Listen to the news
Neither the Chinese yuan nor the euro can challenge the supremacy of the U.S. dollar, even as it weakens in the international financial system. This is what John Butler, financier and author of the book "The Golden Revolution, Revisited", said in an interview with B2B Media, which are the organizers of the eighth edition of the NEXT DIFI 2023 Digital Finance Forum in Sofia.
"Yes, China and the size of its economy will at some point be a real contender, but it's a slow process," he said.
The capital control regime, the financier and investor believes, makes it practically difficult to use the yuan as a substitute for the US dollar.
As for the euro, the eurozone economy is indeed very large, but this is not a sufficient condition for turning the euro into the most significant currency in the world. And the reason, according to John Butler, is rooted in the internal imbalances of the economic and monetary union and the lack of a solid political basis, unlike the US dollar.
What are the three most reliable currencies?
The share of national economies in the world economy is an objective obstacle to the emergence of competition in the face of the Japanese yen, the British pound, the Indian rupee or the Brazilian real.
It is a fact, however, that processes are taking place in the global financial system from which it can be assumed that a change in the structure of the monetary system is imminent.
"Over the past 20 years, I have begun to observe some trends in the system of international finance, trade, capital flows and investment, on the basis of which we can assume that we will see a change in the structure of the monetary system. That is, the U.S. dollar may no longer be the single most significant reserve and transaction currency in the world," Butler said.
Before gaining practical experience in international finance in managerial positions in financial and investment companies, he accumulated an academic one in the field of history of economics. That is why historical parallels are important to him today.
What does the collapse of the ruble mean for the Russian economy in times of war?
Today, there are scientists who, based on different metrics, estimate that the share of the US economy has fallen below 20 percent in the global economy. This, he said, is significantly less than the influence of the United States in the world economy at the beginning of the 21st century.
The use of sanctions by the US as a tool for years has been at the heart of another trend that poses a risk and potential to accelerate the process of de-dollarization of the global financial system. In fact, this is a topical topic given the war in Ukraine, the interlocutor recalled. Sanctions are a tool that, in turn, reduces the possibility of using the US dollar in international trade.
John Butler summarized that the weakening role of the US dollar in the global financial system has been going on for years, but it is accelerating as a result of increased geopolitical tensions in the world.