The apocalypse is being postponed. Expectations are justified. This was written on Facebook by the mathematician of the former National Operational Headquarters for Combating Coronavirus and member of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Prof. Nikolay Vitanov on the occasion of the pandemic situation in the country. 

Everything on the topic:

Omicron - the new coronavirus variant 451

"You know my prediction from the beginning of November that Omicron will have to fight for 3-4 weeks to become dominant. If you remember, my early warning system detected it on December 23 last year. 3 weeks have passed since then. data is that the number of trials with Omicron is 40%. Things are going according to the forecast. Omicron is fighting for dominance. The fourth week in which he will achieve it begins. the worn-out number, foreign predictions to be attributed to me, so that there is something to talk about against Vitanov from the couch ", he added.

Prof. Nikolay Vitanov: The apocalypse is being postponed

Here is what the analysis of mathematics shows:

"Brief information about the operational situation for the pandemic on January 14, 2022. The situation is developing as expected. And they are, as you know: Omicron's new record in the number of registered cases per day, but the Apocalypse is postponed. Expectations are justified. Details follow. in short:

Why is the Apocalypse being postponed?

You know my prediction from the beginning of November that Omicron will need to fight for 3-4 weeks to become dominant.

If you remember, my early warning system detected it on December 23 last year.

3 weeks have passed since then.

The latest data show that the number of samples with Omicron is 40%.

Things are going according to plan.

Omicron is fighting for dominance.

The fourth week begins, in which he will achieve it.

THERE HAS NO CHANGE IN MY FORECAST SINCE THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER.

Come on, don't let my worn-out number spin, let foreign predictions be attributed to me, so that there is something to talk about against Vitanov from the couch.

Why is the apocalypse delayed?

The basic reproductive number today is 1.14. It is above 1, the range of infection is expanding, but it is below 1.3, there is no exponential expansion. It can be seen from the number of cases - there is no sharp jump. But that's what I expected. A little about counting the number. Everyone could count it. Yes, yes, but no, as a famous journalist said. First, there are several variants of this number, it is not clear whether the Internet counters will hit the right one. Secondly, to hit it, if they think that they will replace the values ​​of the parameters and hop - they will immediately get the correct value, they are quite wrong. That is why all sorts of values ​​are circulating in the media.

I have always said that data analysis and forecasts based on it are not a spoon for every mouth. I have been doing this for 25 years and I am not saying that I have achieved perfection. I know I know nothing, so I'm careful. for this number we have a well-established methodology as it is considered, we have checked it for 2 years and it works. I have been criticized for the very low values ​​I am telling you. You criticize it well, but if your values ​​are correct, we should have exploded with the number of new cases 10 times so far. There is no thunder. The conclusion is simple - follow the value I tell you and the analysis I do based on it. And who wants to criticize, to criticize. The statistics of the crocodile from the fable is that it eats over 90% of yurts. That's why he has 2 simple slogans: "Down with Vitanov! Get out of your way!" and "Come thousands of fools!"

Mortality data.

It is within expectations.

The omicron has not yet taken off.

The delta version still has it, and it's pretty deadly.

According to the forecasts, I write 75 - 85 per day on average for the following days until Monday.

Tuesday - more.

A few words about the cards.

First of all, the map according to the already old plan of the Ministry of Health.

You can see that almost everything there is already brown.

According to the old plan, we should have been in total lockdown.

We are not.

It's a bit of a joke, isn't it - say thank you.

You are neither like in France nor like in Greece.

The forecast map for the 14-day morbidity

- you can see that Omicron works, you can see where it has progressed the most.

It can be seen that he still has to drape in order to achieve dominance.

Well, to drape.

Our risk map.

Plovdiv still holds the situation.

Omicron is progressing, but as expected, not very fast. That's why we don't have 10,000 more cases a day.

We have a diffuse spread of the virus in all areas except Kardzhali, where the diffuse spread now flares up, now goes out. Practically we can say that diffuse distribution is available throughout the country and this is what awaits us at the end of the month.

Finally, the assessment of the situation is based on many factors. Do not think that only the occupancy of intensive care beds is considered. If I have to show a sense of humor again - Vitanov taught them these things for years in Germany, not seconds in Wikipedia. But you have a guiding criterion to tell you what the situation is. So far it is eaten, only in the areas around Ruse it is hotter. You remember Vitanov's prediction - a total lockdown until January 20 is not expected. But it also depends on you.

So, be careful, be healthy, don't get sick, don't get to the hospital.

Then there will be no total lockdown.

Believe me, with mind and reason, if we act, we can get away with it.

Whatever we do, it will be.

I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you. "

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Omicron - the new coronavirus variant 451

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Omicron - the new coronavirus variant

Prof. Nikolai Vitanov

Omicron - the new coronavirus variant