The electricity shortage closer to the 2023/2024 heating season will be much lower than in the first quarter.
This was reported by the press service of the NBU.
According to Oleksii Shaban, Deputy Governor of the National Bank, the electricity shortage at the end of 2023 will be at the level of 5% or so. He noted that the deficit rate in the first quarter, after Russian attacks on energy infrastructure facilities, was 15%.
At the same time, the NBU expects a negative effect on economic activity that will not be as severe as in 2022 due to a possible shortage of electricity during the fourth quarter, as well as in early 2024. As Shaban noted, 1.5-2% of the deficit can be covered by importing electricity.
Oleksii Shaban clarified that at the beginning of the current 2023, the regulator predicted that the lack of electricity would have a more serious impact on the economy, and the negative impact would continue throughout the year. For example, according to the baseline scenario, the NBU planned a probable deficit of 15-18% in the fourth quarter of the year. However, similar indicators under the negative scenario reached 30-33%.
Earlier, Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, said that the greatest risk of being left without heating and electricity in winter is in two large cities. It is the capital of Ukraine Kyiv and the southern regional center of Odesa.