2019-2022 Monthly Number of Egg Crates
From the data of the past few years, it can be found that the annual egg production is almost seasonal. At the beginning of the year, due to the Lunar New Year, many laying hens were eliminated, and the production of eggs was relatively small. It increased after April and May, and the average daily production at the end of the year most.
Although the daily and monthly production of eggs is uneven, the supply and demand were naturally adjusted in the past, but this year it has become a hot topic for everyone to grab eggs!
In addition to the lack of eggs, there should be other reasons that need to be clarified.
Egg prices have risen over the past year due to the rising cost of raising chickens and reduced supply of chickens, and this is not unique to Taiwan.
According to the statistics of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the price of eggs in February 2023 rose by 55.4% compared with the same period of the previous year. The Czech Republic and Hungary both exceeded 80%.
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The price of eggs is on the market every week, and the price is rising steadily. Breakfast shops and snack bars are complaining. It seems that everyone is dissatisfied with the pain of not being able to adjust the eggs.
What caused even more controversy was that not only did the price of eggs go up, but consumers often couldn't buy eggs in the hypermarkets they were used to buying.
The difference in the number of eggs produced per day should not be the only reason for lack of eggs
Why is there a lack of eggs now?
Of course it is due to the current low production, but from the data of the past few years, it can be found that the number of egg-laying boxes varies greatly from year to year and every month. It is not a special case that the number of egg-laying boxes is low at the beginning of this year.
According to statistics from the Chicken Association of the Republic of China, the average daily number of egg boxes in 2019 was close to 110,000 boxes, but the average daily number of egg boxes in January was only 94,427 boxes, and even less in February, with an average daily output of 92,545 boxes. The monthly average exceeds 100,000 boxes, and in November and December it exceeds 120,000 boxes.
The situation in 2020 is similar, with the least in January and February, falling to just over 110,000 boxes, but in the last two months, it exceeded 120,000 boxes.
The output curve in 2022 is similar in shape, only 2021 is special, and the average monthly output for the whole year is around 120,000 boxes, and the difference is relatively small.
In 2019, Taiwan's population reached its highest level, at 23,603,121 according to statistics from the Ministry of the Interior. After that, it experienced negative growth for three consecutive years.
Although it is estimated from data such as egg production in 2021, the average number of eggs eaten by Chinese people per day has increased to 0.96, and the demand elasticity is small, but the population decline and the rise in egg prices have somewhat affected demand, and there has been an imbalance between supply and demand in the past Adjusting the previous example, the average daily output according to the statistics of the Council of Agriculture is still above 110,000 boxes. We should continue to investigate why there is a shortage of eggs now?
Eggs have a shelf life, and personal consumption will not be postponed. It is unlikely that you will not be able to eat this week, and you will be able to make up for it next week, so the lack of eggs will not accumulate. The supply of eggs in these two months is not enough, and next month Supply and demand may have to be recalculated.
From an economic point of view, the demand elasticity of eggs is low, that is, when the price changes, the change in the quantity demanded will be relatively small. In this case, price increases are conducive to increasing profits.
The reason for the lack of eggs is either that the data on the number of eggs produced is wrong, the production and marketing mechanism is malfunctioning, or some people take advantage of consumers' expectations of price increases and egg shortages to make profits.
Principles respect the market mechanism and irrational panic should be eliminated
When commodities are rare and available, price suppression usually only creates new circulation channels, so it should be handled with caution.
Borrowing the central bank's management of the foreign exchange market, "Basically respect market functions, and the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar is determined by market supply and demand. Only when special factors such as sporadic, seasonal and irrational expectations interfere with the market, it will be moderately adjusted. Avoid excessive fluctuations in exchange rates.” If you want to observe, you should be comprehensive, so as to eliminate the chance of being troubled as soon as possible.
After the transaction is completed, although the quantity sold and the quantity bought are the same, there should be no commodity whose supply and demand are exactly the same beforehand. When the supply and demand are out of balance, the equilibrium quantity is usually adjusted by price. People's livelihood consumer goods are special, although they cannot be let go, they cannot Everything is regulated, but if the information is more complete and there are real data from the source to the consumer, perhaps the controversy will be reduced.
The egg problem has institutional factors and special professions, but from an economic point of view, there are many doubts, and only by finding out the reasons behind it can it be truly resolved.
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