In Ukraine, in December, the non-cash market will be dominated by a regime of "managed flexibility" – the market situation will be formed according to supply and demand. However, December can be a truly indicative month for understanding where the exchange rate will move in 2024.
Channel 24 writes about it.
Next year, the exchange rate in the non-cash market will be formed taking into account supply and demand, as well as the NBU's tactics, which can give more "freedom" to the exchange rate.
Despite this, the announced stage of currency liberalization – "minimization of the multiplicity of exchange rates" – may fall on December.
According to economist Taras Lesovoy, the NBU will reduce the exchange rate difference between the interbank, commercial banks and exchange offices.
"It should be noted that free exchange rate formation on the interbank market is an opportunity for broader exchange rate dynamics: the currency can both grow and decrease in price, but such changes will not be abrupt. It can be assumed that in December, the exchange rate limits on the interbank market will be at a "wider" level of 36-38 hryvnia per dollar and 39-41 hryvnia per euro, and current fluctuations will not exceed 0.2 hryvnia. The difference between the buying and selling rates will also be within the November limits - no more than 0.1 hryvnia," he said.
According to the expert, the situation in the cash market will mirror the state of affairs in the non-cash market with the addition of 1-1.5% to the exchange rate on the interbank market.
However, it is expected that the inter-exchange rate difference will gradually decrease and by the end of December will be only 1% (minimizing the multiplicity of exchange rates).
"Another factor that will be more related to the cash market is seasonal (on the eve of the holidays, fluctuations in the cash market will be more noticeable than usual, because some citizens can sell part of the currency for holiday purchases). That is, we assume that the supply in the cash market may increase slightly - by 10-15% compared to November, which will also affect the reduction of the difference between the interbank and cash rates," Lesovoy explained.
According to his forecast, in December, the dollar exchange rate will be at the level of 37-38 hryvnia, and the euro - 39-41 hryvnia. The cost of cash will be formed according to a slight spread and current fluctuations at the level of 0.3 – 0.5 hryvnia.
To recap, a member of the NBU Council Vasyl Furman explained what will happen to the hryvnia in the near future.