The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its forecast for the economy of Ukraine for the period from 2023 to 2027.

This is stated in the IMF report on the four-year extended financing program (EFF) for Ukraine for 15.6 billion. 

According to IMF estimates, in 2022 the gross domestic product of Ukraine will decrease by 30.3%.

For 2023, it is forecasted to fall by 3.0% to grow by 1.0%.

In 2024, the growth will be 3.2%, in 2025 - 6.5%, in 2026 - 5.0%, in 2027 - 4.0%.

Inflation in 2023 was 26.6%.

In 2023, it will be 20.0%, in 2024 - 12.5%, in 2025 - 8.0%, in 2026 - 6.0%, in 2027 - 5.0%.

According to the IMF,

real wages

(adjusted for inflation) in 2022 fell by 21.1%.

In 2023, it will decrease by another 2.0%.

In 2024, growth will be 2.5%, in 2025 - 5.0%, in 2026 - 5.0%, in 2027 - 4.0%.

At the same time, Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to have devastating economic and social consequences.

Active hostilities are concentrated in the east and south of Ukraine, and continuous attacks on critical energy facilities in winter have led to serious social losses.

Civilian casualties continue to rise and more than a third of the population has been displaced.

The war has taken its toll on the economy, with activity down by about 30% by 2022, much of the country's fixed capital destroyed, and poverty on the rise.

We will remind you that 

the National Bank of Ukraine 

predicts a rise in prices due to Russian attacks on the energy system of Ukraine, which leads to a shortage of electricity.

According to the government's calculations, government revenues in 2023 will be almost half as much as expenditures.

The contraction of the Ukrainian economy and inflation this year will be so significant that, in comparison, even a slight improvement will turn into an increase.

Therefore, the budget for 2023 foresees GDP growth by 4.6% in real terms and by 37% in nominal terms.

At the same time, 

the average salary will approximately be 18.5 thousand hryvnias, inflation may reach 30%, the average annual exchange rate of the dollar will fluctuate around 42 hryvnias.

This year, as expected, 

the Ukrainian economy may shrink by 30-40%, and inflation will exceed 33%.

 The huge budget deficit is primarily explained by huge expenditures on security and defense.

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