesty Omicron. This was warned on Facebook by the mathematician from the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and a former member of the NIGHT, Prof. Nikolay Vitanov.
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No super fire.
The trend of increasing new cases - broken.
The trend of increasing the occupancy of beds in hospitals - before breaking.
Trend of increasing mortality - unbroken.
He will break last.
The situation is as expected, "he said.
Prof. Vitanov with a warning about the peak of the fifth COVID wave
Here is the whole text that he posted on his Facebook account:
"Summary of the operational situation for the pandemic of 14 February 2022.
First of all, a happy holiday to anyone who celebrates anything.
The state of affairs is as follows:
The third week of Omicron's reign is over.
The fourth began.
The base reproductive number today is 0.95.
This is called the fiasco of His Majesty Omicron.
No super fire.
The trend of increasing new cases - broken.
The trend of increasing the occupancy of beds in hospitals - before breaking.
Trend of increasing mortality - unbroken.
He will break last.
The situation is as expected.
The huge Omicron wave that you observed in other countries did not happen in Bulgaria.
And we started firing him.
WARNING:
THE FAST BITCH BIRDS BORN THEM!
THE BATTLE IS NOT OVER YET.
BE CAREFUL WITH THE RELEASE OF THE MEASURES.
YOU KNOW THE TALE OF DROWNING AT THE END OF THE DANUBE.
WITH ENOUGH STUPIDITY, YOU CAN STABILIZE THE OMICRON WAVE SECOND PEAK SCENARIO.
FOLLOW THE MEASURES.
WE ARE GOING WELL, WE SHOULD NOT DEVIATE FROM THE RIGHT TRACT.
WITH THIS WAVE, THE FAST BITCH SYSTEM IS AS WRONG AS THE STALIN SYSTEM (TOTAL LOCKDOWN).
The set trajectory of the social system is that there will be no super fire, no crowded hospitals, no total lockdown.
You have been watching with your own eyes how the huge Bulgarian social system has been following this trajectory for four weeks now.
Whoever thinks it's easy, try to do it.
Seeing to get out of this trajectory is not very difficult.
You have to pour a little nonsense in the pot and the pot you will get a SECOND PICK.
Breaking the growth trend of the registered new cases per day - broken in the forecast period.
The base reproductive number today is 0.95.
The fiasco of Omicron.
Instead of expanding, the scope of the infection begins to shrink.
The secondary peak scenario is unstable at the moment.
Direction of efforts - to be kept unstable.
We have to be total idiots to stabilize the secondary peak scenario.
I wrote this yesterday, I am writing it today.
Tomorrow I can write it in capital letters.
The state of affairs in hospitals - the system follows the set trajectory: there are no overcrowded hospitals.
The expected pressure on the health care system is happening and will continue, but there are signs that we have reached the maximum pressure.
The reversal of the trend is expected to happen this week.
This will get us out of the peak.
Vitanov's November forecast - coming out of the peak of the fifth wave in the second half of February.
The total lockdown
.
Set trajectory of the social system: to go through the wave without imposing a total lockdown.
The system moves along the set trajectory.
Trends are breaking down according to forecasts.
There are no excessive measures, there are measures only where necessary.
Weakening of measures begins where they have done their job.
You should not rush here.
We stopped the increase in new cases in the middle of winter.
Let's not miss this victory.
Let's not miss the carp this time.
Mortality
- and here the system is moving as expected.
This is the latest trend that will break.
This is expected to begin in the second half of February.
There are objective factors that lead to high mortality and they cannot be eliminated by tactical measures.
You think that a total lockdown will reduce mortality.
Elsewhere, there was a total lockdown and hundreds of thousands of cases a day.
I have always said that a wrongly imposed total lockdown can be very harmful.
The first lockdown in our country - to call it the lockdown Ananiev - Mutafchiiski, was correctly imposed and he overcame the first wave - our problems began only in the fall of 2020. From the summer of 2020 imposing such a lockdown is impossible because the GURUTA's tales for the "harmless flu" are in the minds of a significant part of the people, which happened on the test.
This is where high mortality begins, and until this is overcome, mortality will be high and no total lockdown will bring it down.
In the end, we manage.
But it was cynical to say so.
Under the conditions in which we find ourselves, we are doing well and so far.
The only hope of the virus remains on the test part of the Bulgarian people to help him light the super fire.
This scenario is unstable so far.
Hold it like this and the intruder will not break through.
And today let's tell him: What's up doc?
The tactic is simple: We keep the current scenario stable and we will see the bill on this wave as well.
The base reproductive number fell below 1. Keep it up.
Omicron is on his knees.
Don't help him stand up.
Don't act on the QUICK BITCH system, too much euphoria is as harmful as too much pessimism.
I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you. "
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