In October, the cash foreign exchange market will be formed by several important factors, but by all indications, the exchange rate corridor will be within the limits quite familiar to recent times.
This was stated in a comment to UNIAN by the head of the treasury department of Globus Bank Taras Lesovy.
The banker singled out the main factors that can both positively and under certain circumstances negatively affect the foreign exchange market. Among them, in particular, are the NBU's effective actions to maintain a balance between supply and demand and to implement a strategy for further liberalization of the foreign exchange market.
"We assume that the exchange rate will fluctuate within 37.5-40 UAH/$ and 40-43 UAH/€. At the same time, the difference between the buying and selling rates will be up to 0.3-0.4 UAH. And daily fluctuations will not exceed 0.3-0.5 UAH," he said.
According to Lesovyi, the return to a floating exchange rate is the most important change that may occur in October. Therefore, the cash market can react to such a change in the conjuncture instantly: the expert assumes that the exchange rate may increase slightly (within 5%), but will gradually return to the framework of the designated corridor.
The exchange rate will also be affected by the development of the economy against the backdrop of positive economic forecasts: both large businesses and SMEs, in particular through the participation of entrepreneurs in the state preferential lending program "5-7-9".
"Business activity means additional revenues to the country's budget. At the same time, lowering the discount rate to 20% and implementing a downward trend in interest rates on major credit and deposit banking products will encourage citizens to be more actively involved in lending and placing funds on deposits (because the "net" profit from deposits, depending on the term of the deposit, remains quite high - up to 6%)," Lesovyi said.
Another factor influencing the exchange rate is international financial support for Ukraine. According to the banker, it is extremely important for us to receive enough funds every month to repay part of the state budget expenditures and accumulate a sufficient amount of international reserves (the need for attracted funds is estimated at USD 3-3.5 billion per month). It is difficult to overestimate the importance of international financial support, because for 6 months of this year, the amount of revenues amounted to more than 49% of all revenues to the general fund of the state budget.
The expert also noted that on the eve of the heating season, the risks of damage to the power system and power outages increase sharply.
"We understand that the lack of electricity will affect almost all sectors of the economy, and therefore will become an additional circumstance that will put pressure on the cash exchange rate," Lesovyi said.
Thus, on the eve of the heating season, October may become one of the key months in the foreign exchange market, he predicts.
"However, the market is prone to rather optimistic expectations. That is why exchange rate fluctuations will be rather in the "usual" range - 37-38.5 UAH/$ and 40-42 UAH/€," the expert summed up.
To recap, the NBU obliged banks to strengthen control over the accounts of individuals with atypical activity.