The Chinese Academy of Economic Research released the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April.

(Photo by reporter Xu Ziling)

[Reporter Xu Ziling/Taipei Report] The Chung-Hua Economic Research Institute released the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) today (2nd). The seasonally adjusted PMI in April has contracted for two consecutive months. The index continued to fall by 4.5 percentage points to 42.8%. Ye Junxian, president of the Chinese Academy of Economics, said that the main reason is that the global environment is full of uncertainties, demand and destocking are not as expected, and the mentality of manufacturers has become more conservative.

PMI uses 50% as the line of prosperity and decline. The index above 50% represents economic expansion, and the index below 50% represents contraction. It includes 5 component indicators: new orders, manpower employment, production index, supplier delivery time, inventory .

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Chen Xinhui, an assistant researcher at the Chinese Academy of Economics, analyzed that in the second quarter of previous years, the layout of new products before the launch of new products in the second half of the year was laid out. The price of electricity was raised in April, and some companies that have received orders said that they would finish production in March, so the production index was interrupted for two consecutive months and turned from expansion to contraction.

Chen Xinhui pointed out that the performance in the first quarter was better than expected, but the performance in the first month of the second quarter was not as good as expected, mainly due to the increase in interest rates, the slowdown of China's recovery, the retracement of raw material prices, the lower-than-expected capital expenditure of TSMC, and the increase in electricity prices, etc. , making the speed of domestic and foreign orders slow down significantly compared with March and wait and see, impacting manufacturers' expectations and procurement policies.

Why is the economic climate more stalemate than imagined?

Wang Jianjian, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Economics, said that because the two major saviors are gone: the United States used to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, but it caused inflation and was caught in a dilemma; China used to regulate the economy with government spending, but now its fiscal policy is constrained by debt .

Regarding inflation, Wang Jianjian pointed out that the country puts too much pressure on the central bank. The central bank must fight inflation while taking into account economic growth. "One hand cannot hold two plates." Economic growth should rely on fiscal policies, such as sacrifice Anti-business cycle tools and investment offset tools should also be planned for industrial policies to promote industrial growth.

Wang Jianjian also mentioned that under the technology control of the United States, China will make every effort to develop mature manufacturing processes. At that time, TSMC will not suffer, but it will crowd out mature manufacturing processes and upstream IC designs such as UMC and PSMC. Therefore, everyone is grateful for TSMC. , to understand that other semiconductor companies may not have such a good outlook.

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